Trading Fans not into the Kool-Aid

[Stinger63]

So, just curious, does pretending to be a reality-based investor mean you have made millions from your wisdom?

I've actually done quite well with TSLA over the last couple of years although I've missed out on a couple instances of wild fervor, once when it hit 900 early this year and now as the stock hit 1094. They say, "let your winners ride". Maybe next time.
I don't see how trading skills and observations about Musk and the company's choices are related. Maybe your hold the missing link.
While I'm here, I want to congratulate Tesla for there #1 brand sales in Europe. They are leading the EV revolution and now they are leading car sales. Great results and a deserving stock price. I admit I didn't see it, expecting instead back in May a peak at 850 when it did, but not that! Impressive.
I will now have to wait for the next support test; I will be ready.

 

[StealthP3D]

No, it means when reality comes, several of us are ready to get out and realize our gains at the first signs while lots of others are going to ride the elevator to the basement and take theirs at a loss. It also means we openly admit Tesla's share price has absolutely nothing at all to do with reality.

So, you are TSLA investors who haven't become millionaires?

 

[DrDabbles]

So, you are TSLA investors who haven't become millionaires?

...what? I can't make sense of that sentence. But if you're asking how much money I have, I'm not going to talk about that on Twitter. I purchased TSLA in 2016, and I still hold TSLA today. I have other investments worth much more.

 

[StealthP3D]

No, I wasn't asking how much money you have. I was just wondering if "not drinking the Tesla Kool-aid" is even more profitable than those of us who went all in and have let it ride. I guess if you had impeccable timing (and were trading in a tax free account) it's possible but very unlikely for trading in/out of Tesla based on valuation to have been more profitable than simply trusting the company to outperform. Just wondering if that was the case. Many of us have increased our initial investment by 20X to more than 200X simply by buying and holding. That means an initial $50K investment could be worth up to $13 million dollars without lifting a finger.

I wasn't so brave as to invest as soon as Tesla went public so the chairs I bought in 2019 have only appreciated a hair over 30X. Fortunately, I had a lot of faith in Elon Musk and Co. so I put a lot in.

 

[Stinger63]

Congrats! Hindsight is 100%. If you'd bought Tsla in early January 2021 and sold on Q3 day, you would have lost $50/share and swore never to buy Tsla again. I have friends who also bought early and became millionaires along the way. Yes, Tsla has done exceedingly well and I sure wished I'd bought that early as well. I jumped in early 2020 and have been very happy with my returns, except I failed to capitalize on 2 steep price rises that could have made me a millionaire too.
Doesn't matter though. Trading or investing are one thing, the car company and what it does to address its shortcomings are another. The better they resolve, the more demand they will have and the higher the stock price will go.

 

[StealthP3D]

Congrats! Hindsight is 100%. If you'd bought Tsla in early January 2021 and sold on Q3 day, you would have lost $50/share and swore never to buy Tsla again. I have friends who also bought early and became millionaires along the way. Yes, Tsla has done exceedingly well and I sure wished I'd bought that early as well. I jumped in early 2020 and have been very happy with my returns, except I failed to capitalize on 2 steep price rises that could have made me a millionaire too.
Doesn't matter though. Trading or investing are one thing, the car company and what it does to address its shortcomings are another. The better they resolve, the more demand they will have and the higher the stock price will go.

Shortcomings? Tesla doesn't want or need more demand, they have more than they can handle. They need more production which is where they are focusing their energy, along with lowering the cost of production so they can offer consumers more value, even while increasing profits as the increase production. Short-sighted people have been focusing on alleged Tesla short-comings for many years now. those who put their money where their mouth was learned just how wrong they were in a very painful way.

It's easy for people to sit on a couch and criticize the most efficient and innovative new manufacturer who is bringing cars that delight to the people at affordable prices, so affordable that there is often wait times exceeding a month or three (and without making their customers pay for advertising). But the people doing the real work at Tesla are eating into demand for legacy auto products because they are doing it better, not worse, than typical car companies. So I think Tesla criticism is misplaced. If you want to be critical, be critical of those who are doing an even worse job, not the best of the bunch! Look at the crap put out by Ford, GMC, VW and BMW and tell me you should be criticizing Tesla above all the rest!

True, no company is perfect but why criticize the best of the bunch?

 

[FirstInTown]

Shortcomings? Tesla doesn't want or need more demand, they have more than they can handle. They need more production which is where they are focusing their energy, along with lowering the cost of production so they can offer consumers more value, even while increasing profits as the increase production. Short-sighted people have been focusing on alleged Tesla short-comings for many years now. those who put their money where their mouth was learned just how wrong they were in a very painful way.

It's easy for people to sit on a couch and criticize the most efficient and innovative new manufacturer who is bringing cars that delight to the people at affordable prices, so affordable that there is often wait times exceeding a month or three (and without making their customers pay for advertising). But the people doing the real work at Tesla are eating into demand for legacy auto products because they are doing it better, not worse, than typical car companies. So I think Tesla criticism is misplaced. If you want to be critical, be critical of those who are doing an even worse job, not the best of the bunch! Look at the crap put out by Ford, GMC, VW and BMW and tell me you should be criticizing Tesla above all the rest!

True, no company is perfect but why criticize the best of the bunch?

I've said it before and owning a 2020 X has reinforced it for me. Tesla is the best ELECTRIC CAR right now. No question. But not the best CAR.

I hope them the best, as electric has to be the future, but they need to learn where the weak spots are and respose to them, or normal people like me will try once and once other cars are better ELECTRIC CARS than currently are (he the best, but close enough) , we will move on, as there are better CARS.

 

[DrDabbles]

No, I wasn't asking how much money you have. I was just wondering if "not drinking the Tesla Kool-aid" is even more profitable than those of us who went all in and have let it ride. I guess if you had impeccable timing (and were trading in a tax free account) it's possible but very unlikely for trading in/out of Tesla based on valuation to have been more profitable than simply trusting the company to outperform. Just wondering if that was the case. Many of us have increased our initial investment by 20X to more than 200X simply by buying and holding. That means an initial $50K investment could be worth up to $13 million dollars without lifting a finger.

I wasn't so brave as to invest as soon as Tesla went public so the chairs I bought in 2019 have only appreciated a hair over 30X. Fortunately, I had a lot of faith in Elon Musk and Co. so I put a lot in.

The people making extreme gains on TSLA are options traders, FYI. Not people holding shares directly.

 

[StealthP3D]

The people making extreme gains on TSLA are options traders, FYI. Not people holding shares directly.

People who buy and hold Tesla have made a killing. Those who invested only $17,000 at the IPO 11 years ago and didn't sell any, now have shares worth $5,860,000! The shares I bought in June 2019, a bit over two years ago, have increased 31.8 times their original value. That means for every $50K I invested, they are now worth $1.59 million.

I also bought some options that appreciated well over 100X. But the thing about options like this is they are highly speculative bets with a high chance of complete loss. So rational people tend to make smaller bets than buying the shares directly. The result is that I have made a lot more money simply buying and holding TSLA than I have with options.

 

[DrDabbles]

People who buy and hold Tesla have made a killing.

Sure. And the people trading options have done even better.

Those who invested only $17,000 at the IPO 11 years ago and didn't sell any, now have shares worth $5,860,000!

Great. The dude from EVTV made more than that on a single split options strategy, and the cost to him was significantly lower.

The shares I bought in June 2019, a bit over two years ago, have increased 31.8 times their original value.

Fantastic. My shares from 2016 have appreciated even more than that. Options traders have made substantially more.

 

[StealthP3D]

Sure. And the people trading options have done even better.



Great. The dude from EVTV made more than that on a single split options strategy, and the cost to him was significantly lower.



Fantastic. My shares from 2016 have appreciated even more than that. Options traders have made substantially more.

All options traders have winners and losers, I'm surprised you need to be told this. That means you can't look at one trade in isolation - the total return is the average profit/loss of all purchases. Many Tesla options traders have actually lost money or quit trading when they saw their buy and hold shares outperformed their trading account. Sure, some have hit it big but some have lost most of what they started with. On the whole it has been quite profitable but, of course, it depends upon the individual investors decision and timing.

Every buy and hold TSLA investor has been profitable, every single one, most of us very profitable and some of us to the tune of tens of millions of dollars starting with rather modest amounts. I'm confident that if you average out the performance of all the options players, their performance is lower than the long-term buy/hold TSLA investors. In fact this could be proven because options trades always have a buyer and seller and they all balance out in the end (once you back out the delta of the share price). If you pick the wrong side of the trade you lose.

 

[DrDabbles]

All options traders have winners and losers, I'm surprised you need to be told this.

You only assume I need to be told this. I don't.

Every buy and hold TSLA investor has been profitable, every single one

There have been plenty people that bought at a high, saw a dip and sold at a loss. Dumb people abound. And as I've said elsewhere plenty times, my investing power is that I have no religious affiliation with Tesla so I'm willing to get out of my shares at the first sign of reality setting in.

 

[StealthP3D]

You only assume I need to be told this. I don't.



There have been plenty people that bought at a high, saw a dip and sold at a loss. Dumb people abound. And as I've said elsewhere plenty times, my investing power is that I have no religious affiliation with Tesla so I'm willing to get out of my shares at the first sign of reality setting in.

Yes, most traders are "dumb" or not as smart as they think they are. That's why most people holding multiple millions of dollars worth of TSLA are buy and hold investors, not traders. It doesn't take a large number of bad trades to bring your returns way down. Or the tax hit.

Some people need to live many years before they figure this out. I understood it early which is why I retired in my 30's and have been living off my investments (which continue to grow) for well over 20 years. Buy and hold. Time in the market beats trying to time the market. Never sell a great company early or you will leave millions on the table. Sure, I've made close to a million dollars with TSLA call options but taxes knocked that down significantly. My long-term gains, from simply holding the stock for three years, makes those profits look like nothing. And I feel like I took less risk with my buy and hold investments.

A large part of superior returns is learning how to not take losses and to not get nervous with your unrealized gains. Let them ride unless the company doesn't have a bright future.

 

[DrDabbles]

Yes, most traders are "dumb" or not as smart as they think they are. That's why most people holding multiple millions of dollars worth of TSLA are buy and hold investors, not traders. It doesn't take a large number of bad trades to bring your returns way down. Or the tax hit.

Some people need to live many years before they figure this out. I understood it early which is why I retired in my 30's and have been living off my investments (which continue to grow) for well over 20 years. Buy and hold. Time in the market beats trying to time the market. Never sell a great company early or you will leave millions on the table. Sure, I've made close to a million dollars with TSLA call options but taxes knocked that down significantly. My long-term gains, from simply holding the stock for three years, makes those profits look like nothing. And I feel like I took less risk with my buy and hold investments.

A large part of superior returns is learning how to not take losses and to not get nervous with your unrealized gains. Let them ride unless the company doesn't have a bright future.

Again, you're assuming I need this lesson. I don't.

 

[Stinger63]

Well, well, Mr Musk has decided to pull a new Twitter trick to lower the share price. It worked temporarily enough for him to sell and save a bit on his tax bill. No worries, share price will go back up, I don't doubt it.

Could he do that again though? I was hoping to load up at 950 and it never dropped that low, thanks!

 

[StealthP3D]

Well, well, Mr Musk has decided to pull a new Twitter trick to lower the share price. It worked temporarily enough for him to sell and save a bit on his tax bill. No worries, share price will go back up, I don't doubt it.

Could he do that again though? I was hoping to load up at 950 and it never dropped that low, thanks!

Hopefully I don't need to point out how what you are saying doesn't make any sense on the face of it and also goes directly against what we have learned from Musk's SEC filings about which shares he has sold.