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TMC Coronavirus Ghoul Pool

What will be the overall death rate in the US attributed to the Coronavirus in 2020?


  • Total voters
    53
  • Poll closed .
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Looks like covid deaths could be underreported. And if someone doesn’t go to the doctor and they die of other health issues is it a covid death? I’m thinking of that month when a lot was shut down.

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and ...

Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths occurred from late January through October 3, 2020, with 198,081 (66%) excess deaths attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino persons.
 
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Excess deaths are attributable to the lockdowns not the virus.

Lol.


Looks like the crowd may be right on this horrible pool. 330k (0.1%) of the population looks quite possible at this point, by the end of 2020 (for sure it will be over 330k, no problem, if we count deaths that occurred in 2020, rather than were reported in 2020). Obviously when all is said and done we'll likely be over 400k, before the vaccine starts to cut into mortality. What a disaster.
 
When suicides, motorcycle accident, alcohol poisoning have been labeled covid deaths we need some skepticism. Why are they wasting a swap on someone in their 20-30s with a gun shot wound to the head or a .32 blood alcohol level?
One of my Dad's friends is fighting his local M.E. over labeling his mother who died of brain cancer as covid death despite never being tested......
Flu kills terminal cancer patients every year but there isn't massive pressure to label all those as flu.

The lockdowns will be found to be the real killer, suicides have spiked as have substance abuse, the financial deviation wont be over for a long time and that will keep killing.

Even the people putting in in place the life restrictions done believe, you see the Mayor who just got busted for javong a 20guest wedding for his family while he had a 10person limit then recorded a message to tell people to stay home FROM THE RESORT IN MEXICO they took a private jet to after the wedding........ Makes Newsom's pal's birthday party seem downright responsible.
The lockdowns are going to be shown to take many times more years of life.
You see the story about the Canadian woman who chose doctor assisted suicide vs. another lockdown?
 
When suicides, motorcycle accident, alcohol poisoning have been labeled covid deaths we need some skepticism. Why are they wasting a swap on someone in their 20-30s with a gun shot wound to the head or a .32 blood alcohol level?
One of my Dad's friends is fighting his local M.E. over labeling his mother who died of brain cancer as covid death despite never being tested......

You see the story about the Canadian woman who chose doctor assisted suicide vs. another lockdown?

Lol. Yeah, ok, it's hard to argue with that strong anecdata.

Flu kills terminal cancer patients every year but there isn't massive pressure to label all those as flu.

That wouldn't show up as excess deaths though, right? We're not talking about COVID deaths here! We're talking about excess deaths. Come on! THINK!

If you look at excess deaths (readily available from the CDC website), one could reasonably conclude that COVID deaths likely represent an undercount. Let me know if you have some evidence that shows that lockdowns are causing these excess deaths. I'm waiting!

The lockdowns will be found to be the real killer, suicides have spiked as have substance abuse
The lockdowns are going to be shown to take many times more years of life.

Source?

What is a lockdown, anyway? I'm not familiar with it, as I have not experienced one. I can go out and get food from my restaurants, mostly do what I want as long as it's outside, hang out with family, occasionally hang out outside with a limited number of friends, etc. I mean, it definitely sucks for businesses that are strongly affected; we should print some money and give it to them. And we should open all the elementary schools, test every single student every day with fast antigen tests, and proceed based on data on viral spread. We should be doing 50 million fast antigen tests in this country every day. It's a no-brainer. It might help bring virus levels down to a level that some of these businesses could open back up. Oh well.

Anyway, this is arguably the wrong thread for this topic, though we are talking about the excess deaths (which are substantially greater than the COVID death count).

Even the people putting in in place the life restrictions done believe, you see the Mayor who just got busted for javong a 20guest wedding for his family while he had a 10person limit then recorded a message to tell people to stay home FROM THE RESORT IN MEXICO they took a private jet to after the wedding........ Makes Newsom's pal's birthday party seem downright responsible.

Not sure what the irresponsible & hypocritical politicians have to do with the excess death count.
 
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it's possible we go over 330,000 with the pace accelerating but not guaranteed. Currently in the 0.07% to 0.1% band which only 2 people voted for. Heading towards the 0.1% to 0.2% band that 11 people voted for.


View attachment 608911

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wisdom of the crowds for the win, 320,845 + about 3,000 per day gets us to the 11 voters for 0.1% to 0.2% by about Christmas eve/day. Then on to about 350,000 by new years.
upload_2020-12-19_18-58-53.png
 
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Officially above 0.1% of the population a couple of days ago. Sitting at 335,000+ with about 3,500 deaths per day expected for the last week of the year. No chance of breaking into the next voting bracket.

View attachment 620812

Crowds are really good at this stuff!

Seems like an appropriate thread to wish Merry Christmas to everyone!
 
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well this thread just got 50 disagrees by OrthoSurg with no explanation why.
Sorry, that was just a joke about how I disagree with my OR time being cut 90%.
Happy you guys noticed, I changed it and agree with everything you say.

getting vaccinated tomorrow, hope I don’t get an adverse reaction. I disagree with adverse reactions to vaccines.

happy holidays ;)
 
Sorry, that was just a joke about how I disagree with my OR time being cut 90%.
Happy you guys noticed, I changed it and agree with everything you say.

getting vaccinated tomorrow, hope I don’t get an adverse reaction. I disagree with adverse reactions to vaccines.

happy holidays ;)

I hope that people can get their necessary orthopedic surgeries (and other surgeries) in a safer environment as all the staff are vaccinated. Hopefully just a month or two...

Hope your vaccination goes smoothly. Seems very likely to be fine.
 

First: what shutdown?

"Based on the expected remaining lifetimes of these COVID-19 patients, and given that 40 percent of deaths are in nursing homes, the disease has been responsible for 800,000 lost years of life so far. "

Lol. The author should show his work. 2 years of life lost per COVID-19 death??? Most plausible estimates (and there are multiple estimates now) put average years of life lost per COVID-19 death at about 10-11 years per death. And I think we can all agree this is MUCH more plausible, given the age profile of the COVID-19 victims. (Note the date of the article was May 25th, so their multiplier was...who knows what...Dr. Scott "Herd Immunity" Atlas didn't show his work here. Maybe 8 years?)

Anyway, we're up to 4 million life-years lost due to COVID-19 now. And who knows how many more due to neglected medical care due to the pandemic (excess deaths look like they will likely be nearly 500k for 2020).

We should stop people from getting COVID, so we don't have to keep losing so many productive years of life. Also that would mean we could keep everything open, so we don't have a shutdown. It also means we don't have overwhelmed hospitals, and reduced OR hours (see above), so people can receive elective and essential care which improves quality of life and longevity. This is not a difficult concept. Eradicate the virus, and move on. It's not like the virus has any say in the matter. The virus is not "going to virus," as the COVIDiots like to say.

I have been postponing an appointment to have a surgeon look at my shoulder for a possible SLAP tear repair, which is causing me pain, because it is not worth the risk to me or my family. This is a minor inconvenience to me, with resultant continuous pain, but imagine for people with more serious issues... We need to get rid of coronavirus! We should try!
 
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That’s right. Let’s say 400,000 dead and assume these folks would have lived another 5 years on average but were struck down early due to Covid. That’s 2 million years lost right there.

Also, the authors of that self centered article should be called out and remembered for the worthless death mongering people they are.

Scott W. Atlas is a physician and senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Follow him on Twitter @SWAtlasHoover.

John R. Birge is a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.


Ralph L Keeney is professor emeritus in business at Duke University and in engineering at the University of Southern California.

Alexander Lipton is a visiting professor and dean's fellow at the Jerusalem Business School of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
 
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