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Tracking and reporting of reservations, orders, and deliveries
- Thread starter Paul Carter
- Start date
dwebb66
Member
jsollender
Member
With TMC stating they delivered 2400 MX in Q1, and had ramp of 750 cars/week output from Fremont, that's 3000 cars a month as long as suppliers don't constrain production. That's great news for all of configured/confirmed orders to move along. I'm just not sure when they will turn on the 5-seat production variants. Looking at modelxtracker.com, it only shows 144 deliveries in Q1, meaning each listing on this unofficial site represents about 16 customers. I know now that original reservation sequence numbers are meaningless, with mine being in the mid-16,000 range. Making wide margin or error cancellations of 15-25%, that would put me somewhere in the 12-13,000 range of real orders. With 2400 plus December's pittance deliveries, that leaves 10,000 cars ahead of me. Thus, at 3,000 cars output per month, that seems to point to 3+ months to get my delivery, which is smack dab in "mid-2016" as claimed at order for 5-seater. Anyone else feel that their delivery is anticipated to be on time, or Tesla-Time (late)?
Also, is there any rhyme or reason to VIN assignments? I have not seen any VIN's since 3/11/16 but for a few random assignments later in March. I cant figure out when TMC blasts out VIN assignments. Seems completely random...
Also, is there any rhyme or reason to VIN assignments? I have not seen any VIN's since 3/11/16 but for a few random assignments later in March. I cant figure out when TMC blasts out VIN assignments. Seems completely random...
My reservation number was low 17000s. I received an email earlier this week that said "If you confirm now, the estimated delivery window is April/May 2016" so your wait might not be 3 months if you placed your order now.
Because of the non-folding seats and limited time in an X, I'm 95% sure I will not be getting an X but will most likely get an S instead.
Because of the non-folding seats and limited time in an X, I'm 95% sure I will not be getting an X but will most likely get an S instead.
jsollender
Member
still that goading you to confirm will get you (or anyone) an X in April/May if you go for the currently produced P90 version or 90D version as long as you get the premium upgrade and 6-7 seats, not the 5 seater straight 90D (no premium)...Colorado Rules!!!! (Greenwood Village...)
I think looking at reservations is deceptive since we have no idea how many people have cancelled or are staying "reserved" but not ordering until they have more info. (test drive, etc.)
Tesla has released about 5300 production VIN's. (there is a single reported VIN around 11000 in modelxtracker, but since it's such an outlier, I'd consider that a typo unless confirmed) This appears to be enough to cover expected deliveries through late April/early May, given that new orders (for 90's with 6 or 7 seats) are being told they can order now and get late April/early May delivery. Also, those 5300 appear to be almost all the non-5 seat 90's that were confirmed orders as of March 11th.
Add on roughly the same number of non-5 90's for 1) new orders since the 11th, 2) trade-up orders from 70's and 5 seat 90's, and 3) some international deliveries. So, figure another 5000 or so cars to be delivered after early May from those groups at a rate of 700 or so a week. That pushes things to the end of June.
Given all that, Tesla would be in a position to start delivering reserved 5-seat 90's and the 70's in July. The big question is if they will prioritize new premium 90 orders ahead of the "reserved" 5-seats and 70's after they've opened up the design studio.
Regarding the VIN's, the logic (as well as any outsider can know) appears to be that they are batching things by configuration and geography for production. Doing large batches, like the 5000 we saw in March, makes that more efficient. I suspect the next VIN's we see assigned will be a similar burst of 5000. Prediction is always dangerous, but I suspect we'll see another batch of 5,000 or so issued sometime in the next week.
jsollender
Member
Throw in the EM Tweet to the 5-seat reservist who he told that he would have his 5-seater in 1-2 weeks max (from 2 days ago) unless EM mis-read the tweet from a Mr. Lipstone....but that's another thread in this forum...
Very true. There could also be engineering/parts hold-ups on other configurations that haven't seen delivery yet. (70 battery pack, cloth seats, and standard suspension all spring to mind.)
Similarly, if some random component common to all build types isn't available due to a supplier mess-up, that would delay all deliveries.
Not sure the premium plays a part, as I configured 3/6, confirmed 3/13, and got VIN 52xx on 3/14 (seems to be the last time they assigned VINs perhaps, and I was just lucky to be included timing wise). I do not have the premium package. I know others without the premium have even lower VINs, so we will see soon enough if non-premium matters, and more importantly what non-premium even means.
umeshunni
Member
non-premium with 22xx VIN here. My car is apparently 'built' but in QC and I've been told to expect at mid-April delivery.
Shopi01
Member
Just got VIN!!! Yay!
90D pearl white 7 seat, 22" black onyx wheels, all options except fidelity sound and cold weather! VIN 055XX
90D pearl white 7 seat, 22" black onyx wheels, all options except fidelity sound and cold weather! VIN 055XX
K-MTG
Sunshade Captain of TMC
Colby Boles
Member
Non-premium P90DL here with 24xx VIN ordered back on 12/29. Have been told February, then March, then "early April", now "April". Non-premium, or at least the cloth seats has almost definitely held back my order. I could see a point down the road when this would have little impact though.
jsollender
Member
Darryl
ModelXTracker.com Co-Adm
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