Toyota bets big on Fuel Cell Vehicles

[HHHH]

Toyota CEO Jim Lentz: We're betting big on fuel cell cars - Fortune Tech

Now that Tesla has stopped supplying Toyota with batteries, it seems that Toyota's focus has shifted.

 

[efusco]

It's not a shift, they've been "focusing" on HFC for the last 20 years. Same tired story, same lack of potential. Same death spiral.

 

[ggies07]

haha, so much is wrong here:

Nope, it'll happen in about 3 years from Tesla

Another factor is that prices of batteries used in electric vehicles aren't dropping dramatically enough to offer consumers a long-range vehicle at a reasonable price. "It'll happen some day, but I can't tell you when that is," Lentz says.

So, they still want you to pay for fuel, expensive network of stations, and will still be more expensive than the Gen III model. hahahaha

and their fuel costs will be low -- about $30 for a four-passenger sedan to travel 300 miles.

There's no place to fill up a hydrogen car, and it's expensive to build hydrogen stations; they cost about $2 million apiece

When the company introduces its fuel cell car to the general public next year, the cost will be about 5% of that -- or $50,000, according to Lentz.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It's not a shift, they've been "focusing" on HFC for the last 20 years. Same tired story, same lack of potential. Same death spiral.

Hang on a minute. There have been a lot of advances in the HFCV technology during that period.

BEV is not yet a solution to a deadly problem. The sword-waving makes me sick.

 

[efusco]

Hang on a minute. There have been a lot of advances in the HFCV technology during that period.

BEV is not yet a solution to a deadly problem. The sword-waving makes me sick.

?What?

BEV may not be "the" solution, but it is "a" solution. HFC might be "a" solution as well and fossil fuel vehicles will, likely, be a part of the solution as well. But the logic for widespread adoption of hydrogen is simply flawed and makes no sense in the long term. Maybe for large cities where drivers want to fuel only occasionally and can't do so with an EV at their apartment/condo, but it makes little sense to build a whole new nationwide hydrogen infrastructure requiring ongoing shipping of the fuel in larger vehicles and huge storage facilities and no option for daily fueling at home for most drivers.

Tesla's shown that rapid charging infrastructure is reasonable, easy and perfect for those who need it intermittently while having the home charging option is ideal for the other 95% of 'refueling'. HFC offers none of that convenience and certainly won't offer the cost benefit. It's a much more complex car to build than an EV to boot.

No sword waving, just logic waving.

 

[dsm363]

So they think they can get the cost of the hydrogen refueling station down to $50,000? I doubt that.

 

[ggies07]

So they think they can get the cost of the hydrogen refueling station down to $50,000? I doubt that.

no, that was for the car.

 

[Yggdrasill]

There's no doubt Lentz is enthusiastic about his company's fuel cell future, but he said he knows other people might not feel the same way -- yet. "If you look at hybrids, it took 15 years from when we first introduced it to go to a marketplace of over 500,00," he said. "I think you can assume a similar acceptance rate of fuel cells down the road."

Most interesting bit... They think they have 15 years to sort out all the issues with the hydrogen cars.

With EVs storming ahead, Toyota will seriously feel the effects on their bottom line long before 15 years. More like 5 years.

 

[ggies07]

Most interesting bit... They think they have 15 years to sort out all the issues with the hydrogen cars.

With EVs storming ahead, Toyota will seriously feel the effects on their bottom line long before 15 years. More like 5 years.

Seriously. If Nissan can slightly adjust it's LEAF with battery range and style + Gen III, it's over. EVERYONE will want to switch.

 

[100thMonkey]

for Toyota, now that they are way behind the 8ball on EV's and figure they will never catch up, pushing hydrogen tec that is 10-15 years out feels more like a smoke screen to me for their laziness, making it seem like they are doing something, when they are simply married to their hybrid model and wanting to ride that wave out more. it's a gamble which I think they will lose.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

So they think they can get the cost of the hydrogen refueling station down to $50,000? I doubt that.

Look up the number of US gas stations.
Look up the number of US households.
Look up the number of vehicles in the USA.
Estimate the minimum potential cost of a hydrogen filling station.
Estimate the minimum potential cost of installing a home L2 "charger" capable of charging a long-range BEV fast enough to be useful.

Do the math and compare. Cost of the infrastructure is not going to be a factor that blocks either approach.

 

[wraithnot]

Look up the number of US gas stations.
Look up the number of US households.
Look up the number of vehicles in the USA.
Estimate the minimum potential cost of a hydrogen filling station.
Estimate the minimum potential cost of installing a home L2 "charger" capable of charging a long-range BEV fast enough to be useful.

Do the math and compare. Cost of the infrastructure is not going to be a factor that blocks either approach.

The article in the original post gives us a pretty good idea of what the infrastructure for hydrogen vehicles will cost:

"Lentz said that Toyota has been working with University of California at Irvine to determine the optimal location of stations and how many stations the state actually needs to satisfy about 10,000 fuel cell vehicles. "That number is 68," he said."

"But for all the pros there's a major con: There's no place to fill up a hydrogen car, and it's expensive to build hydrogen stations; they cost about $2 million apiece."

68 stations x $2,000,000 per station = $136,000,000 to support 10,000 cars. This works out to $13,600 per car. It cost me $350 to get a 50 amp outlet installed in my garage since the electric grid is already built.

$13,600 per car might not be a total deal breaker, but couple that to a $50,000 sticker price for a four-door sedan that presumably performs about as well and has similar fuel costs per mile as a $25,000 Honda Civic hybrid and it seems like a pretty tough sell for the average person.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The article in the original post gives us a pretty good idea of what the infrastructure for hydrogen vehicles will cost:

"Lentz said that Toyota has been working with University of California at Irvine to determine the optimal location of stations and how many stations the state actually needs to satisfy about 10,000 fuel cell vehicles. "That number is 68," he said."

"But for all the pros there's a major con: There's no place to fill up a hydrogen car, and it's expensive to build hydrogen stations; they cost about $2 million apiece."

68 stations x $2,000,000 per station = $136,000,000 to support 10,000 cars. This works out to $13,600 per car. It cost me $350 to get a 50 amp outlet installed in my garage since the electric grid is already built.

You're just using the number of cars in the program. The program doesn't matter, the question is what would it _actually_ cost.

For home charging, take your minimal $350 for all US households and it still comes in at $60B. But there's on-street parking, shared lots, or simply more complicated installations, along with more than one vehicle per household that would make the cost larger.

The infrastructural cost is simply _not_ a relevant factor in whether HFCV is valid.

 

[rabar10]

The infrastructural cost is simply _not_ a relevant factor in whether HFCV is valid.

No, but infrastructure availability _is_.

My own garage BEV "refueling" infrastructure cost me $0, because I currently use the L1 plug that was already there. My cost to optionally upgrade to L2 would be about $750 for the EVSE and wiring. But with a HFCV, I do not have that option presented to me. I'm entirely dependent on outside sources for refueling.

Edit: the point is, when the incremental cost per "charging station" is so much lower, the number of individuals/businesses/entities that can afford to buy/use/provide such services goes way up. No longer are you waiting for "somebody" to install a refueling station before it's even possible to use a HFCV in your area. Makes adoption much smoother and faster.

 

[Doug_G]

Toyota bets big on Fuel Cell Vehicles

...and loses.

 

[dsm363]

no, that was for the car.

That makes more sense, thanks. I couldn't tell from that quote what they were walking about after the $2 million for a fueling station.

If Tesla can install 10 Supercharger locations for the cost of one hydrogen station then they have a big advantage.

 

[dsm363]

Look up the number of US gas stations.
Look up the number of US households.
Look up the number of vehicles in the USA.
Estimate the minimum potential cost of a hydrogen filling station.
Estimate the minimum potential cost of installing a home L2 "charger" capable of charging a long-range BEV fast enough to be useful.

Do the math and compare. Cost of the infrastructure is not going to be a factor that blocks either approach.

Well once there is demand for hundreds of thousands of EVSEs a year I don't think the cost will still be $700 for a decent unit. The problem is you are starting from scratch with hydrogen. The wires to houses are already there although installation and upgrade costs are needed. Also, you have to lease or buy land for the fueling stations. If you want to replicate gas stations in a crowded city like New York that won't be cheap either (parking isn't either). Also, there are some that would treat their electric car like refueling a gas car. Maybe plug in while shopping then DC quick charging to fuel up faster.

I don't doubt they can't build hydrogen stations if they want to as the oil and gas industry had profits measured in billions a year though.

 

[jerry33]

Well once there is demand for hundreds of thousands of EVSEs a year I don't think the cost will still be $700 for a decent unit. The problem is you are starting from scratch with hydrogen. The wires to houses are already there although installation and upgrade costs are needed. Also, you have to lease or buy land for the fueling stations. If you want to replicate gas stations in a crowded city like New York that won't be cheap either (parking isn't either). Also, there are some that would treat their electric car like refueling a gas car. Maybe plug in while shopping then DC quick charging to fuel up faster.

I don't doubt they can't build hydrogen stations if they want to as the oil and gas industry had profits measured in billions a year though.

And I'm guessing another problem will be that no one will want a hydrogen station in their neighbourhood.

 

[RobStark]

no, that was for the car.

No, that is for the fuel cell powertrain.

 

[Electroman]

What would it cost to fuel an HCFV to drive 100 miles ? In my Leaf it is $3 and Tesla I presume around $4.