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Tracking short interest

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Short interest as of 7/31/13 (settled date) was published today (Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com). As TSLAopt has noted it takes 3 business days to settle, so the 7/31/13 settled date is reflective of short interest as the end of trading on 7/26/13 (closing share price: $129.39).

As of 7/26/13, 25.7% of the float was short (19.78m of 76.93m shares in float). This was an increase from 7/10/13 (7/15 settle date, closing share price: $122.27), when 24% of the float was short (18.49m of 76.93m shares in float).

Settlement DateShort InterestAvg Daily Share VolumeDays To Cover
7/31/201319,783,86612,231,9211.617396
7/15/201318,491,0298,684,6472.129163
6/28/201319,815,6868,152,7642.430548
6/14/201319,929,11910,040,7771.984818
5/31/201318,584,61515,751,2501.179882
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We got our increase. Much higher than both of us had guessed (16-17m shares).

The shorts could have covered pre Q2 ER, between July 29 and August 7. But highly unlikely a large % of them did. So, I'd expect/guess short interest to still be quite high right now.


Yep, I imagine that the short squeeze will happen slowly over this quarter or next once the stock stabilizes for a while and the shorts slowly come to the conclusion that this is going to be valued as a successful disruptor like AMZN or NFLX...wouldn't be surprised if the price hits 250 by the time short interest comes down below 10mm shares to a more normal level.
 
The shorts could have covered pre Q2 ER, between July 29 and August 7. But highly unlikely a large % of them did. So, I'd expect/guess short interest to still be quite high right now.

I don't think they covered. If anything they took on additional shares, because everyone except for us thought it was going to be a bad report. I think that short interest grew higher the two days immediately prior to earnings.

I also think that the shorts tried everything they could on Friday to get the stock going down and that they failed. I feel like this stock still has to have a follow-up day or two after such a good report. Monday might be that day. Shorts are going to have to cut their losses eventually and now it is starting to get very expensive for them.
 
next week should be interesting. the way stock trading last 4 5 days might actually encourage more shorting. monday went up probably from car price increase. tue and wed were bad. earning helped wed but selling off into close, and today again selling off into close. it doesnt look like short covering to me. unless price start moving up steadly, short might just hold out and try to hold under 160 to encourage some more profit taking.
 
... wouldn't be surprised if the price hits 250 by the time short interest comes down below 10mm shares to a more normal level.

I had a similar thought this evening while on my daily walk. I wonder how long it'll take to get down short interest to 5-10mm shares. The "short TSLA" movement is showing more resilience than I expected. That's good news as this builds more eventual upward price pressure as the inevitable covering needs to take place sooner or later.
 
I had a similar thought this evening while on my daily walk. I wonder how long it'll take to get down short interest to 5-10mm shares. The "short TSLA" movement is showing more resilience than I expected. That's good news as this builds more eventual upward price pressure as the inevitable covering needs to take place sooner or later.

yeah, and I may be wishful but I'm thinking its quite possible that some of these smarter hedge fund shorts will eventually think "if you can't beat them then join them" and completely reversing their positions from covering their shorts to then also going long to try and accelerate a short squeeze.
 
I don't think they covered. If anything they took on additional shares, because everyone except for us thought it was going to be a bad report. I think that short interest grew higher the two days immediately prior to earnings.

I also think that the shorts tried everything they could on Friday to get the stock going down and that they failed. I feel like this stock still has to have a follow-up day or two after such a good report. Monday might be that day. Shorts are going to have to cut their losses eventually and now it is starting to get very expensive for them.
Not sure they will. I believe they will not admit and only believe they picked the wrong level to short at. I believe there is also irrational hate directed toward company. I don't care since they only keep driving stock up but it is instructional to watch
 
The analyst days coming up this week give Tesla the opportunity to goose the stock. You better believe that this year all the news outlets will be paying very close attention. I'm sure we'll be seeing some positive headlines. Hopefully there will be some really good nugget that slips out and sends the shorts running for the hills.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 4
 
The analyst days coming up this week give Tesla the opportunity to goose the stock. You better believe that this year all the news outlets will be paying very close attention. I'm sure we'll be seeing some positive headlines. Hopefully there will be some really good nugget that slips out and sends the shorts running for the hills.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 4

I must have missed the announcement, but when is the analyst day?
 
The analyst days coming up this week give Tesla the opportunity to goose the stock. You better believe that this year all the news outlets will be paying very close attention. I'm sure we'll be seeing some positive headlines. Hopefully there will be some really good nugget that slips out and sends the shorts running for the hills.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 4

Do you know what analyst days are happening this week?

I know that there is a JP Morgan Auto Conference this Tuesday and Wednesday and that the Investor Relations VP from Tesla will be speaking at 4pm EST on Tuesday.

Is Tesla going to hold a separate analyst day event this week? Are there any other events scheduled for this week? Is Elon speaking in any of them (outside of Hyperloop)?
 
yeah, and I may be wishful but I'm thinking its quite possible that some of these smarter hedge fund shorts will eventually think "if you can't beat them then join them" and completely reversing their positions from covering their shorts to then also going long to try and accelerate a short squeeze.

Short interest as of end of day today will all be settled trades on Aug 15 which is the date of the next NASDQ short interest report released after the close on Aug 26th.
I will be very interested in this data when it comes out as it will show us how much of this drop is from an increase in short positions vs. weak longs selling out. I am hoping it will show a very high increase in shares held short vs. the last report.
 
What i am thinking is today a lot of hot money probably exited. Some hot money got in to play the widely anticipated squeeze probably sold out today. Short probably piled in some but i doubt it would be a lot. If we gap down tomorrow, more hot money will exit causing short term pain. We need to hold today low of 142.
 
Short interest as of 8/15/13 (settled date) was published today (Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com). As TSLAopt has noted it takes 3 business days to settle, so the 8/15/13 settled date is reflective of short interest as the end of trading on 8/12/13.

As of 8/12/13, 26.3% of the float was short (20.26m out of 79.63m shares). This is 0.6% higher than the previous reported short interest amount.

To give some context on 8/12/13 the closing share price was $147.38. This was the 3rd day after Q2 ER and the stock price had dropped below $150 eventually on its way down to $135 three days later.

Settlement DateShort InterestAvg Daily Share VolumeDays To Cover
8/15/201320,266,32412,148,8441.668169
7/31/201319,783,86612,231,9211.617396
7/15/201318,491,0298,684,6472.129163
6/28/201319,815,6868,152,7642.430548
6/14/201319,929,11910,040,7771.984818
5/31/201318,584,61515,751,2501.179882
 
Short interest as of 8/30/13 (settled date) was published today (Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com). Since it takes 3 business days to settle, the 8/30/13 settled date is reflective of short interest as the end of trading on 8/27/13.

So as of 8/27/13, 27% of the float was short (21.56 out of 79.68m shares). This is 0.7% higher than the previous reported short interest amount.

To give some context on 8/27/13 the closing share price was $167.01. That was the day after TSLA hit 173.00 (new ATH at that time) and then had its dramatic drop dropped to $160.25 before recovering a bit to close the day.

Settlement DateShort InterestAvg Daily Share VolumeDays To Cover
8/30/201321,557,85311,893,3361.812599
8/15/201320,266,32412,148,8441.668169
7/31/201319,783,86612,231,9211.617396
7/15/201318,491,0298,684,6472.129163
6/28/201319,815,6868,152,7642.430548
6/14/201319,929,11910,040,7771.984818
 
The cost to short was 1.25% today at fidelity. For the record, during the heyday of tesla's short squeeze fidelity was charging about 45% while luvb2 was finding 85% at his brokerage. Thus fidelity may understate the average market price.

DaveT do you think that the pop to 173 drew in more shorts? Or do you think it decreased shorts? What point were you trying to make?
 
The cost to short was 1.25% today at fidelity. For the record, during the heyday of tesla's short squeeze fidelity was charging about 45% while luvb2 was finding 85% at his brokerage. Thus fidelity may understate the average market price.

DaveT do you think that the pop to 173 drew in more shorts? Or do you think it decreased shorts? What point were you trying to make?

I think the pop to 173 and sudden drop likely drew in a lot of shorts on 8/26/13. But I also think the quick rise from 135 to 160 before also drew in more shorts. But it balances because as TSLA rises, some shorts are forced to cover and they might decrease their short positions or exit. But then new shorts come in thinking TSLA is overvalued at new highs. But overall, we had a net increase in shorts. That goes to show overall there were more shorts entering than exiting. And I take this as good news because eventually these shorts will have to cover.
 
I think the pop to 173 and sudden drop likely drew in a lot of shorts on 8/26/13. But I also think the quick rise from 135 to 160 before also drew in more shorts. But it balances because as TSLA rises, some shorts are forced to cover and they might decrease their short positions or exit. But then new shorts come in thinking TSLA is overvalued at new highs. But overall, we had a net increase in shorts. That goes to show overall there were more shorts entering than exiting. And I take this as good news because eventually these shorts will have to cover.

I agree that this is good news Dave.

Any guesses to what the total short interest was at the end of yesterday's trading day? That figure will be released in a couple weeks.
For the record, I will guess 23.5mm shares due to all the negative press on the stock price attracting new shorts (ie. NYU professor last week for example).
 
I agree that this is good news Dave.

Any guesses to what the total short interest was at the end of yesterday's trading day? That figure will be released in a couple weeks.
For the record, I will guess 23.5mm shares due to all the negative press on the stock price attracting new shorts (ie. NYU professor last week for example).

I'll guess 22.2mm shares. Sentiment is down on the stock of late but some shorts are bound to cover and exit. But in the balance, I see it rising.
 
Its interesting to see the Short Share amount continue to rise again.
What kind of catalyst do you think its going to take to get another Pop? Q3 earnings with other news or a massive Q3 beat.
With the stock continuing to flutter around the 160-170 range the past two weeks, as well as the small amount of shares traded today, i can see more shorts getting in expecting that this is the peak. We just have to hope they are wrong and we can stay up here.
 
Its interesting to see the Short Share amount continue to rise again.
What kind of catalyst do you think its going to take to get another Pop? Q3 earnings with other news or a massive Q3 beat.
With the stock continuing to flutter around the 160-170 range the past two weeks, as well as the small amount of shares traded today, i can see more shorts getting in expecting that this is the peak. We just have to hope they are wrong and we can stay up here.

i think there will be a fluctuation of shorts between 15mm and 25mm shares for a long time to come, perhaps until GEN III comes out and producing/selling hundreds of thousands of those right off the bat becomes evident to everyone, shorts included.