I am guessing they have finally admitted that the merger is highly likely to happen and are shorting TSLA instead of SCTY. Which is sane behavior, since they're paying a *lot* less in interest to short TSLA than to short SCTY. What's surprising is how long it took them to start doing this. I suppose there are still some SCTY shorts who are betting the deal will fail.
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....I actually would be surprised. The divergence between SCTY and TSLA lending rates has been bizarre considering the very-likely merger. I would expect the TSLA lending rate to drop to 7% and then I'd expect the two rates to track each other.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Fidelity is now paying 7% lending rate, down from 8%, on TSLA. I believe that happened yesterday (definitely before today).
Chickenlittle
Banned
You get 3 month trading restriction. All trades need to finish settlement before buying more securities
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Pretty much the same thing they were thinking in early 2013 before the stock went up 7-8X: Elon and Tesla won't deliver on the Model [substitute 3 for S].
I predict a similar outcome all the way around.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Fidelity paying 6.75% today for TSLA (down from 7.0% previously).
In another thread, a couple of folks reported their lent out shares being returned to them today at both Schwab and Fidlity.
In another thread, a couple of folks reported their lent out shares being returned to them today at both Schwab and Fidlity.
Incredulocious
LEAF → RAV4EV → Model 3 → Model Y
Yeah, I reported that mine were but by end of day they were loaned back out at Fidelity. Just in time for the weekend!
Schwab returned both my SCTY and my TSLA and hasn't asked for them back.
Rather than asking them to relend or opening an account with another broker right now, I think I will forego the interest for the month and keep the shares unlent until the voting. After the voting I'll look again.
It's *interesting* that this is happening without an apparent drop in short interest. Where are the shorts getting their stock from now?
Rather than asking them to relend or opening an account with another broker right now, I think I will forego the interest for the month and keep the shares unlent until the voting. After the voting I'll look again.
It's *interesting* that this is happening without an apparent drop in short interest. Where are the shorts getting their stock from now?
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
TSLA short interest has fallen by about half a million:
Code:
08-16-2016 26,362,627
07-15-2016 26,963,483
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest#ixzz4IYG3UdsBadiggs
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I reported that mine were but by end of day they were loaned back out at Fidelity. Just in time for the weekend!
Yay for weekend loans! They're my new fave
Folks I think it was this thread that I first read about the recall short squeeze hypothesis, if not sorry if I'm mucking this thread up. I've been mulling it and as I see it the only reason it won't happen at this point is if the merger doesn't go through, or most of the short positions cover. The merger seems highly likely at this point. Looking at short levels, even in all time high type times, short levels have still remained pretty high for several years now. My guess is that there is a base short position of people that thought or maybe still think that TSLA/SCTY was going to fail, that have been in it for a long time now, and then there are the "smart" shorts that have been in and out over the the years. My guess is that there are a lot less "smart" shorts than not, and those are the ones that have been covering lately. But I don't know that for sure, maybe there's more smart shorts than long term shorts and they'll just keep covering? Anybody know how to check that? Thoughts?
I think the recalled shares will be matched with enough shorts *slowly* closing their positions to avoid a serious short-covering rally. But we won't find out one way or another until after the go-shop period ends.
I expect the stock prices to keep trading on the lower side due to uncertainty until after the vote. After the vote, the stock may even go down further if shorts decide to pile back in. I'm not expecting much out of 3Q numbers. I am expecting relatively good 4Q, 1Q, and 2Q numbers, but this may not affect Wall Street's reaction at all. In 3Q 2017, however, Wall Street will probably be shocked that Model 3 is approximately on schedule. And in 3Q or 4Q 2017 the Silevo factory will start producing. So that's the timeframe I'm looking at: I'm not good at the short-term (who is?) but I expect that a wave of optimism will hit the stock in the latter half of 2017.
I expect the stock prices to keep trading on the lower side due to uncertainty until after the vote. After the vote, the stock may even go down further if shorts decide to pile back in. I'm not expecting much out of 3Q numbers. I am expecting relatively good 4Q, 1Q, and 2Q numbers, but this may not affect Wall Street's reaction at all. In 3Q 2017, however, Wall Street will probably be shocked that Model 3 is approximately on schedule. And in 3Q or 4Q 2017 the Silevo factory will start producing. So that's the timeframe I'm looking at: I'm not good at the short-term (who is?) but I expect that a wave of optimism will hit the stock in the latter half of 2017.
Yeah I was thinking about the same until I started looking at the short levels. As a % of float Tesla's short interest hasn't dipped below 20% since at least before 2012, and it's currently around 30%. I'm guessing that 20% is long shorts that opened a position a long time ago and are still waiting for Tesla to crash. But who knows, time will tell I guess. If this sort of thing does happen it looks like it will be more pronounced with SCTY.
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