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Total Cost of Ownership (UK prices)

Discussion in 'Model S' started by Nik, Jan 21, 2011.

  1. Nik

    Nik Dreaming no more :-(

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    #1 Nik, Jan 21, 2011
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2011
    I've been looking at the total cost of ownership for a number of options for replacing my aging motor. I am interested in cost, low emissions and appearance, in roughly equal measure.

    I currently have a Peugeot 406 Coupe, converted to run on LPG. I've done 90,000 largely trouble-free miles in this in 3 1/2 years, but it is getting old.

    The options I considered were:
    1) Like-for-like replacement, a 4-5 year-old petrol car, converted to LPG
    2) A small high-MPG diesel, such as a VW Polo Bluemotion. This would mean making the second car the one we use for family trips, but would do for my 60-mile per day commute.
    3) A family-size high-MPG diesel, such as the Saab 9-3 TTID.
    4) A Tesla S

    Below is a comparison of the costs per mile over a ten-year period, and the assumptions I've used to create them. I'd be interested in any comment, particularly around the running costs of an EV.

    • 5-year life for old LPG vehicle, 10 for new vehicles. Negligible residual values.
    • £20k purchase price for eg new Saab TTiD
    • £15k for a new Polo Bluemotion
    • £6k to purchase a used car and convert to LPG
    • $60,000 for a Tesla, at £1=$1.6, plus 10% import duty and 20% VAT
    • LPG is £0.78 per litre, rising 5% ahead of inflation
    • Diesel is £1.40 per litre, rising 5% ahead of inflation
    • LPG car gets 36MPG, large Diesel 62.5, small Diesel 68mpg
    • Tesla S uses 250Wh per mile, at £0.092/KwH (my current price) and is 85% efficient wall-to-wheel
    • No Road Tax for EV or small TDi, LPG and large TDi increase 5% ahead of inflation
    • All vehicles require a £250 service every 10,000 miles
    • Used vehicle gives 2 years before needing repairs, new ones 4 years.
    • EV repairs are cheaper, due to no ICE parts to break ,and do not rise as car gets older
    • All prices are at 2010 values - no inflation or cost of capital used except where described above.
    The black line, against the right-hand axis, shows the additional cost in GBP/day of running the Tesla S against the Saab. For scale, a pint of beer is £3 or a packet of Marlboro is nearly £7.
    attachment.php?attachmentid=1339&d=1295640002.png


    If I allow an additional $10k for a larger battery (other optional extras excluded from all comparisons), the excess cost rises to £1.36/day at 25k miles pa, or £4/day at 17k miles.

    So, do I hand over my deposit now or wait until nearer the delivery time? The Peugeot can't last forever (162,000 miles on a car designed and built in Italy!) but when will European deliveries of the S begin?

    CarCosts2.png
     
  2. drbradfo

    drbradfo Member

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    Nik, have you considered the CO2 emissions? I ran some numbers for the Tesla (assuming worse electrical source, Subbituminous Coal) vs my Prius vs standard america car. Here in the USA, there is allot of information available from the EPA and DOE. Do you have access to power production, emissions, etc in the UK?

    -Dennis
     
  3. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    So, if I'm understanding the graph, the Model S only is cost effective after 10 years if you drive 23000+ miles a year? That, unfortunately, puts buying the Model S in a bad light from a personal financial perspective. Even worse compared to the small TDI or LPG cars.
     
  4. dpeilow

    dpeilow Moderator

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    Comparing it with a Polo is a bit disingenuous. Even your Saab 9-3 is too small to be apples with apples. Please repeat with the BMW 535d.
     
  5. Cobos

    Cobos S60 owner since 2013

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    I agree that size wise they are not in the same league, but as he said he wants to solve his specific transport needs. The Polo was intended as the high milage car and the commuter car and then keeping an older family car for longer trips. It's all a matter of value.

    My next car will be an EV with 4 doors and room for 4. I would like for it to have similar or better performance as my 114bhp Civic and have all the fancy luxuries as AC and electric windows. I want 6+ airbags, ESP and modern safety cage. The range need to be good enough to get me to our cabin. The Model S will easily give me that as well as extra luxury and extra sportyness. Though the Leaf might as well at probably around 50-60% of the price. The range for a cabin trip might be the problem with the Leaf.
    So for me as the original poster the question is would the extra "bits" that the Model S offer be worth the extra expense compared to for him the Polo or for me the Leaf (or Ford Focus EV or some other similar vehicle). Recently I'm starting to doubt that as it seems the Model S will be too far past my car budget. Not to mention they are again either ignoring my emails or spending a week answering them which doesn't bode very well for their customer service. :(

    Cobos
     
  6. Eberhard

    Eberhard #421 Model S #S32

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    What about maintenance cost? For an ICE it is hefty, it sometimes cost more then the gas you consume. You need brakes pads and disc replaces and sometimes the muffler too. The lost of value of normal car is much more higher then a car build in aluminium.
     
  7. Nik

    Nik Dreaming no more :-(

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    All my electricity is renewable, so CO2 free. A Polo would be under 100g/km, and a larger TDi around 130g/km. I've not looked the national power mix for overall CO2.

    @Ckessel: The other way of looking at it is that at 15,000 miles a year it's only £2.50 per day extra. The cost of financing the initial purchase is more significant.

    @dpeilow: i think the estate 9-3 is a decent size, and I wouldn't drive the BMW if they gave it to me ;-) That said, you can easily sub in the figures into the assumptions I gave. If you'd like a copy of the spreadsheet then I'll happily post it up or e-mail it to you. [Quick check: ignoring road tax the extra £20k purchase price is 8p/mile at 25,000 miles PA. Makes the Saab look really good value!]

    @Eberhard: I've allowed for some ICE-related maintenance costs. I'd be really interested in anyones experiences of maintaining a Roadster over long-ish distances. I don't know how many parts EVs have that wear - does the regen braking mean less brake wear, for example?
     
  8. dpeilow

    dpeilow Moderator

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    Averages 520 g/kWh inc transmission losses. I've got a link to a government document on how this is predicted to fall which I will post when back on my PC.
     
  9. SByer

    SByer '08 #383

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    Much less brake wear (like 1/10th, if that). Tires wear the same on the Roadster as my other cars (MR2, 911) at a pair of rears/yr, fronts/2yrs. Other maintenance so far has been just about zero. No oil changes (that was quite expensive/yr for the 911), etc.

    Also, I think the gas inflation rate you use is conservative, with China going as car crazy as it is. Gas in the US will be $4/gal this summer, easy, and should be at least $5/gal next summer - we're past peak oil and hit a knee in the curve of China's growth where enough of their population is just coming into the amount of income needed to purchase a car.

    But the Roadster is never going to makeup the difference with a.. what... $25k car? (I haven't paid attention to the ICE car world since late '06 when I put my deposit in, so I've actually gotten really disconnected - I used to be such a petrol-head). Against a 911, easy (way, way easy - the Roadster is just a much better car all around except for range). Against a BMW 7 series, if you didn't need the space, easy.
     
  10. Nik

    Nik Dreaming no more :-(

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    One of the effects of having so much duty on our petrol is that a given % increase in crude oil prices has a much lower impact on petrol prices at the pump than is the case in the US. There is also talk of a 'fuel price stabiliser' that will lower duty when oil prices rise, but I don't hold out much hope for that.

    I tried to be fairly conservative in looking at these rises, because the compound effect ofver 10 years is so high. \\\\i was worried about producing an argument that was easly to knock down, and also about convincing myself to buy something that later turned out to be based on an over-optimistic forecast.

    If I get some time I'll re-run the numbers showing a best-case from an EV point of view - ie comparison with a BMW and RPI+7% petrol price inflation

    Nik
     
  11. JimmWilks

    JimmWilks Member

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    This kind of thing would be very interesting if Tesla's future affordable car was included, I wonder how it would compare?
     
  12. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    Sometimes I think Tesla should have done the Bluestar first before the Model S. That way the could show both ends of the spectrum. Later cars could "fill in the middle"
     
  13. JimmWilks

    JimmWilks Member

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    From the perspective of what is required by EVs by the public, that makes the most sense. But in terms of Tesla's ability to produce such a vehicle, with the necessary characteristics, for a reasonable cost in a large volume, the production of a premium sedan first is the way to go. They can build from the extra revenue and improvement in perception of EVs derived from the Model S in order to make sure they can survive the trials of producing a low-cost vehicle "for the masses".
     
  14. Nik

    Nik Dreaming no more :-(

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    I've had records of fuel consumption since I got my Peugeot in May 2007. Over this time, 95-RON unleaded has increased from £0.98/litre to £1.30. This is 7.8% per annum. RPIX (inflation excluding house prices) increased by 3.6% per annum for 2007-2010, so RPIX+7% seems a little unlikely to be sustained over 10 years.
     
  15. clivesinclair

    clivesinclair New Member

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    For those who don't know, I am PRO Electric car - just not ones powered (in the long term) by batteries. May I point out that supporters of both electric and internal combustion powered cars CAN and DO 'tweak' figures to support their corner i.e. Cheap off peak electricity, lower maintenance, lower purchase price, better range, batteries will get better..... are a few from both sides (guess which is which).

    There is lot's of information for and against both types of vehicle available. What I have done is look at both sides, carried out real world research, costs and ease or purchase. I don't accept the argument (neither should any consumer) about 'it's new technology' and 'things will improve'. Why? Because we are being told 2011 is the year of the electric car and with rising fossil fuel prices it makes sense to buy one now. Companies involved in the sale or promotion of electric vehicles have had plenty of time to get the infrastructure and information in place. As have insurance companies, or local authorities. I know the technology will improve........!

    My background is electric/electronic engineering and I do have experience of operating high power modern rechargeable batteries on a daily basis (not mobile phones or laptops).

    I am currently trying to buy either a Nissan Leaf or a Vauxhall Ampera. Two different vehicles I know, but from the list of 'issues' below, you'll understand why the choice is not so simple. I have spent several weeks, many phone calls, emails, etc to various authorities, car dealers, insurance companies. I've visited sites with charging points to see how easy they are to ACCESS and what they cost to use (i.e £1 per hour parking), but that is another story. These are my own personal experience, where I live - 12 miles from one of the largest cities in the UK .

    You need to me able to charge you electric car at home. I live in a flat and own a garage about 100m away (currently no electric supply to the garage). Running a cable out from my home to the car is not an option. I approached my local council planning department and asked if I could install a charging post (at my cost) in one of the parking spaces. The email answer included "In particular, my colleagues in the Roads Section may have concerns regarding the loss of a designated parking space to a charging bay solely for electric vehicles". Not very green then for my council then? I am still waiting for a definitive answer, 3 weeks later.

    My next approach was to consider a charging point in my garage. I contacted my electricity supplier and after a week of phone calls and emails, I was finally given a estimated price of £3,000 - for ground laying a supply cable to my garage. Please note this amount is NOT included in the costs below.

    My next bit of research involved a visit to my local Nissan dealer. Prior to this I checked out their website and found very little technical information on the Leaf. Basic information as boot capacity, towing weights, etc - information that is always included in non electric cars. Their UK website also said I needed a 220volt 16amp domestic outlet to charge the Leaf. Isn't the UK domestic socket rated at 240volt 13amp?

    The salesman said the charging information must be wrong on the website. Not good for a new vehicle launch using new technology and very confusing for customers. If you live in a property with a garage attached, then yes you CAN charge your Nissan Leaf from a domestic 13amp socket. Other charging options exist (such as fast charging), for some of these options Nissan say... 'may require a home wiring inspection with our Electric Mobility Operator'. Link - http://www.nissan.co.uk/GB/en/inside-nissan/innovation-and-technology/autonomy.html.

    Towing weights? You simply can't tow with a Nissan Leaf, or currently any other pure electric car (some hybrids you can). As a electronics engineer, I would guess this has to do with motor/battery loads not having sufficient torque/power. Electric car supporters who claim 'most people' could replace their petrol/diesel car with an electric car seem to be forgetting the 1 million caravaners (not me) in the UK (Caravan Club figures), or any other person that needs to tow a trailer. Boot capacity? - No figures, just a quick look in it.

    On to how I calculated the figures. I like many others do not have £10,000 plus to buy a new car every few years - without using some kind of finance. Most either get a loan, hire purchase, or like me, a personal lease plan. I have done this for 11 years and replace my car every 3 years. My current monthly cost, for everything excluding fuel and insurance is £214 per month. This equates to £7704 for the car/maintenance over 3 years. Depreciation is not an issue - as I take it back and get a new one and just continue the payments. I am still waiting for the Nissan salesman to get back to me with 3 year inclusive lease costs - but he did say it would be "considerably more than £214 per month". Looking at the price of the Leaf, that would make sense. So, until I can get a lease price for 3 yrs, my comparison has assumed a cash payment for the vehicles, with a inclusive 3 year maintenance deal (not uncommon).

    I'd like to include some recent information I found. But I would add that depreciation of recent electric vehicles (Such as the Nissan Leaf) is not yet known, or proven. However, Mitsubishi has acknowledged that the i-MiEV's depreciation over three years could turn out to be more than £15,000. That is more than the purchase price of my car (£14,000).

    I don't pay road tax as my car has a Band A rating. Tyres and maintenance are included in the 3 years deal and the car has a 3 year warranty. A new car every 3 years also rules out any M.O.T costs. Insurance is £28 per month for 2 named drivers. The Nissan Leaf insurance quote? My own insurance company will not give me a quote without a registration number (Direct Line - no idea why?). Online quotes it was. Tried three of the best advertised/known comparison sites and all goes well until you get to the engine size and fuel type..... choice? Petrol or Diesel. Not me being negative, I am sure I could get insurance, just another real world hurdle that does not exist for a regular fuelled cars and more importantly, may put some people off. Why have these companies not prepared for this?

    Electricity and petrol/diesel prices are both rising fast - I recently had a letter, advising of a 9% increase in my electricity price. Nissans website figure quotes a 2.5p per mile figure for the Leaf - so I am going with that one. You'll even notice I have put the pence per litre for petrol as 200 - far above it's current price.

    Ignore the plug-In column, research in progress.

    Screen shot 2011-01-24 at 09.33.24.png

    Supporters of Electric cars will give two reasons they are better than conventional powered cars. Running costs and emissions. I am not discussing emissions here, such as 'well to wheel' CO2, or tailpipe emissions - that has been done before and is still open for debate, I'm comparing the COST of buying, owning and running one.

    I have a wind turbine and solar panels at home. We also don't fly - to reduce our carbon footprint. Now as much as I want a cleaner, greener world by stopping fossil fuel use and reducing CO2, my first concern is for me and my family to have sufficient money to live on - especially in the current financial climate.

    AT THE MOMENT, for me, and many more, electric cars are considerably more expensive to buy and run.

    A final trivial piece of information..... The latest Boeing 787 Dreamliner uses 8 million lines of computer code for all it's systems i.e. engines, control surfaces, air conditioning, etc. A Vauxhall Ampera/GM Volt has 10 million lines - I'll be optimistic and say "computers rarely crash".
     
  16. clivesinclair

    clivesinclair New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    3
    My calculations

    For those who don't know, I am PRO Electric car - just not ones powered (in the long term) by batteries. May I point out that supporters of both electric and internal combustion powered cars CAN and DO 'tweak' figures to support their corner i.e. Cheap off peak electricity, lower maintenance, lower purchase price, better range, batteries will get better..... are a few from both sides (guess which is which).

    There is lot's of information for and against both types of vehicle available. What I have done is look at both sides, carried out real world research, costs and ease or purchase. I don't accept the argument (neither should any consumer) about 'it's new technology' and 'things will improve'. Why? Because we are being told 2011 is the year of the electric car and with rising fossil fuel prices it makes sense to buy one now. Companies involved in the sale or promotion of electric vehicles have had plenty of time to get the infrastructure and information in place. As have insurance companies, or local authorities. I know the technology will improve........!

    My background is electric/electronic engineering and I do have experience of operating high power modern rechargeable batteries on a daily basis (not mobile phones or laptops).

    I am currently trying to buy either a Nissan Leaf or a Vauxhall Ampera. Two different vehicles I know, but from the list of 'issues' below, you'll understand why the choice is not so simple. I have spent several weeks, many phone calls, emails, etc to various authorities, car dealers, insurance companies. I've visited sites with charging points to see how easy they are to ACCESS and what they cost to use (i.e £1 per hour parking), but that is another story. These are my own personal experience, where I live - 12 miles from one of the largest cities in the UK .

    You need to me able to charge you electric car at home. I live in a flat and own a garage about 100m away (currently no electric supply to the garage). Running a cable out from my home to the car is not an option. I approached my local council planning department and asked if I could install a charging post (at my cost) in one of the parking spaces. The email answer included "In particular, my colleagues in the Roads Section may have concerns regarding the loss of a designated parking space to a charging bay solely for electric vehicles". Not very green then for my council then? I am still waiting for a definitive answer, 3 weeks later.

    My next approach was to consider a charging point in my garage. I contacted my electricity supplier and after a week of phone calls and emails, I was finally given a estimated price of £3,000 - for ground laying a supply cable to my garage. Please note this amount is NOT included in the costs below.

    My next bit of research involved a visit to my local Nissan dealer. Prior to this I checked out their website and found very little technical information on the Leaf. Basic information as boot capacity, towing weights, etc - information that is always included in non electric cars. Their UK website also said I needed a 220volt 16amp domestic outlet to charge the Leaf. Isn't the UK domestic socket rated at 240volt 13amp?


    The salesman said the charging information must be wrong on the website. Not good for a new vehicle launch using new technology and very confusing for customers. If you live in a property with a garage attached, then yes you CAN charge your Nissan Leaf from a domestic 13amp socket. Other charging options exist (such as fast charging), for some of these options Nissan say... 'may require a home wiring inspection with our Electric Mobility Operator'. Link - http://www.nissan.co.uk/GB/en/inside-nissan/innovation-and-technology/autonomy.html.

    Towing weights? You simply can't tow with a Nissan Leaf, or currently any other pure electric car (some hybrids you can). As a electronics engineer, I would guess this has to do with motor/battery loads not having sufficient torque/power. Electric car supporters who claim 'most people' could replace their petrol/diesel car with an electric car seem to be forgetting the 1 million caravaners (not me) in the UK (Caravan Club figures), or any other person that needs to tow a trailer. Boot capacity? - No figures, just a quick look in it.

    On to how I calculated the figures. I like many others do not have £10,000 plus to buy a new car every few years - without using some kind of finance. Most either get a loan, hire purchase, or like me, a personal lease plan. I have done this for 11 years and replace my car every 3 years. My current monthly cost, for everything excluding fuel and insurance is £214 per month. This equates to £7704 for the car/maintenance over 3 years. Depreciation is not an issue - as I take it back and get a new one and just continue the payments. I am still waiting for the Nissan salesman to get back to me with 3 year inclusive lease costs - but he did say it would be "considerably more than £214 per month". Looking at the price of the Leaf, that would make sense. So, until I can get a lease price for 3 yrs, my comparison has assumed a cash payment for the vehicles, with a inclusive 3 year maintenance deal (not uncommon).

    I'd like to include some recent information I found. But I would add that depreciation of recent electric vehicles (Such as the Nissan Leaf) is not yet known, or proven. However, Mitsubishi has acknowledged that the i-MiEV's depreciation over three years could turn out to be more than £15,000. That is more than the purchase price of my car (£14,000).

    I don't pay road tax as my car has a Band A rating. Tyres and maintenance are included in the 3 years deal and the car has a 3 year warranty. A new car every 3 years also rules out any M.O.T costs. Insurance is £28 per month for 2 named drivers. The Nissan Leaf insurance quote? My own insurance company will not give me a quote without a registration number (Direct Line - no idea why?). Online quotes it was. Tried three of the best advertised/known comparison sites and all goes well until you get to the engine size and fuel type..... choice? Petrol or Diesel. Not me being negative, I am sure I could get insurance, just another real world hurdle that does not exist for a regular fuelled cars and more importantly, may put some people off. Why have these companies not prepared for this?

    Electricity and petrol/diesel prices are both rising fast - I recently had a letter, advising of a 9% increase in my electricity price. Nissans website figure quotes a 2.5p per mile figure for the Leaf - so I am going with that one. You'll even notice I have put the pence per litre for petrol as 200 - far above it's current price.

    Ignore the plug-In column, research in progress.

    Screen shot 2011-01-24 at 09.33.24.png

    Supporters of Electric cars will give two reasons they are better than conventional powered cars. Running costs and emissions. I am not discussing emissions here, such as 'well to wheel' CO2, or tailpipe emissions - that has been done before and is still open for debate, I'm comparing the COST of buying, owning and running one.

    I have a wind turbine and solar panels at home. We also don't fly - to reduce our carbon footprint. Now as much as I want a cleaner, greener world by stopping fossil fuel use and reducing CO2, my first concern is for me and my family to have sufficient money to live on - especially in the current financial climate.

    AT THE MOMENT, for me, and many more, electric cars are considerably more expensive to buy and run.

    A final trivial piece of information..... The latest Boeing 787 Dreamliner uses 8 million lines of computer code for all it's systems i.e. engines, control surfaces, air conditioning, etc. A Vauxhall Ampera/GM Volt has 10 million lines - I'll be optimistic and say "computers rarely crash".
     
  17. Nik

    Nik Dreaming no more :-(

    Joined:
    Jan 18, 2011
    Messages:
    244
    Location:
    Cambridge, UK
    One of the big drivers for Model S affordability os the ever-increasing cost of fuel.

    In the model used for the OP, I'd started year 1 costs with fuel at 2011 prices, but failed to take account of the fact that the Model S isn't going to be in the UK until at least 2013.

    I've re-run the models with 2013 projected costs for year 1, and added in an estimate of the BMW 530D Touring (£34k purchase, 50 (imp) MPG). I've removed the small TDi car and added a line to show the excess cost of the 'S' against the cheapest option.
    CarCosts2.png
     
  18. hileyms

    hileyms Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2013
    Messages:
    163
    Location:
    UK
    Just to let people know, I have an email from EU Sales yesterday that said that UK spec and prices should be available some time this next week (sometime from Monday 11th November onwards).
     
  19. Alexjfrost1969

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2014
    Messages:
    6
    Location:
    Cambridge, UK
    I'm self employed and the UK government currently (until 2015) offers 100% first year capital allowance on EVs. About 50% of my mileage is business mileage which means that for a £60K car the governments lets me off about £13 of tax. This makesa HUGE difference to the numbers. I live 25 miles from the office and drive about 15K a year. My current ICE is a Lotus (yes it really does stand for Lots Of Trouble Usually Serious :rolleyes:) and I spend around £450 a month on 98 RON unleaded, and around £35 a month on road fund licence.

    Basically the 100% CA allows me to buy a Tesla on PCP (like a cross between Hire Purchase and Leasing, for our North American friends), and pay about the same in finance in year 1 as my tax rebate, with no fuel costs. Obviously years 2 and 3 are more costly but still the saving of about £450 a month in fuel helps me to justify dropping more than twice that on finance each month....

    The Warranty on the Lotus is up in May and I don't want to be paying to keep it on the road after that (the last service had a 4 page rap sheet for the car of niggles and faults, and all that I had to pay for was some new oil and a set of rear tyres....) I tried out an Audi S3 as the kids are growing up and the rear seats in the Evora are a joke....for sure the S3 is a nice car but it does not have that shove you in your seat acceleration of the Lotus, and I just couldn't get excited.

    Then I went and test drove the Tesla. Problem solved!

    Oh, and I don't have to spend 20 minutes getting my road bike in and out of a Tesla, unlike the Lotus (to be fair I don't think the latter were designed to take bikes :biggrin:)

    Cheers

    Alex
     

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