@Stinger63 , regarding your opening post: my issues with Musk are mainly his sometimes doubtful Tweets, doubtful by being either too impulsive ("funding secured") or too war-mongering (Thai cave diver incident).
You dispell these as forgiven, I don't really. Of course the reality is that I have to accept the flaws (which are few) with the strengths (which are many).
That said, the rest of your argument is quite thin and based on either lack of doing enough homework on Tesla, or on ill-intent. That is why some choose to dispel you as a short seller.
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, since I agree TMC can sometimes feel like an echo chamber where all is forgiven due to Musk's holy status.
However, to adress some of your points:
- battery day presented amazing tech, just like Autonomy day. That the market doesn't realize this and that the stock price has not soared after these tech reveals is not Tesla's/Elon's fault, but the market's. Also it does not indicate whatsoever the true value of battery day.
- the presentation style of battery day (as you say "wingin' it") is how Tesla presents stuff. We all know this and there is no real need for change in this regard. Why do they present like this? Because 1) Tesla/Elon does not want to waste too much time on just PR. The resultst will speak for themselves. 2) This approach is (or at least seems to be) more truthful and honest than streamlined presentations.
If you're not on board with Tesla's presentation style, you might wanna invest in another stock. It won't change.
- you seem to have concerns regarding PR. Short rebuttal: as long as Tesla sells every vehicle they produce, there is no need for PR. Those "horror stories" you seem to be afraid of are the minority and won't impact future growth much. I hear way more "Tesla is great" stories.
- you state the competition is here. There are other BEV's on the market, yes, but again: as long as Tesla sells every vehicle they make, there is no issue. None.
- I'll play along: what if Tesla by 2022 makes 2 million cars a year and CAN'T sell them all because of competitors? What is the differentiator?
Not the 2 seconds of acceleration, no. Value for money. Tesla has the lead in creating BEV's at low cost, therefore they can just drop margins and take out the competition that scares you so much at any time.
Just today I read an article (on a local website in dutch, won't share) that BMW will name their iNeXt the iX and it will be available in 2022 with "around" 600 km of range per charge. (=375 miles)
By that time, 400 miles on a Tesla costing less will be easy.
So to sum up: why will Tesla keep selling all vehicles produced? :
- low cost; (many reasons)
- best batteries, long cycle life;
- improving FSD;
- supercharge network (this is not 'nothing' as you imply. This is huge. Tesla does not have to give this up for any reason. If they do make it available for other brands you can be sure Tesla will charge X$ per charge/minute/Watt for Tesla vehicles and X +50% or more for non-Tesla vehicles. This way the lines kan be kept free for Tesla's and Tesla earns money off all customers.)
Regarding service, I don't know so I won't talk out of my a$$, but what I do know is that Tesla is ramping their service fleet which also is something unique. Done are the days of having to make an appointment to drive to a service garage once or twice a year just to have your brakes checked and whatnot. I really believe in the mobile service fleet.
Regarding lower insurance, this might turn out to be in favour of Tesla also but again: in this post I just mentioned things we know today.
I am open for further discussion with you if you answer me on this one question:
"Which competing BEV which is currently available generates more demand than Tesla vehicles?"
That's right.
