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Discussion in 'Electric Vehicles' started by omarsultan, Nov 6, 2016.
Toyota, in about-face, may mass-produce long-range electric cars: Nikkei
Better late than never or too little too late?
Maybe the following quote from the article is referring to Japanese automakers only, but it is otherwise inaccurate with Tesla's vehicles and Supercharging infrastructure:
You are right, but you have to consider the source: Nikkei. Doubt they're too keen on promoting a US car for Japan.
Either way, very happy to see that Toyota has smelled the fumes, seen the Lith, and are planning to move in the right direction.
If this comes to be, it will likely cost Tesla some revenue in the short-term, but in the long run, Elon wins.
The next shoe to drop from our "8 years late to the party" Japanese friends at Toyota will be quietly killing off the Mirai. Of course, there will be no press releases touting the funeral, unlike the endless cacophony coming out of the companies fuel cell ranting. Should be interesting watching the death spiral unfold going forward. Specifically:
1. The Tokyo 2020 Olympics were going to be the "showcase" for fuel cell technology. But now with the Olympics cost looking more like $30,000,000,000 versus the $7,500,000,000, and Toyota seeing the light on battery cars, where is the money going to come from for the "showcase"?
2. With dismal Mirai sales in the US (782 total), when will Toyota actually stop selling the vehicle here? Now that the writing is on the wall, even the most die hard fuel cell fanboys will have to begin considering a future that is not filled with Toyota fuel cell cars.
3. As the Toyota commitment to fuel cell cars evaporates over time, how will the $800,000,000 that VW will be investing in California be affected? The first $200,000,000 spending plan is due shortly. With the ratio of battery EV's to fuel cell EV's steadily increasing, and Toyota reluctantly throwing in the towel over time, is CARB really going to force VW to spend money on fuel cell infrastructure?
4. Will the fuel cell worshippers in the Ivory Tower of CARB wait until the peasants (EV drivers) come at them with blazing torches and pitchforks (figuratively of course ) before they acknowledge that fuel cell technology for passenger cars is a dead end technology, and the experiment needs to end before any more resources are wasted?
Betamax, HD-DVD, Kodak, Toyota, RIP...
P.S. Been waiting a very long time to refer to Tesla drivers as peasants. Maybe this is a first?
Here's a report which also alludes to shifts in strategy away from hydrogen by Honda and Hyundai, as well as Toyota:
Toyota is planning long-range battery-powered electric cars for 2020 as its hydrogen fuel cells cars are failing
AS I have noted before, these companies that invested heavily in hydrogen fuel cell vehicles made a mistake -- but not a critical one. Much of that R&D can be re-purposed to BEVs and PHEVs without too much difficulty. They have the resources to do that.
The real losers are going to be the companies that never pursued electrification at all, or only to the minimum extent that they could get away with. FCA (Fiat Chrysler America) is the biggest and most blatant example. Mazda is another company that comes to mind. They're really going to find themselves in a tough corner soon.
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (Naamloze vennootschap) or simply is FCA is incorporated in The Netherlands.
Domiciled in the United Kingdom for tax purposes.
Exor S.p.A. , an Italian investment group owned by the Agnelli family, owns 29.19% of FCA and controls 44.31% of the voting shares through a loyalty voting mechanism
But all top management lives in suburban Detroit.
I don't share your disdain for CARB and I like and respect Toyota a lot (although I love Tesla), but I do think the CARB infatuation with fuel cells cars is a mistake and look forward to them changing course to a more pro EV stance. A balanced support would be a good start, e.g. setting EVs equal to fuel cell cars in terms of ZEV credits.
Yes, hopefully with Toyota acknowledging and re-positioning themselves for BEVs the obvious wrong of 9 credits for FCV vs. 4 for BEVs will be corrected. This of course is related to the provision which gives an extra 5 credits because a vehicle can be essentially fully fueled in less than 15 minutes irregardless of total range.
This is an inherent bias against BEVs due to the physics of batteries (as was pointed out in the comments by a non-Tesla company). As I pointed out in other threads, even if Tesla comes out with a 200 kWh battery with 600 mile range, because the way the rules are written it would never get the additional 5 credits because it will take 20-30 minutes to fuel to 480 mile range (80%). 480 miles of course, would be more range than most full gas tanks now. IIRC the rules are written that the vehicle must be able to achieve 95% capacity in 15 minutes to get the extra 5 credits.
Please correct me if I'm wrong about the credits or the facts.
IMHO, with Toyota in support of BEVs, the politics keeping this ridiculous rule will hopefully be removed.
They can keep the rule if they require fuel cell cars to have home refueling.
That would be a scary prospect to store my own hydrogen...
What is a ZEV credit worth these days ?
Tesla just sold credits last quarter for ~2500
The fine for not having enough credits is $5,000 per credit.
Elon said they got 50 cents on the dollar.
One Credit is worth $2500 ?
The wider car industry put $10k per EV into the company coffer ?
Wow. Any idea what the total market for credits might be ? I presume fraction of total sales as dictated by CARB, minus however many the other manufacturers gain themselves. I'm beginning to wonder how the other car companies still find it profitable to sale a car in CA (and perhaps the CARB compliant states as well.)
When does the next jump in forced zero emission sale fraction occur ?
One credit is worth as much as one can sell it for.
Maximum theoretical value is 5000 USD, as manufecturer is fined 15k if he does not have 3 credits per ICE car sold.
This must be wrong. Perhaps you mean fined three credit per disallowed ICE car ?
Say CARB requires 2% of fleet sales be zero emission cars and a company sells 'x', 100% ICE cars.
The 0.02x are disallowed and the company has to pay 3*5000*0.02x dollars or come up with
Is this how it works ?
If so it is one hell of a stick. I wonder how a company like Honda survives since they are not a high margin truck and SUV company overall. It will be a sad side-effect of the ZEV mandate if the truck heavy companies survive and the small efficient passenger car companies do not. Are SULEV cars still credited ?
Addendum: CARB credit rules from 2018
Is my quick read of SULEV-plug-ins or BEV correct (ignoring H2, etc) ?
Thanks for the correction.
My point still stands, though. Toyota will be OK, and probably Honda too. FCA? Not so much.
I don't think Ford is in great position either. I mean. . . What have they got? Ford Focus EV? Did they even develop the powertrain for it themselves?
Ford sells WAY more EV's and PHEV's than Toyota and Honda combined on their worst month.
I understand that the Japanese themselves are supermen. But after owning a few of their cars? They should find another line of work.
And knock off the crappy forklifts too. Those are SIMPLE to build right, give it a try.
They have survived til know by buying credits from Tesla.
And to a smaller extent Accord Plug-in, Honda Fit EV, and Civic CNG. SULEV don't count to ZEV credits anymore.
If you don't have the credits you pay a fine of $5k per missing credit.
In the very near future Honda will have the Clarity FCEV, Clarity PHEV and Clarity BEV.
Honda has a collaboration with GM on FCEV.
They have purchased Volt tech for their PHEV but will use a Honda ICE for their range extender.
I have not heard if they are buying battery packs or battery cells to make their own pack for the Clarity BEV.
The first to get hit by the Tesla Tsunami is the automakers that get most of their profit from premium priced sedans and crossovers. In other words the Germans.
Then the automakers that depend on full size trucks and SUVs for the majority of their profits. In other words Detroit.
The last to be hit are the automakers that get most of their profits from mainstream sedans, crossovers, and small-medium sized trucks. In other words the Japanese.