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To Buy an X or Not Now?

Discussion in 'Model X' started by Leftysmasher, Jun 18, 2018.

  1. Leftysmasher

    Leftysmasher Member

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    I know this might sound a little panicky since I am due to pick up my new X in a week or so - with all the negative press and stock shorting and renewed conversation about Tesla going bust in a couple of years, is it a good idea to invest in an X now or wait till the other big companies (BMW, Audi, VW) to come out with their own version of EV's in a more matured market that we could be in a couple of years? I don't mean to open a can of worms but purchasing an X is a significant amount of money and so I thought I would pose the question. I do realize this is a Tesla forum but would be good to hear balanced opinions.
     
  2. mkspeedr

    mkspeedr Member

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    I love seeing this question - especially after this weekend.

    Buy it. Simple. I returned a P85D for an X and over the last month fell in love with the car. Is it perfect no. Is it better than every other car I would buy - YES!


    The other manufactures should be embarrassed how good the X is compared to everything else.
     
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  3. Sandollars

    Sandollars I bleed Cardinal

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    So far, it's the ONLY car brand that gets better with age.
     
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  4. Leftysmasher

    Leftysmasher Member

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    So let me clarify, I totally understand how great it is and how much better it is to its competitors otherwise I would not have put a deposit down for it. But, the question is what is the "RISK" factor in buying such an expensive car not knowing clearly the future of the company given the recent spade of news, mostly negative of course that never seems to stop. Clearly the company is under pressure (not profitable in 15 years) and the million dollar question is can Tesla withstand this pressure and make it? I guess no one knows the answer to that question - or do we? ;-)
     
  5. mkspeedr

    mkspeedr Member

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    It is not a risk. The brand is so strong - the following so great - the product so much better...someone would buy them if things went south.

    Apple could buy them and give Musk a treasure chest of cash to take over the world.

    but I would never bet against Musk.
     
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  6. Tam

    Tam Active Member

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    #6 Tam, Jun 18, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2018
    Most TSLA shorts lose money throughout the years as the 2010 to 2018 chart below:

    upload_2018-6-18_14-21-3.png



    The news didn't just got "renewed". It has been circulating since the inception. The only ones gone bust were all U.S. car manufacturers except for only two: Ford and Tesla so far!

    Tesla was at risk of going bust when it was a private company because there were only limited amount of money that your friends and families could help you out but once Tesla has become public, its risk is so minimal because the public has so much money to invest in Tesla at any time since the IPO in the year of 2010.


    Why wait for science fiction in future when you can pay Tesla to access its incremental beta innovations?
     
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  7. verygreen

    verygreen Curious member

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    If you are really-really afraid - just lease the car. You'll pay some premium vs the outright purchase, but then in case of catastrophic problems it won't be your problem in 2-3 years. Think of it as of insurance (not super cheap and you never want for the insurance to pay, but you still pay them).
     
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  8. Plan B

    Plan B Active Member

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    "Invest in an X".

    A car should never be an investment.

    Rumors of Tesla going under have been around for years, if you want an X then buy one, they are great cars and seem to still be in high demand.
     
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  9. Tam

    Tam Active Member

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    #9 Tam, Jun 18, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2018
    It's the same old rhetoric of "no profit".

    Profit is 1 way to evaluate a company's strength.

    A matured company who does not need to build any more assembly lines for Model 3 or who does not need to pay for research and developments..., they don't need to pay for those costs anymore so they can use that amount as profits.

    Growth companies like Tesla don't want to use the profits to pay dividends to shareholders but they want to use that profit amount to pay for building additional factories, R & D .... so the net become a loss.

    Investors who understand it would buy a growth stock and still get benefits from the company's net loss because they know that if the profits were not used for growth, they would get a net gain. Thus, the stock value gets higher.

    If you bought 100 TSLA stocks at $17 in 2010 for a sum of $1,700, now it becomes $37,083! That's profits for investors, not by dividends but by growth.
     
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  10. ewoodrick

    ewoodrick Active Member

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    A) Just do it!

    B) Risk? Well, buying any car todays seems to come with a risk. Ford stopped building their cars, Volkswagen is amazingly still alive, Mercedes is worried about losing significant car sales to Tesla.

    No matter what, Tesla is now making great Model 3s and still ramping production. They've still got a LOT of reservations to fulfill.
    Elon has proved with SpaceX that the "it can't work" works better than other solutions.

    I'm pretty sure that all the neigh saying is a classic Wall Street maneuver just to rattle the price to move shares.

    Buy the car, miss the road noise, turn up the music and ignore the stock market. And just have a lot of damn fun!
     
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  11. Sonic_78

    Sonic_78 Member

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    To the OP: this is a question that rattled around most new buyers head. Upon delivery though, it’s a non thought.
     
  12. Dutchie

    Dutchie Member

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  13. Leftysmasher

    Leftysmasher Member

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    Great comments and thanks. My biggest concern is the "growth potential" say in the next 10 years since the top 3 companies have not even jumped into the EV category yet. In other words how long will Musk's hand holding the street work (hence the shorts losing money)? Is the bubble going to burst?
     
  14. CommackRoss

    CommackRoss Member

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    Just received mine last Saturday. Best car by far I’ve ever owned. I feel I’ve permanently upgraded to ultra first class.

    The future is uncertain for everything and everyone. Enjoy life!
     
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  15. Tam

    Tam Active Member

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    It is true that Tesla has never made any ANNUAL profit, but it has proven that just by manipulating the funding allocations, it could produce profits if it wants to:

    Tesla hits first profitable quarter ever

    A QUARTERLY profit of $11 million for 2013-Q1!

    Tesla will be fine as long as the public investors are agreeing with its strategy such as company loss for a gain in growth.

    Just like when Apple lost Steve Jobs, that's not the end of the company.

    One individual like Elon Musk might be very instrumental in a company's growth but if something happens to him, the company still goes on. By then, It might not be a growth company anymore but it might be a boring and matured profitable one in future.

    Tesla bubble will burst when the public investors refuse to supply cash when it needs.

    The public does homework so it is unlikely to be scared by the shorts, ever!

    Thus, I believe the possibility of Tesla goes bust in future is very slim unless there's some kind of scandals as in other matured companies like Volkswagen emissions scandal.
     
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  16. ChadS

    ChadS Petroleum is for sissies

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    #16 ChadS, Jun 18, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2018
    This is true...but it is true for every company. The future is always unknown.

    Before I bought my Roadster in 2009, everyone I knew tried to talk me out of it because...well, the exact same concerns you just listed. People are always much more concerned about new risks than familiar ones, even if the new risk is the same size or greater.

    Tesla has some very real execution risk, but for the past decade they have managed it pretty well. Even if they don't, as pointed out above, the brand is an extremely valuable asset and somebody would snap it up. Customers might hardly notice, like when GM went bankrupt.

    There will be competitive risk when others try to compete, but so far Nissan is the only other manufacturer pursuing a volume car strategy and they are not aiming to compete directly with Tesla. People that insist competition will take share and strangle Tesla generally assume EV sales will remain tiny and all manufacturers will fight over that tiny sliver - ignoring the fact that if the other manufacturers produce large quantities of EVs as good as Tesla's, they will all be taking share from the ICE market.

    What is the risk of buying from a car company that is not investing in EVs? I would not buy a car from them.
     
  17. Remital55

    Remital55 Member

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    1)- Tesla is FAR ahead with Battery production and battery costs.
    2)- Supercharger network is exploding! No other system is even within sight. Traveling with a Tesla is pleasure. Supercharging system takes the worry out of Range Anxiety.
    For these two reasons, Tesla will continue to lead the industry for at LEAST the next 5-7 years,Without making any further technological advancements, which we all know, is not going to be.
     
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  18. P85_DA

    P85_DA Supporting Member

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  19. Gen3

    Gen3 Member

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    This is probably the least risky time to buy a Tesla. Elon has warned the short sellers about pending “burn of the century”. Last time he warned Shorts of a “Tsunami of hurt” the stock increased over 400% the following year.

    They will have a big loss this quarter with less deliveries and extra compensation for those laid off. Next quarter deliveries will far exceed anything they’ve done before.

    I personally predict at least 8k units per week by end of q3 and 10k by end of q4. Stock is going up and Tesla will be profitable.
     
  20. jelloslug

    jelloslug Active Member

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    #20 jelloslug, Jun 18, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2018
    If you are waiting for one of the big German car companies to come out with a real competitor to the X, you are going to be waiting for a long time.
     
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