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Tracking Model Y orders

Poncherelly

Member
Jun 12, 2019
611
93
Ottawa
My reservation was changed with new wheels, so new selections need to be added.
Ya mind also. They changed mine to the induction wheels (which I'm super happy about) with no change to my order price listed. Fingers crossed that doesn't change and I get my delivery confirmation soon :).
 

EV forever

Member
Supporting Member
Apr 23, 2016
833
6,362
Irvine, CA
Can we keep the tracker pinned on top of the forum page?

Also, 18 inch aerowheels are no longer available, neither is RWD long range. My order is now changed to AWD Long Range and 19" wheels
 

AdVanced

Member
Jan 24, 2020
149
124
Columbus
So, according to this, there are less than 200 model Y orders? This is not going to go well for Tesla. On the upside, I should get my car in March. ;-)
It was at about 150 a week ago and then It got resurfaced. I posted it over on Reddit to try to get more numbers. The thing that concerns me is that they only got a carb cert for the performance model and not the AWD. I'm still hopeful for March/April : D
 

Mufasa

Member
Jan 23, 2020
66
45
Sag Harbor
I'm a indecisive person - can't decide on the color and Rims. I have changed the order 10 times since placing my order in early Jan. Will it affect my place in line?
 

Aarons12

Enjoying my Pearl White LR AWD with inductions
Jan 24, 2020
391
182
long island, NY
207 orders has to be way too low. How can we better tell how many actual orders there are?
for one thing, i would imagine that tesla sales are now expanding to a crowd that is a bit less techy, and not prone to joining forums. their loss. i'm old but still just techy enough to be drooling while i wait and hungry for every bit of info
 

AdVanced

Member
Jan 24, 2020
149
124
Columbus
207 orders has to be way too low. How can we better tell how many actual orders there are?
Well, I did some math to *attempt* estimating based on response interest. Treating it as a sample size, we can compare to the Model 3 tracking sheet. *Disclaimer: I only did approximates*
- The Model 3 tracking sheet documented 5,600 Model 3 orders between Q2 2018 and now. Tesla delivered approximately 455,000 Model three vehicles according to their press releases. 5600/455000 = 1.2% of orders

*It's good and bad that this didn't include the influx of original pre-orders but the Model 3 was an explosion. I'm under the impression that the Y did not get as much attention as the 3 since they are very similar, although many are trading up their 3 for a Y. Still something to consider. The Model 3 had around 325,000 pre-orders at launch (cheaper product and only $100 to pre-order instead of $2500 initially)

Edit: The sheet indicates configuration dates starting in March 2018. I do not recall if you could configure the model 3 before that time and am not sure how many on the sheet would have been pre-orders.

- taking the same 1.2% sample size and applying that to the 206 tracked orders = approximately 16,000. Granted, that doesn't factor that there would definitely be an initial influx for preorders and perhaps not many people are aware of the survey although i've posted it to Reddit too. That being said, i'd probably guess around double that at 32,000 pre-orders. The 100,000 number going around was from someones chat with a Tesla CR. I'd find it unlikely that the front line staff would know.

This could also be completely off, is just speculation, and at the end of the day ...... I really want my new car ; ;

Also - Approximate Model 3 delivery numbers since 2018 if anyone is interested:
2018 - 137,000 (Q2-4)
Q1 - 9,000
Q2 - 18,000
Q3 - 56,000
Q4 - 63,000
Total: 146,000

2019 (Q1-4)
Q1 - 50,000
Q2 - 78,000
Q3 - 97,000
Q4 - 93,000
Total: 318,000
 
Last edited:

Ghanziang

Member
Oct 27, 2017
169
155
Evergreen, CO
I don't think it is a line. I think it is more of a series of sets, where a set is defined by region, another by color, another by trim. When the correct intersection of the sets occurs such that Tesla can deliver the single largest amount with the highest rate of success and profit, then you will get your car. So if you put yourself in the correct set, then you will get your car earlier. My theory on the model 3 initial ramp is they had so many options, that they had to many sets, and the intersections were not large enough. Later they reduced that, for instance premium package was included, RWD was removed, etc. With the Model Y, they started with many fewer sets. So now, only the computer knows the right set, and which set will be produced first.
 

astrothad

Almost classmate with Elon member
Mar 23, 2015
99
87
Long Beach, CA
Edit: The sheet indicates configuration dates starting in March 2018. I do not recall if you could configure the model 3 before that time and am not sure how many on the sheet would have been pre-orders.

Most people who could configure (and who took delivery of) their 3 before March 2018 already owned a Tesla. February/March 2018 configurations would have been when first time owners (like me) started getting invitations. I configured at the end of March 2018 and took delivery during the 2nd week of April.

Ye gods, the incessant checking of these forums leading up to that. Chances that we'll get a Y are very good, but I won't be jumping in as soon as possible this time around. It's easier to wait when you finally get a chance to scratch that itch.
 
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Poncherelly

Member
Jun 12, 2019
611
93
Ottawa
I'm a indecisive person - can't decide on the color and Rims. I have changed the order 10 times since placing my order in early Jan. Will it affect my place in line?
The only issue with making changes is if you pre ordered the price was X but if that price changed since that date and you make changes, I believe the new price will take effect. For example, if you had old style upgraded silver rims and were auto upgraded to the new black ones and you changed the color from say black to grey, you might now see the full price of the upgraded rims.

All this may not matter of course if the pre order price isn't honored.
 

ndstreet

Member
Feb 6, 2020
7
1
new jersey
Well, I did some math to *attempt* estimating based on response interest. Treating it as a sample size, we can compare to the Model 3 tracking sheet. *Disclaimer: I only did approximates*
- The Model 3 tracking sheet documented 5,600 Model 3 orders between Q2 2018 and now. Tesla delivered approximately 455,000 Model three vehicles according to their press releases. 5600/455000 = 1.2% of orders

*It's good and bad that this didn't include the influx of original pre-orders but the Model 3 was an explosion. I'm under the impression that the Y did not get as much attention as the 3 since they are very similar, although many are trading up their 3 for a Y. Still something to consider. The Model 3 had around 325,000 pre-orders at launch (cheaper product and only $100 to pre-order instead of $2500 initially)

Edit: The sheet indicates configuration dates starting in March 2018. I do not recall if you could configure the model 3 before that time and am not sure how many on the sheet would have been pre-orders.

- taking the same 1.2% sample size and applying that to the 206 tracked orders = approximately 16,000. Granted, that doesn't factor that there would definitely be an initial influx for preorders and perhaps not many people are aware of the survey although i've posted it to Reddit too. That being said, i'd probably guess around double that at 32,000 pre-orders. The 100,000 number going around was from someones chat with a Tesla CR. I'd find it unlikely that the front line staff would know.

This could also be completely off, is just speculation, and at the end of the day ...... I really want my new car ; ;

Also - Approximate Model 3 delivery numbers since 2018 if anyone is interested:
2018 - 137,000 (Q2-4)
Q1 - 9,000
Q2 - 18,000
Q3 - 56,000
Q4 - 63,000
Total: 146,000

2019 (Q1-4)
Q1 - 50,000
Q2 - 78,000
Q3 - 97,000
Q4 - 93,000
Total: 318,000

Awesome analysis. Wish I had read this before I posted the following on another thread.

If I'm reading a couple of articles right, the Model 3 started dribbling out in Fall 2017, dropping to a 6 month wait by Fall 2018 and a 2 week wait by Spring 2019. Now it seems to be back up to 6-9 weeks. I'm assuming that there was more demand and deposits for the 3 than there will be for the Y (which could be wrong), and that they will gear up production run rate faster for the Y than they did the 3 (which is probably right and should offset even if there is more demand). So I'm thinking if they start dribbling out the Y in late March, by 9 months later, they should have burned through the deposits and be taking new orders fairly quickly?

Thinking about some numbers, I've seen info that said 400k Model 3 deposits of which a fair portion cancel or don't follow through. Assuming Y is about 50-75% of 3 deposits and about 20% bail on their place in line, and they start cranking out in anything close to the 500k they said in earnings call by end of year, a fair portion of that 500k should be Ys, so if they are making 125k total cars per quarter, maybe 40k of them going forward are Ys? With maybe 100k Ys made by year end as they ramp up? So by year end, they should be burning through end of deposits and start taking orders for 2021 early delivery?

In thinking through your numbers now, after reading your numbers above, it makes me more hopeful that they can burn through the Y pre orders by end of year. I'm betting they can get close to 3 production numbers for the Y this year. And if demand is below 3, makes me feel better. Would appreciate your thoughts.
 
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Aarons12

Enjoying my Pearl White LR AWD with inductions
Jan 24, 2020
391
182
long island, NY
the one thing that just dawned on me about the analysis above is the 'dribbling out' part. one of the announcements made last week is that the y is already in production and they are building inventory to start the deliveries. i have a feeling it depends a lot on what was ordered as far as colors, wheels, etc. they did say performance versions first, so i know i'm NOT on that list. other than that they changed my wheels twice but i'm thinking that's also at least in part about moving some units.
 

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