Too soon for electric cars: analyst

[Doug_G]

Too soon for electric cars: analyst

Is the world ready for electric cars? Are electric cars ready for the world? At least one prominent Canadian automotive consultant thinks the answer to both questions is no and he’s pretty passionate about why.

Of course no mention of Tesla...

 

[doug]

Reading that article, this "analyst" doesn't really sound like he knows what he's talking about.

 

[Doug_G]

Yes, it is disturbing how little research some of these "experts" do.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Reading that article, this "analyst" doesn't really sound like he knows what he's talking about.

I read an article about game analysts and a vast majority of them got significantly less than half of their predictions right. You'll have better chances coming with a good prediction by flipping a coin.

 

[vfx]

What surveys and annalists never seem to figure in is the collective change in the feelings about a new technology.
When people actually see that cellphones, electric cars, bluetooth devices working all around them, they are more likely to buy them. It grows exponentially and more and more sightings and purchase spur more and more sighting and purchases. There is probably a mathematical model of this somewhere but "analists" never factor in the human element of acceptance, then desire, and finally pervasive adoption.

 

[TEG]

Well said, VFX!

Diffusion of innovations - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Technology adoption lifecycle - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[TEG]

From
Sufiy.: Electric Cars' adoption rate: Washing Machines or Mobiles with iPods Squared? TNR.v, CZX.v, RM.v, LMR.v, WLC.v, CLQ.v, SQM, FMC, ROC, F, BYDDY, NSANY,
Nicholas Felton | Feltron.com

 

[vfx]

Great stuff TEG.

This quote of rates of adoption:

...
These strategies are: have an innovation adopted by a highly respected individual within a social network, creating an instinctive desire for a specific innovation. Inject an innovation into a group of individuals who would readily use an innovation, and provide positive reactions and benefits for early adopters of an innovation.

Makes me think about the Prius. At first it was a normal looking car. Not sure if they listened to experts like Seth Godin who flat out told them to make it unique looking so drivers could shout their green-ness or if Toyota did studies or focus groups to decide on changing the boxy appearance to it's current egg shape. Anyway, they also mounted a not so well known campaign to get Hollywood celebes to drive Priuses. Every assumes that happened on it's own but it was a paid for project that seeded the film and television industry with those cars. Two million cars later and I think it all worked out for them. Too bad they are resisting the next step to all electric.

 

[TEG]

Twitter

#EV sales expected to grow 46x to 5.2M by 2017 (via @PikeResearch) http://ow.ly/6dP3l
http://twitter.com/#!/search?q=#SayYestoEVs

 

[dhrivnak]

What surveys and annalists never seem to figure in is the collective change in the feelings about a new technology.
When people actually see that cellphones, electric cars, bluetooth devices working all around them, they are more likely to buy them. It grows exponentially and more and more sightings and purchase spur more and more sighting and purchases. There is probably a mathematical model of this somewhere but "analists" never factor in the human element of acceptance, then desire, and finally pervasive adoption.

There is actually a good book out on the subject called The Tipping Point. Basically it says a new technology starts slow and when a core group adopts it so it is "cool" then there is an fast exponential rise in use. We see this a lot with fashion but we have seen it over and over in technology. Like when the BlackBerry became the "CrackBerry" and the legend was born.