trading

[jeewee3000]

Thanks! Let's move on to my next question then:

When will Jun'22 options with additional leverage come out? $900, $1000 strike prices, anyone knows?

I don't have any certainty regarding this, but when I was eyeing the Jan'22 LEAPS a few months back I noticed they start releasing ITM call strike prices, and only after some weeks are the higher strike prices released.

Maybe the option writers first want a solid footing before giving people access to the higher leveraged OTM calls?

Either way, I check regularly so if I see higher strike prices I'll post it here. (If nobody beats me to it)

 

[FrankSG]

I don't have any certainty regarding this, but when I was eyeing the Jan'22 LEAPS a few months back I noticed they start releasing ITM call strike prices, and only after some weeks are the higher strike prices released.

Maybe the option writers first want a solid footing before giving people access to the higher leveraged OTM calls?

Either way, I check regularly so if I see higher strike prices I'll post it here. (If nobody beats me to it)

Yeah I noticed that too with the Jan'22s. Too bad the $600s only came out after earnings, else I would've picked up 10x of those for ~$5k.

Somebody on Reddit knew the exact release date of the Jan'22s though about a month or two in advance. I wonder where he found out about that.

I guess for now the best way is to just check the options chain daily. Thanks for the info.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Interesting to see Jim Cramer trying to estimate a local top for TSLA in terms of market cap at about double the current market cap of Ford and GM combined (link).
Cramer mentioning that "... until Tesla's valuation is twice that of Ford and GM, he's not worried.".
This market cap asumption translates to a price target for the SP of about $950.

 

[defc0n]

Sold at $496.36. Again putting on my cautious pants until I see reason otherwise.

shorting s&p yet again on what seems to be an overreaction on good news...

 

[defc0n]

TSLA near $472 would look healthy short term to me. Might take another stab at it around there. Shorts have been holding fairly strong lately according to latest from Ihor, not much convering. Maybe I’ll just play earnings now, not sure.

 

[EVNow]

Ofcourse I opened Jan-24 515/535 spread yesterday for $5. Looking at the news closed it when the SP came back to 494 briefly for small gain.

BTW, the IV is crazy high - about 20% more than usual 40% at this time of the day.

 

[FrankSG]

I don't have any certainty regarding this, but when I was eyeing the Jan'22 LEAPS a few months back I noticed they start releasing ITM call strike prices, and only after some weeks are the higher strike prices released.

Maybe the option writers first want a solid footing before giving people access to the higher leveraged OTM calls?

Either way, I check regularly so if I see higher strike prices I'll post it here. (If nobody beats me to it)

They're out! They go up to $990 now. I just bought a chunk of Jun'21 $900s yesterday, so I don't think I'll get any Jun'22s, but I'm interested to see the prices. If earnings disappoint and we drop to low $400s, I'll probably pick up some LEAPs.

 

[jeewee3000]

They're out! They go up to $990 now. I just bought a chunk of Jun'21 $900s yesterday, so I don't think I'll get any Jun'22s, but I'm interested to see the prices. If earnings disappoint and we drop to low $400s, I'll probably pick up some LEAPs.

Thanks for the heads up. Also not picking up LEAPS right now. I want either the SP to drop or the IV to lower by trading flat for some days/weeks (after ER is indeed a better time, if we don't rally).

What I did learn (sort of) after doing some research on the release dates of new LEAPS, is that generally the market makers write the options upon expiry of the previous cycle of options. Therefore at any given time there are a similar number of option expiry dates open.

Therefore I was expecting the Jun2022 LEAPS to come out after all the Jan2020 LEAPS where expired, but that is not exactly what happened.

So I'm still not entirely sure how to find the exact date in advance, but I do have a general idea.

 

[FrankSG]

They're out! They go up to $990 now. I just bought a chunk of Jun'21 $900s yesterday, so I don't think I'll get any Jun'22s, but I'm interested to see the prices. If earnings disappoint and we drop to low $400s, I'll probably pick up some LEAPs.

I took another hard look at the numbers again this weekend, and decided I had to get my hands on some Jun'22 $990s.

So today at market open, I sold my Jun'21 $400s that I picked up in August during the recession fears for a little over 10x what I paid for them, and rolled them over into Jun'22 $990s.

I have a hard time seeing Tesla do anything less than $5B in EBIT in 2021, and I think they could do as much as $10B in EBIT that year if things go well. So as long as the market would value Tesla at at least 40x EBIT in the bad case scenario, the options should pay off. Potentially if they hit $10B EBIT and receive a more generous valuation of 60x (Amazon) or 80x EBIT, that could be a $3000 or $4000 SP after Q4'21 earnings.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Rolling some shorter term call options with some gains to call options with a bit more time value left (weakness end of week due to monthly options expiry movements).
Thougts?

 

[FrankSG]

Rolling some shorter term call options with some gains to call options with a bit more time value left (weakness end of week due to monthly options expiry movements).
Thougts?

According to this:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

there are indeed 35k option contracts with strike prices between $500 and $550 expiring this Friday.

However, isn't it an extremely bad sign for the sellers of these contracts that they lost the battle for $500 this hard on the first day of the week? If you put yourself in the shoes of the sellers of these options, are you going to try to push it from $535 back down to $500, or are you going to cover your ass and try to limit your downsides with 4 days of trading left to go?

I very rarely trade short term, so I'm not an expert on this whatsoever, and I also think de-risking your investment is never a bad idea, but it seems to me like option expirations this week might be a tailwind rather than a headwind.

Also, observing the first few hours of trading yesterday, it seemed like $505 was being defended extremely hard. Every time it reached $505 there was a large push down. But once it broke $505, it shot up very quickly and it seems like there wasn't much resistance anymore. Maybe I'm reading too much into this, but it felt like the option sellers were trying to keep it near $500, but after ~1-2 hours had to give up, and had to let the stock run up.

 

[jeewee3000]

Rolling some shorter term call options with some gains to call options with a bit more time value left (weakness end of week due to monthly options expiry movements).
Thougts?

If it makes you sleep better at night, do it.

The Q4 ER really is a mystery to me. No doubt it will be positive to us (TMC) but the market's reaction is always so random. One day Elon's predictions are considered gobbledigook and the other day it's gospel.

For example: if Elon says the outlook for Q1 is (still) not good, but the rest of the coming five years is, I don't know what to expect. Might lead to massive short-term profit taking.

I'm in doubt a lot, but have decided to hold on to what I have now (like @FrankSG I am mainly in stock with a smidgen of LEAPS) but I will transfer some Dry Powder to my trading account by the ER to add LEAPS post ER in case of a dip.

In case there aint a dip, I might still add LEAPS. Don't know yet.

 

[FrankSG]

If it makes you sleep better at night, do it.

The Q4 ER really is a mystery to me. No doubt it will be positive to us (TMC) but the market's reaction is always so random. One day Elon's predictions are considered gobbledigook and the other day it's gospel.

For example: if Elon says the outlook for Q1 is (still) not good, but the rest of the coming five years is, I don't know what to expect. Might lead to massive short-term profit taking.

I'm in doubt a lot, but have decided to hold on to what I have now (like @FrankSG I am mainly in stock with a smidgen of LEAPS) but I will transfer some Dry Powder to my trading account by the ER to add LEAPS post ER in case of a dip.

In case there aint a dip, I might still add LEAPS. Don't know yet.

Have you seen the Near-future Quarterly Financials thread? Everybody is expecting them to beat consensus by a decent bit. Only question is if the market isn't already expecting higher than Wall Street consensus.

Nonetheless I think that similar to the P&D report, anything good should provide at least a mild boost, because it takes away risk and uncertainty. Some people may still be on the fence after Q3 wondering if it was a fluke.

Your point about Q1 is valid though. Some people who are not keeping up with the news, might be under the impression it could be bad again. To me it seems clear though that Q1 will be quite strong. There was another post in the daily thread today linking to this tweet:

RayTesla️ on Twitter

But I have no idea how aware the market is of this at this point.

 

[jeewee3000]

Have you seen the Near-future Quarterly Financials thread? Everybody is expecting them to beat consensus by a decent bit. Only question is if the market isn't already expecting higher than Wall Street consensus.

Nonetheless I think that similar to the P&D report, anything good should provide at least a mild boost, because it takes away risk and uncertainty. Some people may still be on the fence after Q3 wondering if it was a fluke.

Your point about Q1 is valid though. Some people who are not keeping up with the news, might be under the impression it could be bad again. To me it seems clear though that Q1 will be quite strong. There was another post in the daily thread today linking to this tweet:

RayTesla️ on Twitter

But I have no idea how aware the market is of this at this point.

Thanks for your post. I do follow the near-future thread, but Wall Street has in the past regarded the ER a miss when it was actually a beat by raising expectations suddenly. (case in point: right now the "consensus EPS" on Yahoo Finance is 2,2 $/share. I remember posting last week the Yahoo consensus was 1,6$/share. This number might still rise in order to direct a 'miss'.)

This stock has given me a beating too many times in the past after ER, in the sense that I don't really "play" it. That I held long term options through Q3 ER was dumb buy-and-hold luck.

 

[FrankSG]

Thanks for your post. I do follow the near-future thread, but Wall Street has in the past regarded the ER a miss when it was actually a beat by raising expectations suddenly. (case in point: right now the "consensus EPS" on Yahoo Finance is 2,2 $/share. I remember posting last week the Yahoo consensus was 1,6$/share. This number might still rise in order to direct a 'miss'.)

Thank you for sharing this. I was not aware it went up this much already in the last few days, but this makes sense considering analyst upgrades, and the rise in stock price.

 

[jeewee3000]

Might be a stupid move, but I converted some shares to a JUN22 $1000 LEAP. (Yes, I'm a small timer and quite risk-averse )

I was on the fence for a while about this but this is what pushed me over the edge:
- if the ER turns out to be great, I have some extra leverage (not the best option for that, but I don't like to gamble);
- if the SP drops (after ER for example), there is plenty of time till expiry for the option to recover AND I plan to add more LEAPS in this case.

Reason I got edgy is currently I'm only holding a JAN22 $640 LEAP which is up 500% but I don't want to get rid of it before either we reach JAN21 or the stock goes to $1000. We've only just reached the juicy part.

However, if the stock goes crazy (in a positive sense) I want to be able to take something of the table and keep a leveraged position.

Also, I'm quite convinced $1000 is possible by early 2022. If not I'll roll the call over around JUN21.

Not advice. Just sharing.

Anyone buying short term calls for the ER? I looked at some of them but found them all so pricey.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Sold 38% of my own TSLA's holding, or 30% of my immediate family's portfolio. We were all TSLA before that.

Reason for aggressive divesting is that I'm not eager to work anymore, so I may start early retirement. Otherwise I'd kept some more, but, I would be selling at these levels for sure

 

[Cherry Wine]

My time horizon is very long, so I am not selling at all. I have hedged with a small short term put position to capture a potential drop and some LEAPS spreads. I have a small cash / margin position to deploy upon a big pullback.

 

[EVNow]

Where do you guys think SP goes from here - in the next 2 days ? Didn't buy anything today since I thought it might be a down day.

 

[defc0n]

Bought my first puts today for an unnamed company that produces diesel drivetrains I think there is a pretty strong chance that there may be significant divestment away from fossil fuels and the like this year.

Admittedly, I was inspired by the comments from Blackrock recently about climate change influencing their investment strategy.