Total Fleet Miles Driven?

[Rockster]

Up through 2018 there were occasional comments made by Elon or someone at Tesla about total fleet miles driven. Enough of those data points were reported on that I started making a graph of total fleet miles vs time and it was looking like a very nice exponential curve (R^2 = 0.9847). I've been watching, though, and haven't seen any totals reported on since 2018. According to my little graph, we should be around 38 billion total fleet miles by now.

Has anyone heard any total fleet miles driven values reported since 2018?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Up through 2018 there were occasional comments made by Elon or someone at Tesla about total fleet miles driven. Enough of those data points were reported on that I started making a graph of total fleet miles vs time and it was looking like a very nice exponential curve (R^2 = 0.9847). I've been watching, though, and haven't seen any totals reported on since 2018. According to my little graph, we should be around 38 billion total fleet miles by now.

Has anyone heard any total fleet miles driven values reported since 2018?

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I don't know but that seems like a bad model.
You should fit it to the integral of the cumulative sum of Teslas sold times a constant.

 

[Rockster]

I don't know but that seems like a bad model.
You should fit it to the integral of the cumulative sum of Teslas sold times a constant.

Good idea. You can do that and we’ll see how the models compare.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Good idea. You can do that and we’ll see how the models compare.

I'll just wait until they release the data.
Also need to add COVID to the model.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Elon released the supercharger utilization charts sometime earlier this year (May/June) that would help to visualize Covid impact.

 

[Mardak]

You should fit it to the integral of the cumulative sum of Teslas sold times a constant.

Sounds similar to what's done at Tesla Vehicle Deliveries and Autopilot Mileage Statistics - Lex Fridman

Currently it shows:

• Estimated Autopilot miles to-date: 3.3 billion miles
• Estimated miles in all Tesla vehicles: 22.5 billion miles

 

[Daniel in SD]

Sounds similar to what's done at Tesla Vehicle Deliveries and Autopilot Mileage Statistics - Lex Fridman

Currently it shows:

• Estimated Autopilot miles to-date: 3.3 billion miles
• Estimated miles in all Tesla vehicles: 22.5 billion miles

Yep. Looks like a very good analysis. He even notes that he's not accounting for the pandemic.