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Discussion in 'Electric Vehicles' started by Doug_G, May 21, 2011.
Too soon for electric cars: analyst
Of course no mention of Tesla...
Reading that article, this "analyst" doesn't really sound like he knows what he's talking about.
Yes, it is disturbing how little research some of these "experts" do.
I read an article about game analysts and a vast majority of them got significantly less than half of their predictions right. You'll have better chances coming with a good prediction by flipping a coin.
What surveys and annalists never seem to figure in is the collective change in the feelings about a new technology.
When people actually see that cellphones, electric cars, bluetooth devices working all around them, they are more likely to buy them. It grows exponentially and more and more sightings and purchase spur more and more sighting and purchases. There is probably a mathematical model of this somewhere but "analists" never factor in the human element of acceptance, then desire, and finally pervasive adoption.
Well said, VFX!
Diffusion of innovations - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Technology adoption lifecycle - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Sufiy.: Electric Cars' adoption rate: Washing Machines or Mobiles with iPods Squared? TNR.v, CZX.v, RM.v, LMR.v, WLC.v, CLQ.v, SQM, FMC, ROC, F, BYDDY, NSANY,
Nicholas Felton | Feltron.com
Great stuff TEG.
This quote of rates of adoption:
Makes me think about the Prius. At first it was a normal looking car. Not sure if they listened to experts like Seth Godin who flat out told them to make it unique looking so drivers could shout their green-ness or if Toyota did studies or focus groups to decide on changing the boxy appearance to it's current egg shape. Anyway, they also mounted a not so well known campaign to get Hollywood celebes to drive Priuses. Every assumes that happened on it's own but it was a paid for project that seeded the film and television industry with those cars. Two million cars later and I think it all worked out for them. Too bad they are resisting the next step to all electric.
There is actually a good book out on the subject called The Tipping Point. Basically it says a new technology starts slow and when a core group adopts it so it is "cool" then there is an fast exponential rise in use. We see this a lot with fashion but we have seen it over and over in technology. Like when the BlackBerry became the "CrackBerry" and the legend was born.