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Toyota Blinks on BEVs?
- Thread starter omarsultan
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- Electric Vehicles
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Because Tesla will compete in the $35k- $160k market for the foreseeable future.
First with sedans and crossovers later with full size pickups and Suburban/Expedition type full size SUVs.
The Japanese will be able to hide for a while selling $12k-$30k cars in the developed world and $8k-$30k cars in the developing world for a while.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Tesla does not compete in that space, but my point is that the CARB penalty is a lot larger fraction of the marginal profit for the Japanese. I don't know how to explain this any better. ;-(
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The Japanese make profits in the compact and subcompact sedan and hatchback market. Toyota made ~$5B net profit last quarter. GM made !$5B net profit in all of 2015.
The Germans and Detroit sell at cost or below in the compact and subcompact sedan space for not only ZEV credits but to meet CAFE obligations. This includes VW Group which gets almost all profits from Audi and Porsche.
Nissan does not buy any CARB credits.
Toyota very few. With Prius Prime,IMO, they will no longer need to buy credits.
Honda will likely not be buying credits in the future with the various Clarity models.
Mazda and Subaru are riding the coattails of Toyota, likely the Prius Prime platform.
Tesla will. But as battery costs drop, you're going to see some very inexpensive, likely Chinese / Indian, cars hitting the market. A basic compact EV is a very simple device; much simpler than a conventional car. In a decade, I think you're going to see the return of the (inflation adjusted) $5k compact car.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Toyota customers are not going to trust the safety of their families to a $5k Indian/Chinese car.
At least not for the first 20 years. I wouldn't.
One thing that will eat away at Toyotas market share is autonomous taxis. For many people, it will be the cheapest and most flexible option, at least for the second or third car.
BluestarE3
Active Member
Unless it's only meant for the local Asian market, such a $5,000 car won't even pass US auto safety regulations to be sold here.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Volvo may be owned by Geely but Volvos are engineered in Sweden and manufactured in Sweden.
Except for the ToL one. That will now be manufactured in China. That does not cost $5k. You can put a lot more safety into a $60k plus car than a $5k one. People are predisposed to trust Volvo. Until Volvo proves untrustworthy. I doubt we will see a Chinese made $5k Volvo (even adjusted for inflation) sold in the USA ever.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Autonomous taxis will devour public transportation and standard taxis before the harm Toyota.
You know that a lot of taxis are Toyotas. IIRC most taxis I've ever ridden in Asia are Toyotas (way back when, Corollas and Camry). My experience with Taxis in SF and Seattle are all Prius. Middle America, more GM.
I also recall that Toyotas are now the fleet vehicle of choice for a lot of rental agencies.
This is going to hit at everyone, why own the car when the car just comes and picks you up? Autonomous cars are going to greatly impact the car industry, I'd love to not need to own 2 cars, if we could really get self driving cars I could see giving up 1.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
RobStark
Well-Known Member
IMHO the orange haired elephant in the White House come January may blow all these projections completely out of the water. If the EPA is essentially shuttered, there will be no US incentives whatsoever for BEVs, CAFE standards or Federal clean air rules. With complete control of the White House and Congress, the Republicans can kill all the environmental laws very quickly.
It may be wiser to bet on coal powered cars getting subsidies than fuel cell powered.
It may be wiser to bet on coal powered cars getting subsidies than fuel cell powered.
We'll see. I don't think people fully appreciate how simple EVs can be, and how cheap they will be once battery prices are down and volumes are up.
The Chery QQ3 EV already sells in China for $6,500 USD.
TonyWilliams
Active Member
California allows via Air Resources Board (CARB), Energy Commission, etc:
1) Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) credits - 9 for hydrogen -vs- 3 or 4 for EVs
2) $5000 state rebate or each hydrogen car sold -vs- $1500 or $2500 for hybrids and EVs
3) Exemption from "traveling provision" for hydrogen -vs- EVs must be sold in all 8 ZEV states starting MY2018 (see below)
4) $20 million spent per year, every year, for hydrogen infrastructure -vs- no guaranteed funding for EV infrastructure
5) You can bet that the hydrogen block will get MORE then their fair share of the VW bucks
*************
Model Year - ZEV Credit Percent Requirement
2012 ------------ 0.79%
2018 ------------ 2.00%
2019 ------------ 4.00%
2020 ------------ 6.00%
2021 ------------ 8.00%
2022 ----------- 10.00%
2023 ----------- 12.00%
2024 ----------- 14.00%
2025 ----------- 16.00%
*************
Starting in 2012, the six "Large Vehicle Manufacturers" (LVM) were required to sell a minimum number of California Air Resources Board - Zero Emission Vehicle (CARB-ZEV) qualifying vehicles for compliance in California:
Manufacturer - ZEV used for CARB compliance, model years 2012-2014:
Ford - Focus EV
Honda - Fit EV
Chrysler/Fiat - 500e
Toyota - Rav4 EV, iQ EV
GM Chevrolet - Spark EV
Nissan - LEAF
For model years 2015 and beyond, both LVM and Intermediate Vehicle Manufacturers (IVM) must comply with CARB-ZEV:
BMW - i3, including gasoline hybrid version dubbed "REx"
Fiat/Chrysler - 500e (CEO of Fiat famously said, "Don't buy my car")
Ford - Focus EV, or more capable EV, like GM?
General Motors - Spark EV, Bolt EV
Honda - absolutley hydrogen plus an EV
Hyundai - absolutley hydrogen plus an EV
Kia - Soul EV, other EVs in the future, maybe hydrogen
Mazda - Demio EV (where is this), plus hydrogen car with Toyota technology
Daimler/Mercedes - B-Class ED, Smart ED, some hydrogen by 2018 - 2020?, Tesla Model S like car by 2020
Nissan - LEAF, eNV-2000, probably other future EVs
Toyota - absolutely hydrogen only in USA / Europe / Japan, a limited market EV in regulatory markets of China, Japan and California only
Volkswagen - eGolf, 310 mile Audi Q6 e-tron SUV, and 265 mile Porsche sedan for 2018 "Tesla Model S competitor"
************
Auto manufacturers that are NOT subject to CARB-ZEV due to their small sales in California. These additional manufacturers are required to comply with the ZEV requirements, but would be allowed to meet their obligation with Plug-In Hybrids (PHEV):
Tesla - Roadster, Model S, Model X, Model 3 (all EV)
Mitsubishi - iMiev (EV) and Outlander Plug-in hybrid
Fuji Heavy Industry (Subaru) - ?
Jaguar Land Rover - EV
Volvo - plug-in hybrid CUV
Aston Martin Lagonda - DBX EV
Update, May 18, 2015
The California Air Resources Board rejected a plea from Jaguar Land Rover, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Subaru and Volvo to be exempted from the ZEV mandate. They had argued that their small r&d budgets will keep them from developing and selling electrified cars as easily as full-line automakers such as Ford, General Motors and Nissan, which already must sell ZEVs.
Automakers with less than $40 billion in annual global revenue -- which includes Jaguar Land Rover, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Subaru and Volvo -- now will have the option to sell plug-in hybrids only to earn "credits" toward compliance, rather than being forced to sell some all-electric or hydrogen cars. If they don't sell enough, they'll still need to buy credits from companies such as Tesla Motors Inc. that sell electric cars in large numbers.
*******
For 2018 model year and beyond, ZEV credits per vehicle are based on range only, from 1 to 4 credits.
Here are the rules for 2012-2017 model years:
NOTE: "fast refueling" has been modified to require every car in the fleet to swap the battery once, or 4% of the fleet to have 25 maximum swaps, or some value inbetween (2014). Fast Refueling is described as the "ability to refuel to 95% of full capacity within 15 minutes or less".
Type V - 300+ miles range "hydrogen" - Credit per vehicle: 9 (2015-2017 only)
Type V - 300+ miles range "fast refueling" - Credit per vehicle: 7
Type IV - 200+ miles range "fast refueling" - Credit per vehicle: 5
Type III - 100+ miles range "fast refueling" - Credit per vehicle: 4
Type III - 200+ miles range -------------- Credit per vehicle: 4
Type II - 100+ miles range --------------- Credit per vehicle: 3
Type I.5 - 75-100 miles range ----------- Credit per vehicle: 2.5
Type I - 50-75 miles range --------------- Credit per vehicle: 2
All manufacturers must report by May of the calendar year following the compliance model year; e.g., for 2008 model year, report is due may 1, 2009. Manufacturers may update reports until September. Manufacturers have two years to make up a ZEV deficit, or they are subject to penalties outlines in Health and Safety Code 43211:
$5000 penalty per vehicle CREDIT not produced
******
CARB states - Arizona, California, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, District of Columbia.
CARB-Zero Emission Vehicle states - California’s ZEV program has now been adopted by the states of Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont. These states, known as the “Section 177 states,” have chosen to adopt California's air quality standards in lieu of federal requirements as authorized under Section 177 of the federal Clean Air Act. Additionally, California’s GHG standards are now spelled out federal law. Maine, Washington DC and New Jersey are participating with ZEV initiatives, but are not signatory CARB-ZEV states.
1) Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) credits - 9 for hydrogen -vs- 3 or 4 for EVs
2) $5000 state rebate or each hydrogen car sold -vs- $1500 or $2500 for hybrids and EVs
3) Exemption from "traveling provision" for hydrogen -vs- EVs must be sold in all 8 ZEV states starting MY2018 (see below)
4) $20 million spent per year, every year, for hydrogen infrastructure -vs- no guaranteed funding for EV infrastructure
5) You can bet that the hydrogen block will get MORE then their fair share of the VW bucks
*************
Model Year - ZEV Credit Percent Requirement
2012 ------------ 0.79%
2018 ------------ 2.00%
2019 ------------ 4.00%
2020 ------------ 6.00%
2021 ------------ 8.00%
2022 ----------- 10.00%
2023 ----------- 12.00%
2024 ----------- 14.00%
2025 ----------- 16.00%
*************
Starting in 2012, the six "Large Vehicle Manufacturers" (LVM) were required to sell a minimum number of California Air Resources Board - Zero Emission Vehicle (CARB-ZEV) qualifying vehicles for compliance in California:
Manufacturer - ZEV used for CARB compliance, model years 2012-2014:
Ford - Focus EV
Honda - Fit EV
Chrysler/Fiat - 500e
Toyota - Rav4 EV, iQ EV
GM Chevrolet - Spark EV
Nissan - LEAF
For model years 2015 and beyond, both LVM and Intermediate Vehicle Manufacturers (IVM) must comply with CARB-ZEV:
BMW - i3, including gasoline hybrid version dubbed "REx"
Fiat/Chrysler - 500e (CEO of Fiat famously said, "Don't buy my car")
Ford - Focus EV, or more capable EV, like GM?
General Motors - Spark EV, Bolt EV
Honda - absolutley hydrogen plus an EV
Hyundai - absolutley hydrogen plus an EV
Kia - Soul EV, other EVs in the future, maybe hydrogen
Mazda - Demio EV (where is this), plus hydrogen car with Toyota technology
Daimler/Mercedes - B-Class ED, Smart ED, some hydrogen by 2018 - 2020?, Tesla Model S like car by 2020
Nissan - LEAF, eNV-2000, probably other future EVs
Toyota - absolutely hydrogen only in USA / Europe / Japan, a limited market EV in regulatory markets of China, Japan and California only
Volkswagen - eGolf, 310 mile Audi Q6 e-tron SUV, and 265 mile Porsche sedan for 2018 "Tesla Model S competitor"
************
Auto manufacturers that are NOT subject to CARB-ZEV due to their small sales in California. These additional manufacturers are required to comply with the ZEV requirements, but would be allowed to meet their obligation with Plug-In Hybrids (PHEV):
Tesla - Roadster, Model S, Model X, Model 3 (all EV)
Mitsubishi - iMiev (EV) and Outlander Plug-in hybrid
Fuji Heavy Industry (Subaru) - ?
Jaguar Land Rover - EV
Volvo - plug-in hybrid CUV
Aston Martin Lagonda - DBX EV
Update, May 18, 2015
The California Air Resources Board rejected a plea from Jaguar Land Rover, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Subaru and Volvo to be exempted from the ZEV mandate. They had argued that their small r&d budgets will keep them from developing and selling electrified cars as easily as full-line automakers such as Ford, General Motors and Nissan, which already must sell ZEVs.
Automakers with less than $40 billion in annual global revenue -- which includes Jaguar Land Rover, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Subaru and Volvo -- now will have the option to sell plug-in hybrids only to earn "credits" toward compliance, rather than being forced to sell some all-electric or hydrogen cars. If they don't sell enough, they'll still need to buy credits from companies such as Tesla Motors Inc. that sell electric cars in large numbers.
*******
For 2018 model year and beyond, ZEV credits per vehicle are based on range only, from 1 to 4 credits.
Here are the rules for 2012-2017 model years:
NOTE: "fast refueling" has been modified to require every car in the fleet to swap the battery once, or 4% of the fleet to have 25 maximum swaps, or some value inbetween (2014). Fast Refueling is described as the "ability to refuel to 95% of full capacity within 15 minutes or less".
Type V - 300+ miles range "hydrogen" - Credit per vehicle: 9 (2015-2017 only)
Type V - 300+ miles range "fast refueling" - Credit per vehicle: 7
Type IV - 200+ miles range "fast refueling" - Credit per vehicle: 5
Type III - 100+ miles range "fast refueling" - Credit per vehicle: 4
Type III - 200+ miles range -------------- Credit per vehicle: 4
Type II - 100+ miles range --------------- Credit per vehicle: 3
Type I.5 - 75-100 miles range ----------- Credit per vehicle: 2.5
Type I - 50-75 miles range --------------- Credit per vehicle: 2
All manufacturers must report by May of the calendar year following the compliance model year; e.g., for 2008 model year, report is due may 1, 2009. Manufacturers may update reports until September. Manufacturers have two years to make up a ZEV deficit, or they are subject to penalties outlines in Health and Safety Code 43211:
$5000 penalty per vehicle CREDIT not produced
******
CARB states - Arizona, California, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, District of Columbia.
CARB-Zero Emission Vehicle states - California’s ZEV program has now been adopted by the states of Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont. These states, known as the “Section 177 states,” have chosen to adopt California's air quality standards in lieu of federal requirements as authorized under Section 177 of the federal Clean Air Act. Additionally, California’s GHG standards are now spelled out federal law. Maine, Washington DC and New Jersey are participating with ZEV initiatives, but are not signatory CARB-ZEV states.
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