To FSD or not FSD….that is the question…

[K5TRX]

...Only so much can be improved with OTA updates.

That's not the case with Tesla FSD. I got the HW3 computer for free on my Model 3. Others are getting free camera upgrades and HW3 computers on their Model S's and X's.

I am betting FSD will require HW4 and better cameras yet. I bet we get it for free.

But Full Self Driving will work in every edge and corner case. FSD will have to work in rainstorms, sleet, hail, snow, sunsets blinding the B pillar cameras, and leaves covering the pavement.

Physics prevents vision only from seeing through solids.

 

[AndreP]

That's not the case with Tesla FSD. I got the HW3 computer for free on my Model 3. Others are getting free camera upgrades and HW3 computers on their Model S's and X's.

I am betting FSD will require HW4 and better cameras yet. I bet we get it for free.

But Full Self Driving will work in every edge and corner case. FSD will have to work in rainstorms, sleet, hail, snow, sunsets blinding the B pillar cameras, and leaves covering the pavement.

Physics prevents vision only from seeing through solids.

Yeah I’m just talking about everything else in the car that’s not tied to FSD. Batteries are improving, electric power trains are improving, other tech is improving at a crazy rate, this whole space is still in its infancy. You may save money in the FSD upgrades, but then you’re stuck using a vehicle that was produced when the all this other stuff is still in the early stages.

Some people here have paid for FSD many times over since 2016 because they’re constantly upgrading. That’s fine if you don’t mind spending the money, but I don’t see any reason not to wait for EV tech to mature if you’re more budget-conscious. I think getting a more polished vehicle in the end would be worth whatever price increases FSD may or may not see in the future.

 

[EVNow]

I don’t see any reason not to wait for EV tech to mature if you’re more budget-conscious.

Because you don’t want to burn oil and be a part of the problem ?

 

[golfcart]

I would not recommend purchasing it for $10k. I can count on one hand the number of times I have actually used any feature that is not part of standard autopilot and found it useful. Standard autopilot keeps you in your lane, holds a steady speed, and maintains a reasonable distance behind the car in front of you and it is awesome on road trips or even during a long daily commute. FSD features like summon and auto lane change are cool to show your friends a couple of times but really serve very little purpose in real life. Navigate on Autopilot really doesn't do anything useful that a moderately attentive driver with the navigation enabled wouldn't already be doing.

I will be out of warranty on my 2018 Model 3 in September and my hopes that this car will ever "drive itself" during the useful life of the vehicle are diminished each year. Honestly, if Tesla offered me a decent partial refund credit on FSD I would take it in a heartbeat and put the money towards a powerwall to use as a backup source during outages. I love the car, don't get me wrong. I just think that particular upgrade is a waste of money currently and there is no real timetable for when the car will actually "drive itself".

 

[AndreP]

Because you don’t want to burn oil and be a part of the problem ?

You can buy an EV for that, I just wouldn't pay $10k for something like FSD under the threat that it'll increase in price in the future because the EVs of the future will be built on other big advances in areas that won't be upgraded with the FSD package.

I'd wait for FSD to actually be a usable product with no Beta, no Safety Score hoops to jump through, no stressing over strikes and having your functionality revoked. Buy it on a newer, much more polished form of EV with the latest battery / engine / etc tech and then let that drive itself into the ground.

 

[alee]

I would not recommend purchasing it for $10k. I can count on one hand the number of times I have actually used any feature that is not part of standard autopilot and found it useful. Standard autopilot keeps you in your lane, holds a steady speed, and maintains a reasonable distance behind the car in front of you and it is awesome on road trips or even during a long daily commute. FSD features like summon and auto lane change are cool to show your friends a couple of times but really serve very little purpose in real life. Navigate on Autopilot really doesn't do anything useful that a moderately attentive driver with the navigation enabled wouldn't already be doing.

Interesting that you feel this way. From my experience, NoA and auto lane change are ridiculously well polished, and things I use all the time. Tapping the turn signal and knowing the car is going to nail that lane change is great - also highlights the blindspot car on the screen. NoA has been super helpful on unfamiliar drives, and really does come into its own with FSD beta.

Fully agree summon is a parlor trick.

 

[golfcart]

Interesting that you feel this way. From my experience, NoA and auto lane change are ridiculously well polished, and things I use all the time. Tapping the turn signal and knowing the car is going to nail that lane change is great - also highlights the blindspot car on the screen. NoA has been super helpful on unfamiliar drives, and really does come into its own with FSD beta.

Fully agree summon is a parlor trick.

The features you mention work fine they just don't do anything particularly useful in my opinion because I still need to pay attention, approve the lane changes, and engage the manual controls for lots of things. How hard is it to change lanes manually anyways? You turn the steering wheel a couple of degrees for 2 seconds and its over. How hard is it to realize that the car in front of you is moving slower than you and decide to pass it? How hard is it to listen to the NAV directions and go where it tells you? I'd rather the car had a decent blind spot warning (like almost every other new vehicle on the road currently has) to be honest. It just doesn't strike me as particularly useful.

I can't speak on FSD beta because I don't have access to it but nothing that it currently does is worth even close to $10k in my opinion. If I could take a nap and wake up when I get there it would be worth $10k. But that's just me... opinions will vary.

 

[alee]

The features you mention work fine they just don't do anything particularly useful in my opinion because I still need to pay attention, approve the lane changes, and engage the manual controls for lots of things. How hard is it to change lanes manually anyways? You turn the steering wheel a couple of degrees for 2 seconds and its over. How hard is it to realize that the car in front of you is moving slower than you and decide to pass it? How hard is it to listen to the NAV directions and go where it tells you? I'd rather the car had a decent blind spot warning (like almost every other new vehicle on the road currently has) to be honest. It just doesn't strike me as particularly useful.

Of course this can be argued for self-driving all around. It's not hard to drive, follow traffic, keep in a lane and pass as needed. But the reality is nobody drives at 100% attention, 100% of the time. The value in these systems isn't here to support laziness... it's to ensure that even when you missed the car in the left lane because your TPMs alarm went off and you got distracted, the car kept you safe.

For me this is the true value of this technology: a level of assistance that levels out the peaks and valleys of your own attentiveness and smooths them out. Certainly for highway, I am at a point where I prefer AP/NoA on all the time. I legitimately feel safer. I even have the navigation audio prompts turned off at this point.

With city streets FSD, that stuff is definitely still very rough. We're still years away, even if sometimes it does all the right things.

 

[golfcart]

Of course this can be argued for self-driving all around. It's not hard to drive, follow traffic, keep in a lane and pass as needed. But the reality is nobody drives at 100% attention, 100% of the time. The value in these systems isn't here to support laziness... it's to ensure that even when you missed the car in the left lane because your TPMs alarm went off and you got distracted, the car kept you safe.

For me this is the true value of this technology: a level of assistance that levels out the peaks and valleys of your own attentiveness and smooths them out. Certainly for highway, I am at a point where I prefer AP/NoA on all the time. I legitimately feel safer. I even have the navigation audio prompts turned off at this point.

With city streets FSD, that stuff is definitely still very rough. We're still years away, even if sometimes it does all the right things.

Your point is well taken and if you think that is worth $10k then by all means pay it... I personally don't think it is worth near that much and the increased safety from features that are not included in standard-autopilot is limited. If the Tesla had a decent blind spot warning (like almost every other post 2018 car on the road) the additional safety from the lane change feature would be basically zero IMO.

Everyone is quick to forget that all of these features like Auto Lane Change, Auto Steer, Auto Park, and Summon were part of EAP and that FSD specifically said "In the future, Model 3 will be capable of conducting trips with no action required by the person in the drivers seat." The goalposts have moved many times since then and I can't recommend that someone pay a large sum of cash for a feature that may or may not work during the useful lifetime of their vehicle.

For $10k I want my f'n robotaxi... and I want it to work when I pay for it not possibly 5 or 10 years down the road.

 

[alee]

Your point is well taken and if you think that is worth $10k then by all means pay it...

My perspective is skewed since I bought EAP in 2018 and then got FSD when it was $5k. I *think* I'd buy FSD again, but I'd have to think hard about $10k vs monthly subscription.

 

[ethanfl79]

I wouldn't recommend anyone pay the $10k anymore now that the $199/month subscription is out. Just subscribe for a month or two, try it, and if you don't use the features (which you probably won't), then end it. Down $400 instead of $10k and you still got to use the "FSD" for a while.

As for when it's ACTUALLY going to be useful? That's still going to be quite a while.

 

[Fernand]

My son put it very well 3 years ago when I was debating what to get on the Model 3. He said "if you're going to buy a Tesla, for Xist's sake, that's what it's all about. Get all the automation it's capable of". If you can afford a full Tesla, and enjoy being part of something new, by all means get it. It's silly to spend the money on a half a Tesla. NOA has gotten so good I can't imagine driving on freeways without it. With FSD Beta, it's becoming a seamless continuum between freeways, unprotected highways, and streets.

Yeah, Level 5 is a Red Herring. It's never been done before. Personally, I don't care, sleeping at the wheel is not in my plans. It's good and getting greater with every update. And it's an amazing adventure. Like being there as the first aircraft or the printing press were developed. If you're strictly the utilitarian type, and all you want is to sleep while it drives, there are reasons why this is not for you.

But I think the naysayers largely fall into 2 classes. The theoreticians and ROI jockeys who don't have it, and so don't know what they're talking about, and the few who got it, but haven't put in the time/effort to get good at using it. You don't have to use all the automation all the time, but as it evolves and you get used to it, you will. If you don't get it, you'll get more P'd off every day, watching the gala train go by.
.

 

[AndreP]

My son put it very well 3 years ago when I was debating what to get on the Model 3. He said "if you're going to buy a Tesla, for Xist's sake, that's what it's all about. Get all the automation it's capable of". If you can afford a full Tesla, and enjoy being part of something new, by all means get it. It's silly to spend the money on a half a Tesla. NOA has gotten so good I can't imagine driving on freeways without it. With FSD Beta, it's becoming a seamless continuum between freeways, unprotected highways, and streets.

Yeah, Level 5 is a Red Herring. It's never been done before. Personally, I don't care, sleeping at the wheel is not in my plans. It's good and getting greater with every update. And it's an amazing adventure. Like being there as the first aircraft or the printing press were developed. If you're strictly the utilitarian type, and all you want is to sleep while it drives, there are reasons why this is not for you.

But I think the naysayers largely fall into 2 classes. The theoreticians and ROI jockeys who don't have it, and so don't know what they're talking about, and the few who got it, but haven't put in the time/effort to get good at using it. You don't have to use all the automation all the time, but as it evolves and you get used to it, you will. If you don't get it, you'll get more P'd off every day, watching the gala train go by.
.

If you want to be a part of the development process that badly and don't mind paying for the privilege, then it seems like a no-brainer. But that's a very specific desire and the end result is supposed to be a production version of the software that anyone can use with ease when they buy a Tesla and pay the $$$ for access.

So there really is no missing the gala train, you can even watch videos from beta testers and read these forums to live vicariously through them while saving the cash until a final release is on the table. And then you can pay for it.

 

[EVNow]

You can buy an EV for that, I just wouldn't pay $10k for something like FSD under the threat that it'll increase in price in the future because the EVs of the future will be built on other big advances in areas that won't be upgraded with the FSD package.

Oh - it sounded like you were talking about EV tech, not AV.

The price will probably increase if Tesla ever gets to Robotaxi level FSD. But you can hedge against that by investing $10k in TSLA.

 

[K5TRX]

I have been thinking about this question more.

If you don't care about the Tesla software, you can get a Corolla Hybrid, Rav4, or Prius Prime for half the price of a Model 3 or Model Y. The Toyotas have Backup Cameras, Radar Cruise Control, Lane Assist, Road Sign Detection, Lane Departure, Steering Assist, Pre-Collision, and Pedestrian Detection. Toyotas are safe, reliable, efficient, hold their value, and can go a quarter million miles.

Driving a Tesla is like going years into the future and it just keeps getting better. Since I got my 2018 Model 3 with AutoPilot, Tesla has updated my HW2.5 to HW3 for free. Tesla also added Navigate on Autopilot, Sentry Mode, Red Light Detection, Auto Lane Change, Lane Departure, Smart Summon, Traffic Light Detection, Stop Sign Detection, Speed Limit Sign Detection, and more.

It's not just the 2022 Model 3's that got the new software, it is my 2018 Model 3.

And those are public features available to anyone with AutoPilot. The FSD Beta is amazing as they add the last piece, City Streets.

Software is what makes a Tesla. If spending twice as much as you need to on a car makes sense, get the software too.

 

[EVNow]

The Toyotas have Backup Cameras, Radar Cruise Control, Lane Assist, Road Sign Detection, Lane Departure, Steering Assist, Pre-Collision, and Pedestrian Detection. Toyotas are safe, reliable, efficient, hold their value, and can go a quarter million miles.

Toyota lane keeping / departure warning is anything but reliable. Tesla is definitely better.

We have a 2 year old Toyota van and my wife asked me to disable those.

 

[2101Guy]

Elon said the $10k would pay for the Robotaxi service that would be available December 2020 and “nyc to la with no human intervention by end of 2019”.

Those are level 5 features.

Is FSD level 5 or even level 3 yet? Will it be anytime soon?

If “no”, then it’s not worth $10k

And if you think it’s going to have level 5 (or 3) soon? See elons previous timeline promises..


Fool me once..

 

[Kimmi]

It could come back though. The last time was for 2 weeks in September 2020. I would buy it in a heartbeat.

Do you get a notification when/if EAP becomes available? I will give Elon $$ if it becomes available again.

 

[golfcart]

The ability to go 0-60 in 3 seconds in a 4 door sedan that is as quiet, smooth, and efficient as any car on the road is why I got a model 3. It’s like having a Corvette and a Camry all rolled into one. I would have still bought the car if it didn’t have autopilot let alone FSD. These questions are always about personal preference and I don’t know the OPs personal preferences. But if Elon offered me $10k today to remove FSD I’d take it in a heart beat.

 

[NJEV-Don]

Do you get a notification when/if EAP becomes available? I will give Elon $$ if it becomes available again.

If you watch the forums you’ll know. Trust me.