Toyota bets big on Fuel Cell Vehicles

[TonyWilliams]

Toyota is essentially screwed with fuel cells, at least in the US...

Now hydrogen is pretty expensive, electricity is cheaper, which one would you purchase?

Not to mention who would be willing to take a risk spending Billions of dollars building stations?

Not to mention that you have a competing technology that by its very natural decreases (batteries) in cost every generation due to improvements in chemistry.

If lithium air or silicon batteries are introduced, it's the death knell for hydrogen

Toyota is not "screwed" with fuel cells. They clearly need to do something to pacify CARB and sell 150,000 oil burning cars in California every year, or 1,500,000 in ten years. That's a LOT of incentive to do whatever it takes.

Fool cells allow them to build less cars with better "containment" (some people liked the Rav4 EV so much, they actually bought them out of state until Toyota cracked down on dealers Oct 1, 2013). Nobody is going to take a Toyota fool cell car anywhere but California. Toyota will only lease them and crush them. They get to physically make LESS actual cars. They can build them in house instead of sending $100 million to Tesla.

Since they only need to build a quantity of 288 hydrogen cars per model year through 2017, I don't see this as a fail. I see them successfully lobbying CARB to extend the preferential treatment for hydrogen through at least 2025, always with the promise that nirvana is just_around_the_corner.

Toyota doesn't have to build hydrogen stations. They threw out some "chump change" to jump start the tax payer funded system, and we tax payers will take over from there, with $1 million in ongoing costs per year per station just to keep in operational, in addition to the huge costs to build them. So, who is willing to risk the money? You will.

Every hydrogen dreamer that I have ever listened to always seems to be stuck with battery technology ended in 2009 (and a Tesla Model S is usually not mentioned), party over. But, somehow, hydrogen just keeps getting better and better.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I really don't see how Toyota can think that hydrogen has a future, given how dangerous it is. I'm sure it's just a way to kick the "EV can" down the road.

For them, I think the PR offensive is about getting CA to be generous, but the investment in the technology is serious. I don't think they're kicking the can, because I don't think they believe in the can, or if they do they, they think that kicking it will scuff their expensive shoes.

 

[TonyWilliams]

For them, I think the PR offensive is about getting CA to be generous, but the investment in the technology is serious. I don't think they're kicking the can, because I don't think they believe in the can, or if they do they, they think that kicking it will scuff their expensive shoes.

They definitely have a bunch of "Yes-Men", because they all sing the same song with hydrogen.

 

[spacexfan]

the problem with H2 cars is that there is much more required to make them mass "attractive". the H2 has to be produced "clean" and not with current steam reforming. The only way to produce it on industriual scales is via nuclear power plants, 4th gen to be more precise. they will have to be build. EVs work with current nuclear reactors and the current grid mix.

if you drive an H2 car today, you might as well get a honda cng...

 

[hiroshiy]

Just curious: do you have these fuel cell water heaters in the U.S.?
“Œ‹žƒKƒXFƒGƒlƒtƒ@[ƒ€ƒXƒyƒVƒƒƒ‹ƒTƒCƒg^ƒGƒlƒtƒ@[ƒ€‚Æ‚Í-»•iŽd—l^Šó–]¬”„‰¿Ši

I'm not sure this technology can be used for automotive use but Honda also is developing 35M FC generator for FCVs.

“d‹CŽ©“®ŽÔF‰Æ’ë‚É“d—Í‚ð6“úŠÔ‹Ÿ‹‹‚Å‚«‚éƒzƒ“ƒ_‚ÌŽÔA‘¾—z“d’r‚Å…‘f‚𶬠- MONOist

Very old article but it seems four years ago Honda was able to fill FCX Clarity at 150km per 24 hours, which is 3.9 miles per hour. Not impressive but could work for general consumers replacing water heaters?

 

[hiroshiy]

Oh I know those LNG generated H2 does not contribute to reduce carbon footprint.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Just curious: do you have these fuel cell water heaters in the U.S.?
“Œ‹žƒKƒX￾FƒGƒlƒtƒ@￾[ƒ€ƒXƒyƒVƒƒƒ‹ƒTƒCƒg￾^ƒGƒlƒtƒ@￾[ƒ€‚Æ‚Í-￾»•iŽd—l￾^Šó–]￾¬”„‰¿Ši

I'm not sure this technology can be used for automotive use but Honda also is developing 35M FC generator for FCVs.

“d‹CŽ©“®ŽÔ￾F‰Æ’ë‚É“d—Í‚ð6“úŠÔ‹Ÿ‹‹‚Å‚«‚éƒzƒ“ƒ_‚ÌŽÔ￾A‘¾—z“d’r‚Å￾…‘f‚ð￾¶￾¬ - MONOist

Very old article but it seems four years ago Honda was able to fill FCX Clarity at 150km per 24 hours, which is 3.9 miles per hour. Not impressive but could work for general consumers replacing water heaters?

In the US, home fuel cells are essentially non-existent. There are some commercial fuel cells (like bloombox) but they are SOFCs that run on natural gas directly. The Japan ones AFAIK are heavily subsidized.

I think the issue is that they are massively expensive, from your link it's $2 million yen or about $20k and that's probably after subsidy. A typical water heater in the US only costs $1k for a high end efficient one, a solar water heater costs about $5k, so no one will see any sense in a fuel cell one (esp. given even a typical water heater is quite efficient already).

 

[hiroshiy]

Hi, @stopcrazypp:
Thanks for the information. Understood- I think in the U.S. fuel and electricity is cheap enough so fuel cells even in non-auto industries do not make sense, economically.
For Japan, though, we don't have domestic oil and high prices of gas ($6 per gal) and electricity (30 cents per kWh) seems to make some savings if people move from
"only electricity" or "only gas" to fuel cells at home, spending a little bit more NG and reduce electricity usage. Tokyo Gas says the average household in Tokyo will save
approx $500 - 600 annually using fuel cell based water heater (and generator in it).
$20K price tag is before subsidy. Government subsidy for PEFC for home is $3.8K. This PEFC doesn't have H2 tanks as it generates electricity with fuel cell as it cracks NG.
To "fill" FCVs I think different technology is being developed but I'm sure FCV folks are working on H2 stations as well as home filling stations.

 

[derekt75]

I don't get it: are they using natural gas to create electricity to heat water? If you want hot water, why not just burn the natural gas? or are they using natural gas to create electricity to power a home and using the waste heat of the fuel cell to heat hot water?

- - - Updated - - -

the problem with H2 cars is that there is much more required to make them mass "attractive". the H2 has to be produced "clean" and not with current steam reforming. The only way to produce it on industriual scales is via nuclear power plants, 4th gen to be more precise. they will have to be build. EVs work with current nuclear reactors and the current grid mix.

if you drive an H2 car today, you might as well get a honda cng...

Electricity from nuclear plants is too valuable to be used to create Hydrogen. Far less CO2 is emitted if you power a home with nuclear and power your H2 car with steam reformed natural gas than if you power your home with natural gas and power your H2 car with H2 from a nuclear power plant.

Until there's a surplus of clean electricity on the grid (and I don't see that happening any time soon (c'mon fusion!)), the only environmentally responsible way to produce H2 is through steam reformation.
and as long as you're using natural gas as the energy source for your fuel cell car, I agree that you might as well just put the CNG in your tank rather than stripping out the Carbon and putting only the Hydrogen in your tank.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I don't get it: are they using natural gas to create electricity to heat water? If you want hot water, why not just burn the natural gas? or are they using natural gas to create electricity to power a home and using the waste heat of the fuel cell to heat hot water?

I would imagine the latter. The former doesn't make as much sense financially (it can't be that much more efficient than a typical natural gas water heater).

In the US, it'll be similar to someone with a solar PV system that powers a heat pump based water heater (both electrical and heat demand is satisfied).

 

[mnx]

or are they using natural gas to create electricity to power a home and using the waste heat of the fuel cell to heat hot water?

Correct. Hot water is a byproduct of generating electricity. See BlueGen
for example.

 

[silentlibrarian]

Anyone who's already experienced the convenience of EV charging at home won't be interested spending a lot of money to buy a fuel cell vehicle and basically have to go back to refueling station just like the last century era of gasoline car

 

[AnOutsider]

In interpreted Elon's comments yesterday to mean that Toyota wanted to go in with BEV, but Tesla couldn't yet supply them quick enough, so they went to Fuel Cells to meet their emissions goals in the interim.

 

[qwk]

In interpreted Elon's comments yesterday to mean that Toyota wanted to go in with BEV, but Tesla couldn't yet supply them quick enough, so they went to Fuel Cells to meet their emissions goals in the interim.

Earlier, Elon said that he offered to supply drive trains for the Rav4 EV to Toyota for basically cost, and they weren't interested. Now he said the opposite. I wonder what is going on between Tesla and Toyota?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Earlier, Elon said that he offered to supply drive trains for the Rav4 EV to Toyota for basically cost, and they weren't interested. Now he said the opposite. I wonder what is going on between Tesla and Toyota?

The implication of the two combined is that Toyota was only interested if Tesla could scale (and thus lower prices) but they couldn't scale for Toyota and scale themselves.

 

[ggies07]

The implication of the two combined is that Toyota was only interested if Tesla could scale (and thus lower prices) but they couldn't scale for Toyota and scale themselves.

So in simple terms it's: Nerd in class can't do our homework, so we won't do the hard work ourselves and instead make up some BS that hopefully the teacher (citizens) will accept.

 

[Larry Chanin]

In interpreted Elon's comments yesterday to mean that Toyota wanted to go in with BEV, but Tesla couldn't yet supply them quick enough, so they went to Fuel Cells to meet their emissions goals in the interim.

Below is an excerpt of the transcript of Elon's response regarding the question about fuel cells:

Yes, Tesla couldn't satisfy both Toyota's and its own cell supply needs in the short run. However, it is still not clear why Toyota went with fuel cells to meet their short term emission goals and not stayed the course with an existing and much less expensive BEV approach. Pursuing a few more short term ZEV credits, but getting bogged down in selecting the wrong technology moving forward is going to be a costly mistake. It wouldn't surprise me to see Toyota try to shift back to BEVs as Elon's remarks suggests. However, if the Daimler partnership with Tesla expands beyond the B-Class EV, Toyota may find itself out in the cold.

Elon:
Yes. So first of all, I should say it's talks with Toyota didn’t really fall through. It's just we're sort of coming to the end of the RAV, electric RAV4 program. And Toyota was interested in doing sort of a high volume deal for battery packs and powertrains. But we're just not in a position to be able to supply them. So we just -- until we alleviate the cell supply constraint, it's not really possible for us to do a high volume deal. So what we are going try to do is to just sort of put things on hold for now and circle back maybe in a year or two once we alleviate the cell supply constraint. Because otherwise, we’re simply just moving one car from say Tesla to Toyota and it’s just, it’s not really accomplishing anything. So that's why we are so gung ho on the Gigafactory, so we've got to get that done in order to ensure that there is enough lithium ion supply in the world.

Larry

 

[darthvdr]

The advancements in technology are mind-blowing for someone my age

 

[gameon]

I am surprised that Honda is quiet on EV front and Fuel cell. They have good pilot program for CNG but not making much noise about fuel cell.

EV has one issue that if you don't have charging facility at home (people who lease and rent or own condo where association don't allow the installation)

 

[TonyWilliams]

A battery swapping station can handle folks who can't charge at home and can't spend 30-45 minutes at Starbucks / dinner / shopping for a recharge.

The Mercedes and Toyota issue with a scalable EV is easily solved by selling a 3rd generation Tesla as a Toyota eSupra and a Mercedes T-Class.