trading

[defc0n]

Put in a limit order at $6.99 for LTHM on this drop, not too sure I’ll get it though.

 

[defc0n]

Ended up buying TSLA at $231.99, hoping for some recovery starting next week.

 

[bdy0627]

@Navin and others re longterm Downtrend Line break:

Curious, I saw on many charts that it broke the downtrend, but I did see one chart where it didn't. So I went to tradeview and drew the lines myself. Turns out on the normal scale, it broke; but on the log scale, it hadn't (just touched the top). See pics attached. So, hmm...

I actually expected it to climb higher Wed, but we can write it off to 4th of July mischief. The test will be next week. But seems like the analysts and media are pushing the narrative that earnings will be bad and this is a fade into earnings. Being a news vacuum from now until earnings, the stock may in fact fade. I don't have a strong opinion here. I think it could go either way, but I'm leaning slightly toward it going down into earnings, and then going up afterwards. Not going to trade it either way, but I will add shares if it goes lower.

(Bear in mind that if it does in fact fade, it can still stay above the channel/downtrend line (on the normal scale), if it fades slowly enough -- see chart/pics.)

View attachment 426421 View attachment 426422

i just looked at the chart that I typically use on Stockcharts, and the Log scale box is checked. I haven't paid attention to that but I think it defaults to that. My upper channel line is similar to what you showed. TSLA is just below it. I wonder if most traders use Log scale?

 

[defc0n]

If shorts are willing to keep giving me early morning discounts like this I’m happy to oblige.

 

[Antares Nebula]

i just looked at the chart that I typically use on Stockcharts, and the Log scale box is checked. I haven't paid attention to that but I think it defaults to that. My upper channel line is similar to what you showed. TSLA is just below it. I wonder if most traders use Log scale?

I noticed that Papafox's chart also is on log scale, and he also pointed out that TSLA is at the top of the channel.

Log scale is good when you're dealing with large point differences. Is 200 points (380-180) large? Maybe, I don't know. It is definitely useful when you are looking at the ten year chart of TSLA (or AMZN, etc.).

One thing for sure. If it can definitely break above 240/245, then the downtrend is broken (on both log and normal scale).

 

[defc0n]

I'd only bother with log scale on very long time durations.

 

[Antares Nebula]

I'd only bother with log scale on very long time durations.

It is not the time duration, but the price difference that determines use of log scale. But yes, generally, over long durations stocks tend to go up significantly. So there is a correlation. But if some exceptionally bad stocks stay flat over long durations, log scale is pointless.

 

[mongo]

If you care about $ value changes, use linear.
A constant $/time change is a straight line on a linear scale.

If you care about % value changes, use log.
A constant % rate of return is a straight line on a log scale.

 

[defc0n]

I’ve had a good past month, my luck is bound to run out soon. Not using any options. Just trading lithium stocks and shorting macros on a day to day decision basis. TSLA was probably half of it or so. This is only play money for me around 1 months salary. Thinking I should probably cash out gains once whenever I’m up a fair amount (like now?) and always keep it near 1 months salary so it stays a game. I think I’ll make better decisions that way and just keep it as fun. And I probably should just continue staying away from options.

 

[anthonyj]

I’ve had a good past month, my luck is bound to run out soon. Not using any options. Just trading lithium stocks and shorting macros on a day to day decision basis. TSLA was probably half of it or so. This is only play money for me around 1 months salary. Thinking I should probably cash out gains once whenever I’m up a fair amount (like now?) and always keep it near 1 months salary so it stays a game. I think I’ll make better decisions that way and just keep it as fun. And I probably should just continue staying away from options.

View attachment 426906

Do you own common stock as well? I would own some Tesla with your gains. It’s too low not to.

 

[defc0n]

Do you own common stock as well? I would own some Tesla with your gains. It’s too low not to.

I own quite a bit of LIT ETF in some IRAs. It’s done absolutely terrible. Over 5% of its holdings currently are TSLA. Don’t own common other than what I’ve been trading now.

I knew better and knew it started looking bad quite awhile ago after topping out around $40 but I held on to LIT anyway like an idiot. My disgust with it is probably what made me decide to start trading some lithium and other stocks. I’m not super confident in a recovery now even, but I’ve lost so much I keep thinking how much worse could it get. And valuations in many stocks there seem really stupid low to me now.

I’m actually not terribly confident in a strong recovery in TSLA either anytime soon at least. Even if things are going fairly well, it just has so many damn enemies. I do think the awful Q1 financials hurt a lot of their credibility that will be difficult to fully restore again. Many were blindsided by just how bad that was, some here at TMC I’ve seen.

What I am fairly confident about long term is the electrification of transport, and who all should be able to benefit from that, suppliers et. al.

 

[Boomer19]

shrug,
i thought we were still on holiday

 

[defc0n]

Sold at $234.99 what I bought at $231.99 for very small gain. Will hope for another dip soon.

 

[defc0n]

Bought ALB on a dip there.

 

[bdy0627]

TSLA seems primed for another leg up into earnings.

 

[defc0n]

Sold ALB for small gain, looking for my next dip to buy.

 

[defc0n]

Shorting the market again by buying SH in the possibility that S&P doesn't really want to go much north of 3000 yet. Not super confident but not a whole lot out there I want to buy right now.

 

[defc0n]

TSLA seems primed for another leg up into earnings.

I could see that happening. If I see that the stock price has stayed reasonably low before earnings I’ll probably buy ahead of it. If you’ve held and have had a sizable gain right before earnings, I’d strongly consider selling ahead of it. Not sure it’d be worth the risk.

Just as important, I’d keep an eye on what the earnings estimates are right before earnings too. I did get lucky with a bit of a dip the day deliveries were reported.

The market is so damn wacky right now with both good numbers and bad, expectation of lower rates when markets are a tough all the highs, trade wars, etc. I don’t have a good feel for what macros are doing at all.

 

[Boomer19]

starting out around 247

 

[Boomer19]

seems to be shaking off the hit piece