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Norbert
TSLA will win
Sure, you can, if you think in terms of just a small number of years. Japan (and parts of Europe) have already proven that to a fair extent with their CHAdeMo network, especially they have proven there doesn't need to be a "chicken and egg" problem at all. And they keep improving it. The Model S will prove it even more, this year, and in 5 years all that will look *very* different.
Just like the article removes trust in battery prices coming down, it also removes trust in long-trip ability. And that's wrong. The necessary technology already exists, improves every year, and can easily be implemented with an amount of resources significantly smaller than that spent on oil-related stuff every year, both in relative and absolute terms.
Lots of people have been preaching this for many years. But the main stream wants a complete solution. Electric cars are that solution.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Hi Chelsea,
I enjoyed reading your article and I agree, that we enthusiasts shouldn't try to make unreasonable arguments that EVs are going to work for everyone's needs.
However, I was wondering whether you agree that with the advent of the Model S its becoming easier to make the case that reasonably long trips are becoming feasible even in the absence of charger infrastructure.
To elaborate, yesterday I started a thread asking folks in Florida after they received their Model S where would they go for a vacation destination. I mentioned that I wouldn't be planning on going to Key West anytime soon because the Keys didn't seem to have any chargers. A forum member who lives near me in Sarasota responded and said he and his wife plan to go because they would drive, stay at a hotel in the Miami area, chargeup and proceed to Key West where they would stay at a hotel and simply plug in to an available electric outlet.
So I did some calculating. If we assume the Model S has a speed to range curve similar to the Roadster, then I figure that at highway speeds ~60- 75 mph it would take between ~3-4 hours of driving before it would need a charge. Now, I find ideally 3 to 4 hours of driving is about as much as I care to do in a day. So with my driving preferences I'd be stopping at a hotel anyway where I should be able to get a charge from an electric outlet regardless whether the hotel has a charger. Its true I'll probably have to do more planning and coordinating than with an ICE, but I'm beginning to think that "long" trips may not be as problematic as I had originally thought.
Larry
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Norbert
TSLA will win
I'm interested in the answer as well.
In the meantime, let me ask this question;
Will electric cars have a future ...
even if the gas price remains below $4.00 as it is today,
even if the battery prices remain as high as they are today,
even if battery technology doesn't progress otherwise either,
even if the fast charger infrastructure remains as absent as today,
even if CO2 remains an as little recognized danger as today,
even if people keep tolerating smog as much as today,
and even if everything else remains the same as today?
Don't know, but that's not gonna happen.
The answer to that for Europe, if cold hard logic is all that is applied, should most definitely be yes. Yet they're not flying off the lots, so what else is going on?
Norbert
TSLA will win
You are saying the gas price in Europe should already be high enough, and/or the number of people who already care about CO2 (and smog) ?
EDIT: I guess this would also raise the question of what the Leaf and Zoe, Volt and Ampera prices would be if they were sold above cost with a sufficient margin.
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Well I just filled up with $4.199 gas this afternoon. So I doubt it wil stay 'under' $4.
I have always thought it weird that people quote regular unleaded prices, when any comparable car requires premium. And where I live it is pretty much a $0.40 a gallon premium (sometimes $0.30)
I think it depends on the definition of "reasonably long"...
The Model S will likely have a real-world range of ~120-240 miles. That probably won't be enough to get the naysayers to ditch the "can't do road trips" meme, even though the higher end isn't far under what I get in my Saturn. The perception vs reality issue is one we'll fight for a while- both in terms of what people think the cars can do, as well as what people think they do.
Generally, I expect the combination of Model S range and fast charging to enable trips in the few hundred mile range in the near-term. People will likely be reasonably comfortable with the idea of driving the length of their range and charging at their destination for the return trip. They may become comfortable with the assumption of fast-charging in the middle somewhere, but not only does that infrastructure need to be built first, people will need to become confident that it will reliably be working and available when they need it. But for the most part, I expect "road trips" to be things like LA to San Diego, maybe Vegas or SFO. Bay area to Lake Tahoe, etc. And certainly South FL to the Keys.
A few will take longer trips for the novelty of it, just as they have in the EV1, Roadster, etc. But I don't think most will ever want to take truly long road trips on a regular basis in their EVs- mostly because people don't do it that frequently in their gas cars now. Beyond that few hundred mile distance, more people are going to get on a plane or train, or at least be hesitant enough to put the miles on their EV that they rent something else (or take another car that they own). It ends up being more a question of demographics, human behavior and personal choice than the technical capability of the EV- which is part of why I think we place too much emphasis on being able to do EV road trips in the first place. Road trips hold an aspirational place in our vehicle culture, and some of us do really like them- but most don't actually take them as often as they think they might. It's a little like "needing" the SUV but never actually going off-roading or otherwise using its full capability.
Norbert
TSLA will win
Still, considering that most current electric cars, and PHEVs with more than 30 mile range, are sold below cost, I'd be hesitant to believe that current prices would sustain anything above 1% of the total market, if they were sold for a price at which they'd be worth the trouble for the auto manufacturers.
Given that any Tesla will charge at any RV park, I'd say the infrastructure is already in place--at least for vacations. Sure it will take a little longer than if there were superchargers anywhere, but it's not a bad thing to drive a few hours, rest a bit, and then drive a few hours more. That should get you a minimum of 400 miles to 600 miles in a day. Maybe more if you drive effectively.
Norbert
TSLA will win
The thing is that road trips come for free with a gas car (except for the gasoline). And it's usually a satisfying experience, even if not frequent, something people don't want to give up for nothing. Few believe enough in the idealistic values that an EV gives you. Why counteract that if it is possible to provide it? That might annoy people even more, than just to have to give up something they got for free.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Most of the people I talk to shut off once I tell them the price of Model S/X. We need to climb down from the ivory tower and realize only a small fraction of the population can afford a $60k car. To most people a $60k car is less practicle than a 100 mile range EV.
Absolutely. I've read stuff saying that EVs will truly interest the public in the US (without subsidies) when gas reaches $7. Well here we're already at $8.50 and have the subsidies...
I know the answer to one of those but won't betray confidence. However it's not as high as many seem to think it is.
Absolutely true, but there was a time prior to the Tesla Roadster when electric cars were no more than golf carts. The Roadster changed that perception even though most folks couldn't afford it. The Model S will demonstrate that an electric vehicle can be a practical family car even though most folks can't afford it. It is merely a step in the right direction, it certainly is not the "solution".
Larry
Norbert
TSLA will win
That's difficult to say from here, then ... I had the impression Europe's percentage of Roadster sales wasn't bad.
So what kind of market share would you expect at those not-so-high-but-higher prices? I think if all those variables, mentioned above, stayed constant, auto makers would not have enough interest (not talking about Tesla here) as that more than a 1% market share would be achieved. To get more, I think the dynamics of those things improving is necessary (but guaranteed, more or less).
Norbert
TSLA will win
Norbert
TSLA will win
To clarify, that seems a very different topic.
My point is that the article discussed EV future only under the current conditions (under which even an "optimist" like myself wouldn't know if there would be a big future) and criticizes away all the factors that will cause EV market share to increase, by giving the impression that they cannot be relied upon.
But we have good reason to rely on that *most* of those factors will change in favor of EVs. Especially batteries and infrastructure for Tesla's EVs. (I don't give gas prices a special importance.)
Which (at least in my mind) speaks against seeing this NYT article as a fair evaluation of what is happening on an almost daily basis. It may be a "tough" article, but that is because it removes (for lack of a better word) all the beneficial developments, not because it would be realistic.
Well Norway has $8.5 prices and also higher purchase prices for the gasoline cars. The result. We sold about 40% as many Leafs as Nissan did in all of US in little Norway (there was a big celebration this week when we just ticked above 5 000 000 inhabitants). So my main point is I think prices are important. Here the Leaf costs about 10-20% more than the base VW Golf (a similar car in size and features), but using the relatively high level of features in the Leaf a similarily equipped Golf is about 10-20% more. That means the Leaf is selling a lot, still only about 30% as much as the Golf but the Golf has been our mostselling car model the last 8 years or so, so that is saying a lot.
So for the US I believe we need $5 gasoline prices and the Bluestar for EVs to really start to take off. Or the Gen II Leaf I suppose.
Cobos
Originally Posted by Teslawisher
Yes, you can't "easily" take an EV (even one with range capabilities like Tesla) on long road trips because of where and how long to recharge.
"Easily" and "long" take on very subjective tone. To me, even with the S you can't "easily" (not saying it can't be done with a little planning and forthought - it can) take "long" roadtrips. I live in the middle of IL, so long roadtrips to me are visiting a friend in Detroit, going to TX, FL, or the North West states. Others' definitions will be different based on their needs. PLus, I was limiting my comments to the US (I do need to be conscious to keep my mind open to International needs and developments).
I can't wait to see how opinions move (either way - but I hope for the better) once folks start taking delivery of the S and the general public starts really seeing them out and about in the real world. I hope eveyone who gets one looks up local car events/shows and tries to be a presence. Whatever can be done to spread the good word.
Yes, you can't "easily" take an EV (even one with range capabilities like Tesla) on long road trips because of where and how long to recharge.
"Easily" and "long" take on very subjective tone. To me, even with the S you can't "easily" (not saying it can't be done with a little planning and forthought - it can) take "long" roadtrips. I live in the middle of IL, so long roadtrips to me are visiting a friend in Detroit, going to TX, FL, or the North West states. Others' definitions will be different based on their needs. PLus, I was limiting my comments to the US (I do need to be conscious to keep my mind open to International needs and developments).
I can't wait to see how opinions move (either way - but I hope for the better) once folks start taking delivery of the S and the general public starts really seeing them out and about in the real world. I hope eveyone who gets one looks up local car events/shows and tries to be a presence. Whatever can be done to spread the good word.
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