trading

[defc0n]

welp $180 here we come

 

[Boomer19]

Morgan Stanley (Adam Jonas) call with institutional clients:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/p4xy3002jfup74v/TSLA-Morgan Stanley call-5-22-19.MP3?dl=0

burning cash
nobody cares about the model Y (because tesla didn’t give much detail)
no strategic buy-in

by their garnered feedback, said was one-sided, they’ve gone from a growth story to a distressed credit and restructuring story

demand is the “first domino”
also have cost and debt problem,
but demand fell 1/3 from q4 to q1

couldn’t be worse time to depend on china for demand vaccum - (jonas says they raised the question of national security for tesla cars and technology in china)

sounds like the foundation of his bear case assumption is on 300k vehicles next year?

also, strategically, if it got to that point, nobody wants to buy a company and take on the liability that it’s electric cars may kill a pedestrian, run into a building, and there’s a lot of stored up energy in electric cars (fires!!!) - the roads aren’t a safe place, and auto industry has a dark side (where regulation is behind and unable to regulate such a fancy thing like tesla - akin to analysts just don’t know how value tesla. there’s just no way to value it! is it a car company? a tech company?...
sound familiar?)

even mentioned elon’s interest in SpaceX isn’t relevant to bailing out tesla (scty bailout nod)

MSt trader then comes on and explains the trading history (uh, yeah, you’re one of the ones slamming it around). as if one hand doesn’t wash the other.

the problem is - market rules.
we’re the ones living in bizarro world, unfortunately. the street doesn’t want tesla to succeed. they just want to bleed the pig.

they’ll tell you 1500 reasons the stock sucks, meanwhile they’re swallowing 100,000 lots whole to subsequently push it up.

bunch of so-so questions and silly answers (oh, and model x doors need re-engineering - jonas)

oh and tesla has best in class brand awareness (literally laughed out loud)

maybe not all of it was misinformation. but these guys are completely full of sugar

they slammed it. didn’t even talk about bull case. completely lopsided from the public note he wrote yesterday. slimy

i listened while trying to work. encourage you to listen yourself. maybe your take isn’t as foul as mine - def interested on hearing who will punch holes in the thesis)

moving in case we need to look back at this

 

[defc0n]

I worry $200 may now be resistance. I think I saw it get as low as $184 during premarket. I have no idea what happens next.

 

[Boomer19]

I worry $200 may now be resistance. I think I saw it get as low as $184 during premarket. I have no idea what happens next.

yeah i’m not liking this price action at all

i know it’s a rough day, nasdaq is down 2% at times. but i don’t think the street is buying any good news.

it’s enough to temporarily stall the sell off so far...but what happens next still seems like downward momentum.

short interest;

the last time we got this high was roughly this time last year

despite the wicked price drop, youd expect short interest to be a peak all time for tsla - it’s close

but still the ratios are low, so don’t expect a squeeze. there’s plenty of margin inventory for borrowers to continue shorting. even ihor said new borrows are less than 2% exp

5/15 number should be printed shortly

 

[bdy0627]

Macros are making this really tough. Shorts may still be able to paint this day red. We'll see. I "think" this email should keep us from setting new lows at this point, but who knows. The holiday week next week obviously favors the bears.

From Pulitzer:
$TSLA needs to hold $196+. Nice squeeze pre-market. Some of the prominent shorts were doing handstand about 30 mins ago.

 

[defc0n]

Thinking of going all in with my ira tomorrow. Last time I decided to do that with Tesla it was very profitable.

 

[Boomer19]

Thinking of going all in with my ira tomorrow. Last time I decided to do that with Tesla it was very profitable.

tread carefully

 

[defc0n]

Good thing I held off. I’d want to see it close over 200.

 

[Boomer19]

Good thing I held off. I’d want to see it close over 200.

this is just stupid at this point. there’s no reason for it besides outright manipulation.

 

[bdy0627]

The stock is still so weak. It's really hard to believe that no real buyers are showing up at these prices. Obviously shorts are in control here, but that's just because the buying support is so weak. There must have been a similar feeling during that Feb 2016 massive drop. At least that one was pretty quick. This drop since December has been excruciating.

 

[bdy0627]

this is just stupid at this point. there’s no reason for it besides outright manipulation.

The manipulation wouldn't be so effective if there was some buying support though. It's just so feeble that the shorts can keep pushing and pushing successfully. I have a very hard time believing longs would be selling in droves at this level. That doesn't make sense to me at all.

 

[neroden]

The stock is still so weak. It's really hard to believe that no real buyers are showing up at these prices.

A lot of the biggest real long-term buyers bought in the most recent secondary stock issuance, and may be "satiated" for now. (And there was a lot of shorting related to convertible bond hedges.)

On a more macro level, the trade wars are *such a mess* that a lot of companies, businesses, and even individuals are hoarding cash to deal with unexpected nonsense. Probably investment funds are doing so less, but big insurance companies and banks probably are hoarding cash. This probably doesn't reverse until Trump is removed from office and replaced with someone sane.

Obviously shorts are in control here, but that's just because the buying support is so weak. There must have been a similar feeling during that Feb 2016 massive drop. At least that one was pretty quick. This drop since December has been excruciating.

 

[bdy0627]

The lack of a bounce so far has been really disappointing, but that's the market for you. A big factor on this dip is that TSLA was near critical support levels just as the market starting dropping hard on the trade war concerns. The TA sources that I follow continue to point at $178-180 as the next buy the dip spot to consider. The head and shoulders move completed at $208, yet the stock continues to appear to want to go lower. This move lower would complete a triangle fill to the channel low around $180 or slightly below, depending upon how long it takes to get there. $178.12 is a reference low from November 2016 before the big climb in 2017. There "should" be a bounce there. The stock potentially could go even lower after a responsive bounce there. The monthly chart implies that we will go lower unless we climb next week.

 

[anthonyj]

The lack of a bounce so far has been really disappointing, but that's the market for you. A big factor on this dip is that TSLA was near critical support levels just as the market starting dropping hard on the trade war concerns. The TA sources that I follow continue to point at $178-180 as the next buy the dip spot to consider. The head and shoulders move completed at $208, yet the stock continues to appear to want to go lower. This move lower would complete a triangle fill to the channel low around $180 or slightly below, depending upon how long it takes to get there. $178.12 is a reference low from November 2016 before the big climb in 2017. There "should" be a bounce there. The stock potentially could go even lower after a responsive bounce there. The monthly chart implies that we will go lower unless we climb next week.

Insane how there is no bounce ever. This is a damaged stock. Might as well go to double digits and flush all the weak hands so that Elon/Larry/SpaceX can get in on the cheapies

 

[bdy0627]

Insane how there is no bounce ever. This is a damaged stock. Might as well go to double digits and flush all the weak hands so that Elon/Larry/SpaceX can get in on the cheapies

Keep in mind we are seeing some huge sell orders to drop the stock or limit climbs. That has been very effective so far because of the uncertainty/fear about demand as well as big traders being wary of the chart at this point. No doubt it is bad.I haven't sold any of the calls I've picked up along this long drop. I was dumb enough not to sell at least a few when we bounced to $258 on the capital raise because the reversal back down happened so fast. At this point, I really would love even a 11-12% bounce to reduce some of the shorter term calls I have. July is starting to look a little too close from our current level.

 

[Boomer19]

Keep in mind we are seeing some huge sell orders to drop the stock or limit climbs. That has been very effective so far because of the uncertainty/fear about demand as well as big traders being wary of the chart at this point. No doubt it is bad.I haven't sold any of the calls I've picked up along this long drop. I was dumb enough not to sell at least a few when we bounced to $258 on the capital raise because the reversal back down happened so fast. At this point, I really would love even a 11-12% bounce to reduce some of the shorter term calls I have. July is starting to look a little too close from our current level.

i have hung tight on doing much of any options trading - have been accumulating stock though

 

[anthonyj]

Keep in mind we are seeing some huge sell orders to drop the stock or limit climbs. That has been very effective so far because of the uncertainty/fear about demand as well as big traders being wary of the chart at this point. No doubt it is bad.I haven't sold any of the calls I've picked up along this long drop. I was dumb enough not to sell at least a few when we bounced to $258 on the capital raise because the reversal back down happened so fast. At this point, I really would love even a 11-12% bounce to reduce some of the shorter term calls I have. July is starting to look a little too close from our current level.

We ended at lows even after Elon’s email... honestly just goes to show that institutional investors are disregarding Elon and the company’s projections and are instead listening to analysts

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I sold my Porsche GT4, yeah, that one from my avatar.
Proceeds will go into TSLA in a form of short puts.

 

[Boomer19]

how many negative days are we now, out of the last few weeks...crazy

 

[bdy0627]

The longest it has ever taken historically for the stock to hit bottom after dropping over 25% is 8 days. That was on the big dip in early 2016. We are at day 3 here. Let's see if we set a new record on that with this dip or not. That 2016 dip is the only previous dip that really compares to this one. We are actually lower here from the ATH (-52.2%) than the dip in 2016 (-51.5%).