It's obviously looking more likely that buyers won't show up in big numbers before Friday's closing cross, and that it stays flat, drops to $600, or gets stuck below $650 on low volume. One would think that if a lot of buying still had to be done, volume would be picking up by now.
However, if buyers do show up in decent numbers, I do think it'll run-up very easily. I'd hate to be a MM this week. Pin-risk this week would keep me up all night every night as we get closer and closer to Friday's close.
The question is will buyers show up or not. I think that the data from my prediction model is still the most reliable data I have, so that's what I continue to believe in for the most part.
I wonder if there's any way that buyers do have to buy a lot of shares, but have basically decided that doing so extremely carefully for most of this week is the best way to go about it. If I had to buy a lot of TSLA, and I was the only one that had to do so, I wouldn't just start buying a ton on Monday. I would do pretty much exactly what is currently happening. Buy tiny amounts here and there, let the stock drift down slightly, hope some people panic sell to me, scoop up some shares from MMs reducing their delta inventory, etc. I can always start buying in bigger volume at the very end of the week. People who won't sell until $700 won't until $700 regardless of whether it happens on Monday or Friday, but speculators and options holders might get scared and cash out during the week if it's quiet, whereas otherwise more and more might pile on.
The big problem with this theory is that there's almost certainly not just 1 buyer. So it'd require all the buyers to be cooperating, or at least that they all understand the same thing: that it wouldn't help them to drive the price up early.
So on one hand there's my prediction model, which I think is still the most reliable information, but on the other hand the low volume this week sort of points to there somehow some way not being any real buyers right now, and perhaps not until Friday's cross and next week, or perhaps even not at all.
Do explain: “not even at all”? How could buyers not show up? TSLA IS being added, they DO have to buy at some point...we should see this in the volume no matter what happens with the price, yes?