To FSD or not..

[TLLMRRJ]

As a software guy, I will take the exact opposite stance of DriveMe, above, in that I think it will progress more slowly than people anticipate. It has an awful long way to go in terms of reliability--my experience (opinion) is that Autosteer still basically sucks. My Tesla phantom brakes at everything, and does not work reliably under less than perfect conditions. I encourage you to think of it this way: Microsoft Word has been out for 37 years, and it still has bugs. The bugs won't kill you, but they're still there.

And then on top of this, you have potential legal, political, and financial problems layered on top of it when you're removing personal responsibility from a human driver.

Even with all of this, as a tech guy I am intrigued by the progress that has been made and don't mind paying for beta features if there is some value to be extracted. I just personally think it's already too expensive for what it offers and that inflection point isn't coming any time soon, and when you combine that with the fact that it's non-transferable (tied to the car, not the driver), it was an easy pass for me also.

Spot on!

I am an electrical engineer and software developer, and that's why I have less faith in what Tesla is doing than others.

BTW, Tesla and SpaceX are not the same company. Tesla does not build rockets, and getting boosters to land themselves and capsules to dock at stations is a million times easier than making a self-driving car.

 

[glide]

It's worth it to me, I mean these guys build rockets. Think of the SWE that goes into SpaceEx Rockets. Tesla is much of a Software Company as they are Manufacture. Tesla Tech Stack reminds me of the Airbus and Boeing Platforms, the automation that goes into these birds are amazing to the point where Pilots can fly and land these planes all by FC/AP systems. So yes, to me 7-8k is worth it. There are risks and but the payoff in this is the point why I wanted a Tesla in the first place.

Tesla does not build rockets. Please don’t kid yourself.

Another thing they don’t make; self driving vehicles.

 

[MilesAhead]

I am to an SWE and I also understand that Tesla and SpaceX are two different companies. However, one cannot argue with the thought leadership, innovation, and talent that Elon has brought together. Further, Elon has delivered on everything so far he has committed too, late sometimes, but he has delivered. One cannot argue with success.

 

[frankvb]

I tend to agree with the people saying that it's impossible to tell if the current hw sensor setup (single front radar, multiple cameras) will be enough to ever allow level 5 autonomous driving. That's even when assuming they can perfect the software. Also SWE (mobile phones and other embedded sw) here.

I do believe that safe freeway self driving is achievable though, much less variation in environment, no intersections or oncoming traffic, pedestrians etc.

What does worry me that in this case bugs can potentially kill you... It can easily be safer than 99.999% of drivers on the road today though.

 

[TechnoMage]

Yes. The standard is to be noticeably better than human drivers. I would say in some situations that is already true. Now it is just getting them all there. I think they can get to where most situations that is true soon. But, as they stated there is a very long tail. I would not be surprised if they could run robo-taxis next year in well defined circumstances, like carpool to an office or such. General point to point is a few years away.

 

[garyhe23]

I have my MY for more than a week now. I had a trip about less than 300 miles a couple days ago, and here are my thoughts:

I was more nervous when I was on FSD than driving it myself, I think it was because of the following issues/cases, I could not trust FSD or even AP:

1. phantom brake - during the trip I had 1-2 phantom brake, I was unprepared and very surprised why the car made the brake design. I think at that time I saw 1-2 cars on the lanes next to me but there was no car in front of me. I would not make the brake if I drove myself;

2. I was on I-5, and I should drive in the left 3 lines, the 2 right lanes became exit to another free way, but the FSD did not change lane and kept my car continue to drive in the second right lane. I had to stop AP/FSD and made a lane change by myself, I pissed off the drivers behind me;

3. One weird situation that the FSD changed to the lane left next to me, which was a left turn lane (the car in front of me changed to that lane first and my MY followed). I don’t know why And I had to cancel AP/FSD to correct.

it is hard for me to give my trust to AP/FSD at this point, I can’t imagine to trust AP/FSD during night time or drive on a mountain highway.

 

[S0XY]

I think this is a personal decision, and there is no right or wrong answer.

I love tech and want to have the latest, even if it's only beta. For me, I didn't think twice about purchasing FSD. I also plan to have this car for at least 10 years and I'm sure there will be huge improvements made in that timeframe.

On the other hand, I couldn't care less about shaving half a second off the 0-60 time, so didn't even consider the performance model. Other people will think just the opposite.

If you're expecting the software to be perfect, or actual self driving any time soon, then FSD is probably not worth it for you. But if you want to play with the latest technology and test out new features, then go for it.

 

[Puma2020]

As a computer engineer, I don't trust FSD yet. Maybe ever. However, I will use it on long drives to help take some of the strain from the drive. It is a lot more difficult than people imagine. Back in the early 80's the "experts" were saying we'd have self driving cars by 2000. It is now 2020 and Tesla is the closest so far. DARPA started the Grand Challenge back in 2004 for self driving. The test was a 150 mile route. Most vehicles failed to make it very far. The one that went the furthest only went 7.3 miles. There are many issues dealing with driving. Obstacles recognition and avoidance, filtering out unneeded information, etc. Turns out that humans at really good at filtering and puzzle solving. Plus, as most former teen age boys will tell you, experience helps a lot. Maybe the new approach with machine learning will work. It'll be interesting. Will I trust it over myself in a blizzard or ice storm. Not yet. However, I am hopeful that in 5 or 10+ years as my reaction time and skills erode that maybe, just maybe it will work. A lot of experts have said that Elon can't possibly succeed. You can't build useful EVs. You can't build reusable rockets. History is littered with nay sayers and those that don't learn from history.
In the late 1800's, the president of Western Union, William Orton, was quoted as saying the telephone “has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication.”
in 1903 “The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty,”
In 1934, Albert Einstein was reported as saying, “There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.”
In 1943, Thomas Watson, president of IBM, was famously quoted as saying, “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
In a 1946 interview, Daryl Zanuck (movie studio exec) said, “Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.”
In 1977, Ken Olsen, founder of the Digital Equipment Corporation, said, “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”
in 1981 Martin Cooper, who worked at Motorola and who made the first handheld mobile call said, “Cellular phones will absolutely not replace local wire systems.”
AND...
Thomas Edison said of Nikola Tesla “Fooling around with alternating current is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever.” While Edison’s DC today powers devices such as our Teslas, it is Tesla’s AC that powers the cities around the world. Maybe we should be driving Edisons!

 

[LevelHeaded]

I don’t ever expect my MY to be capable of true “full self-driving,” but I expect the FSD package to evolve pretty quickly to a point where its features are worth the $7k I spent. IMO, it’s already almost there.

 

[BobbyD1]

Hmm, autopilot to FSD. To me, it's paying $8K to do autopilot lane changes and auto stops and simply not worth it (don't need or care for summon). After driving the MY for a few months on all different roads and conditions, the benefits and limitations of autopilot are clear -- and imho we are years (decades?) away from anything resembling "full self driving" - the words in English taken literally. If Tesla more accurately called it "enhanced autopilot" and charged $1000, I would probably upgrade. Future promises ... they don't do it for me. YMMV.

Edit: wanted to add something here. The autopilot's biggest weakness imho is in not being able to see or anticipate changing conditions down the road. Brake lights coming on, lanes slowing or speeding up, someone driving erratically. After years of driving, you just *know* what's coming next and compensate way earlier than autopilot. The autopilot can only tell what's happening right around you, and the resulting actions are often jerky and unintuitive. I think we're talking an entirely new generation or two or three of sensors and AI to replicate an alert and experienced driver. As a simple driver's aid though, it is pretty cool. My two cents.

 

[BMax_V.2]

I value yall inputs hence I'm holding off on FSD for now and see how it pans out, especially with rumors of monthly subscription so I'm not locked in..

 

[LasVegas2019]

I got it because I like to get every possible option on a car. Probably a waste of money in the near term but that's just how I roll. I waste a lot of money because you can't take it with you and I assume covid19 will mutate into a 100% killer and wipe out 95% of humans. (Mother nature is really ticked off at us for destroying our planet. Revenge is a bummer.) But I digress.. If $7k is significant to you, don't do it. Not that useful yet.

 

[hcdavis3]

I got it because I like to get every possible option on a car. Probably a waste of money in the near term but that's just how I roll. I waste a lot of money because you can't take it with you and I assume covid19 will mutate into a 100% killer and wipe out 95% of humans. (Mother nature is really ticked off at us for destroying our planet. Revenge is a bummer.) But I digress.. If $7k is significant to you, don't do it. Not that useful yet.

Me too. Happy with my purchase.

 

[FredMertz]

It's worth it to me, I mean these guys build rockets. Think of the SWE that goes into SpaceEx Rockets. Tesla is much of a Software Company as they are Manufacture. Tesla Tech Stack reminds me of the Airbus and Boeing Platforms, the automation that goes into these birds are amazing to the point where Pilots can fly and land these planes all by FC/AP systems. So yes, to me 7-8k is worth it. There are risks and but the payoff in this is the point why I wanted a Tesla in the first place.

I think you're right on target here -- I've been on hundreds of flights in my life and not one time did the autopiloted plane hit a pedestrian or other plane.

 

[rxlawdude]

I think you're right on target here -- I've been on hundreds of flights in my life and not one time did the autopiloted plane hit a pedestrian or other plane.

Hey Fred, when you did have a gasoline-powered car, did it require Ethyl?

(Sorry, I just keep flashing back to I Love Lucy every time I see your avatar.)

 

[FredMertz]

Hey Fred, when you did have a gasoline-powered car, did it require Ethyl?

(Sorry, I just keep flashing back to I Love Lucy every time I see your avatar.)

I can't even remember owning an internal combustion ri-CAR-do.

 

[rxlawdude]

I can't even remember owning an internal combustion ri-CAR-do.

Clearly, you don't have a lucy screw.

 

[Rufus1349]

I think this is a personal decision, and there is no right or wrong answer.

I love tech and want to have the latest, even if it's only beta. For me, I didn't think twice about purchasing FSD. I also plan to have this car for at least 10 years and I'm sure there will be huge improvements made in that timeframe.

On the other hand, I couldn't care less about shaving half a second off the 0-60 time, so didn't even consider the performance model. Other people will think just the opposite.

If you're expecting the software to be perfect, or actual self driving any time soon, then FSD is probably not worth it for you. But if you want to play with the latest technology and test out new features, then go for it.

I am the guy that loves software updates and dabbling in the latest technology. I have FSD and for me was worth it. No, it is no there... and you must stay alert. All that being said, I LOVE IT.

 

[Iain]

I know it’s a Y thread but FSD is FSD. A lot of people here are saying they are engineers etc, I’m not but I’m used to auto pilots. I have over 20,000 flight hours so I’m very comfortable monitoring systems. I love it and drive my car with it engaged at least 70% of the time. That said I never ever think I can look away. You still need to be very engaged in what’s happening at all times. Navigate on autopilot, once you are comfortable, is a game changer on long trips. You will be far less fatigued on the trip, making it safe and more enjoyable.

 

[Dennisis]

Yep, love it too! I've always been a tech/gadget geek. I had it on my M3 and now the MY. And it always gets better!