trading

[anthonyj]

Do not worry friends. Bear BBQ soon. Save this post.

 

[Boomer19]

Do not worry friends. Bear BBQ soon. Save this post.

i dunno, i just don’t see it. i mean we can get to 250...that’s perhaps BBQing some baby back ribs. but it’s not a whole hog smokin’

but it’s not like the ‘chance’ of record deliveries is a secret at this point... what makes them cover? they just think q3 is now the issue. then it’ll be q4, then it’ll be 2020 with no fed tax incentive blah blah

i think the biggest catalyst is, yes, to have a decent q2, and rest of year, perhaps a breakeven is a win, but also...where’s the big inst’s initiating a position to scare away the sellers?
we need some entity or persons to fill the millions of shares vacuum that trowe and fmr dumped

if we don’t get that, it could be a long way back to 300

if short interest of 40+ million is supporting 220 a share, does short interest churn back to 35 million shares put us to 240-250?
i know it’s not a 1:1 correlation of how ‘good’ the news is versus how ‘outstanding’ short int is, but it’s reasonable to estimate when short int is this high, how much acceleration can occur.
so we need a confluence of some really good news to wipe out ~ 20-25% portion of that high SI and get us back into the ballgame.

 

[bdy0627]

It's almost certainly not going to be a quick climb back up to $300+. IMO, meeting guidance on deliveries should support at least a modest climb to the lower end of the prior range, probably between $250 and $270. Then it's all about Q2 ER. If they can show significant cash flow positive, that should be another catalyst for a modest climb. Much of this long dump was hysteria building about Tesla being on the verge of bankruptcy, being distressed, needing to restructure, yadayada. Q2 should make it very clear that is not at all the case. That should bring back some growth investors and cause some short covering. I don't know what Q3 is going to be like. How severe will demand be temporarily hit with the tax credit drop off? Tesla should be able to manage pretty good numbers through it, but they sure didn't in Q1. Model S/X shouldn't be the same debacle as Q1, but there is still potential for lower deliveries in Q3 than Q2. That would support the bear's narrative even though it's pretty predictable.

 

[anthonyj]

i dunno, i just don’t see it. i mean we can get to 250...that’s perhaps BBQing some baby back ribs. but it’s not a whole hog smokin’

but it’s not like the ‘chance’ of record deliveries is a secret at this point... what makes them cover? they just think q3 is now the issue. then it’ll be q4, then it’ll be 2020 with no fed tax incentive blah blah

i think the biggest catalyst is, yes, to have a decent q2, and rest of year, perhaps a breakeven is a win, but also...where’s the big inst’s initiating a position to scare away the sellers?
we need some entity or persons to fill the millions of shares vacuum that trowe and fmr dumped

if we don’t get that, it could be a long way back to 300

if short interest of 40+ million is supporting 220 a share, does short interest churn back to 35 million shares put us to 240-250?
i know it’s not a 1:1 correlation of how ‘good’ the news is versus how ‘outstanding’ short int is, but it’s reasonable to estimate when short int is this high, how much acceleration can occur.
so we need a confluence of some really good news to wipe out ~ 20-25% portion of that high SI and get us back into the ballgame.

This stock trades the opposite of the retail crowd, every time. Wall Street preys on retail. This is the most shorted stock, and by far most shorted by noob mom and pop investors. Watch the bbq

 

[neroden]

It's almost certainly not going to be a quick climb back up to $300+.

Hmm. Actually, I suspect it will be very quick, I just think it won't start climbing until either (a) November, (b) next January, (c) next February, or (d) next May. When it starts climbing I expect it to be quite sudden and quick. TSLA is not known for smooth, slow moves.

(Those are the Q3, Q4, and Q1 quarterly reports and the Q4 and Q1 delivery reports. I don't expect anything much out of Q2, or out of Q3 deliveries.)

 

[bdy0627]

Well, we are getting towards the end of the week without a climb into the report. If we don't get a climb, I will be shocked (I've been shocked at TSLA price action before) if we go down on the deliveries report. Rationally speaking, deliveries must be poor to support the current stock price. Anything close to guidance or slightly under should result in a temporary negation of the bearish narrative. I don't see how at least pretty good delivery numbers (85k+) would support a negative reaction. Shorts will beg to differ. Plus, it will be a holiday trading market by Wednesday afternoon.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Opposite of the retail crowd is right. Look at this morning. By all accounts, based on the news (exec departure and Wedbush warning) this stock should have traded down. It started to premarket, but went up instead, and way up quick, breaking the downtrend (lower highs) of the last several days. So logically, then it seemed that the market rejected the negative morning news, which is fine and can happen. But then it came crashing right back down into that downtrend channel. Manipulation, if you ask me. The big guns, shorts or other traders, totally playing the retail crowd.

Right now, it looks like its going to continue down tomorrow, but anything can happen.

The problem with some of us here calling for 240/250 this week is that that would break the longterm downtrend channel from December highs. And that simply won't happen without major news (like delivery report). The top of that channel is right around today's high, maybe 230-240 tops.

We had a major run up from 180 to 230, so there is going to be some digestion and pull back. But I don't think that portends anything about the delivery report. It's just a technical move. But yeah, after yesterday's electrek report and the Wedbush warning, it is clear that the market has some doubts about the 90k number. Musk and Tesla are a show me story now, after the Q1 deliveries and profit "disappointments." The market is no longer taking leaks and email rumors on faith (good for a bump here and there, but that's it).

In a sense, the stock pullback is actually good. If we went up to 250 into the deliveries report, almost certain it would sell off, unless deliveries came in crazy high, like 100k. If we stay under 220 going into the report, and the report is about 90k, give or take, I think we'll move higher and finally break the longterm down channel (unless the S,X numbers are really low).

 

[Antares Nebula]

And as far as what the stock is going to do in the medium term, I'm really at a loss, ever since it broke support around 240-250. In addition to my long term stock holdings, I was playing medium/long term options/leaps with relative success, but all that went to crap after the 240 break. I took a pretty good hit. I don't mind getting back up and playing the options again, but I simply don't know what it will do. Like @neroden said, it may not start climbing till November. On the other hand, we can have a rapid V shape recovery (there are many near term catalysts like delivery report, pickup reveal, S,X refresh, etc.). Or we can even dip further (if Q2 earnings report is really bad, for example). 120-140 is not impossible! (though not likely IMO)

As a result, I'm sticking with mostly shares, with maybe an option here or there, if at all. Will definitely be adding on dips as I consider the stock very cheap at these prices. For those who can discern better and want to trade and with options, more power to you. But I have reached the limit of my mental gymnastics with this stock and the time I want to spend on it.

 

[defc0n]

Been busy/gone due to work. Hoping to buy a morning dip tomorrow. Maybe around 10:30-11:00. Depends upon what happens at the open. Curious to see if any of the EV chatter during democratic debate might influence it on the open.

Then again there was some damn pro union chatter too

 

[EVNow]

Feels like shorts are still able to cap the SP - everyday there is a run up but is capped by fairly avg volume selling.

Today there was a 100k+ buy at 10:25 AM - that took that SP up $1.50. That is an unusual buy - in that it looked like someone was trying to push up the price (otherwise they would buy in small chunks and get better price).

So, seems to me both bulls & bears are on the sidelines waiting. Bulls don't want to bid up the price in anticipation because so many times the price has tumbled after the news. Bears are afraid of a positive surprise (and they are already 40M short).

I've not bought any calls yet because of high theta … and capping. For eg. when I checked last time most of the 8/5 calls needed the SP to climb to 235 after P&D release (on 7/2) to break-even.

 

[defc0n]

Odd price movement today. Hopefully I get another chance soon.

 

[defc0n]

This is essentially what my line of thinking has been right now.

 

[anthonyj]

This is essentially what my line of thinking has been right now.

View attachment 424281

More like this imo

Analyst Mark Spiegel is estimating 0 deliveries for Q2, and if he’s right, we might be looking like Enron pretty soon :/

 

[Antares Nebula]

This is essentially what my line of thinking has been right now.

View attachment 424281

Yes, I saw the same thing. V recovery is a def possibility, but not certainty of course. And then look what happened after it got up there. It went back down before finally moving up again. Ideal would be an all out V recovery back to all time highs.

The worst case scenario I see (besides dropping sig further to 100 or something), is for it to bounce around between 180 and 280 for another couple of years, essentially forming one massive, 7 year head and shoulders pattern. That would just suck. But I don't see it failing after that, but going up and finally break all time highs, after all those years. That's where a buy it and forget it strategy with pure shares will save you a lot of headache and time.

Just don't know what will happen here. The break of 250 support just completely screwed all the technicals. This thing can V, stagnate, or drop further. I'm a long term believer, but in the short or near term, it's just one big clusterf***!

 

[anthonyj]

Yes, I saw the same thing. V recovery is a def possibility, but not certainty of course. And then look what happened after it got up there. It went back down before finally moving up again. Ideal would be an all out V recovery back to all time highs.

The worst case scenario I see (besides dropping sig further to 100 or something), is for it to bounce around between 180 and 280 for another couple of years, essentially forming one massive, 7 year head and shoulders pattern. That would just suck. But I don't see it failing after that, but going up and finally break all time highs, after all those years. That's where a buy it and forget it strategy with pure shares will save you a lot of headache and time.

Just don't know what will happen here. The break of 250 support just completely screwed all the technicals. This thing can V, stagnate, or drop further. I'm a long term believer, but in the short or near term, it's just one big clusterf***!

Look at how successful SpaceX is. If you hold shares in Tesla, you are also betting on SpaceX indirectly. Elon would use SpaceX to save Tesla from disaster if it ever strikes. It’s part of the reason why I am so confident in the stock long term. And $220 is a steal for the short and long term IMO. Forget long term technical charts because they can easily be broken to the upside by some major announcement

 

[defc0n]

Yes, I saw the same thing. V recovery is a def possibility, but not certainty of course. And then look what happened after it got up there. It went back down before finally moving up again. Ideal would be an all out V recovery back to all time highs.

The worst case scenario I see (besides dropping sig further to 100 or something), is for it to bounce around between 180 and 280 for another couple of years, essentially forming one massive, 7 year head and shoulders pattern. That would just suck. But I don't see it failing after that, but going up and finally break all time highs, after all those years. That's where a buy it and forget it strategy with pure shares will save you a lot of headache and time.

Just don't know what will happen here. The break of 250 support just completely screwed all the technicals. This thing can V, stagnate, or drop further. I'm a long term believer, but in the short or near term, it's just one big clusterf***!

I do feel a similar sharp V recovery may be starting to lag behind where it should be. But let’s see what happens after deliveries are reported.

I still haven’t bought shares again yet.

 

[defc0n]

I definitely don’t think it’s rebounding to ATHs anytime soon. Not again during the model 3 era. I believe it would take successful model Y or substantial FSD progress to get there once more.

Battery tech reveal will almost certainly be very well received compared to autonomy investor day, though...

 

[Antares Nebula]

Look at how successful SpaceX is. If you hold shares in Tesla, you are also betting on SpaceX indirectly. Elon would use SpaceX to save Tesla from disaster if it ever strikes. It’s part of the reason why I am so confident in the stock long term. And $220 is a steal for the short and long term IMO. Forget long term technical charts because they can easily be broken to the upside by some major announcement

I agree with everything you said. And definitely 220 is a steal. If you don't already have a position, I wouldn't think twice about buying. What I was talking about earlier was for those wanting to trade, esp with options. Very hard to say what will happen in the near or medium term (could drop to 150 or Apple could buy them out for 500). But long term extremely bullish at this price.

But that's just me. I'm no expert nor a prof trader or prof investor. If you have a better feel and think it's absolutely going up in the short or medium term, then go for it. And if you have arguments to as to why, I'm certainly open minded and willing to listen.

And to be absolutely clear, it is not that I think it won't go up in the near term. It's just that I have no idea one way or another. I see catalysts in the near term that can shoot this back up to 300 or even 400. But I also see potential Tesla specific and macro economic obstacles that can cause it to stagnate or drop.

 

[Freder Reeve]

I definitely don’t think it’s rebounding to ATHs anytime soon. Not again during the model 3 era. I believe it would take successful model Y or substantial FSD progress to get there once more.
Battery tech reveal will almost certainly be very well received compared to autonomy investor day, though...

I think they've positioned Y for that lead role well, looking back now. In my opinion they made exactly as many 3's this qrtr as they possibly could. I imagine the plan for 3 to become the network taxi is still on schedule. When Y is being mass produced they'll need a whole lot more batteries than anyone could have gotten ahold of (not to mention eventual x/s switch). I suspect the only 3s being produced (once Y battery needs are met) will be for tesla to use in their own fleet. Can't wait til they show their evolving battery-building muscle off. The pickup should have substantial impact as well, the price point made it something to look forward to.

 

[defc0n]

Look at how successful SpaceX is. If you hold shares in Tesla, you are also betting on SpaceX indirectly. Elon would use SpaceX to save Tesla from disaster if it ever strikes. It’s part of the reason why I am so confident in the stock long term. And $220 is a steal for the short and long term IMO. Forget long term technical charts because they can easily be broken to the upside by some major announcement

I really don’t think there are any more hidden positive major announcements brewing. I think essentially all the cards Tesla has had have been played now in the fairly long term. The exception being the details of the upcoming battery tech, but I believe a lot of that is already mostly known by those paying attention. And the pickup truck I guess, but I’d be hesitant to attach much value to that.

I also think Elon finally realizes he needs to try harder to behave and not piss off the SEC et al now too, though.

Trying to trade around technicals and news/events isn’t super straightforward. I only have my play money involved in and out of the stock anyway now as a game. I’m at least much less worried about Elon doing something random and causing the stock to drop though. Still possible, but not as likely.

I’m still interested at trying to play the Q2 delivery report... I do think there will be a positive spike.

When Q2 financials are reported, I fully anticipate Tesla will be attacked for potentially having a record number of deliveries, yet still being unprofitable.