On the SP reaching 800-1000 at peak, do you see the odds the same now as when you composed your blog, part-2? Similarly where do you see the SP settling, still at $600-$800?
If not, can you quantize the changes in your expectations?
Is SP at $800 still the decision point for converting your ITM LEAPS into shares?
Is FSD the reason to have $1600-$2000 by Sep-21 as the target for potential CC sale, consideration?
What I previously stated was that I thought closer to $800 is more likely than closer to $600 (so $700+ more likely than $700-), and that there's a fair possibility of higher spikes, as well as higher settlement.
I think I actually feel more bullish now than when I wrote the post. I think settlement above $700 instead of below it is now not just more likely, but quite a bit more likely. Probably more like 2-to-1 rather than 60/40 or so.
It's hard to say when I'll sell which options. I've been going on a day-by-day basis and constantly adjusting my plan, and I might have to go hour-by-hour, or even minute-by-minute if things get volatile. With regards to my DITM leaps, I think I'll almost certainly convert some before $750, and also almost certainly convert all before $850, perhaps before $800.
This is mostly a factor of them being so deep ITM, and having little upside left. Converting these (which make up a v large % of my portfolio) to shares is also a good way for me to limit downside, and make me a little more comfortable holding onto my short-term options longer. It's very unlikely we'll see a drop so large that my DITM leaps get into real danger (<$400), but I'll still feel a lot better about letting short-term plays run (if I so choose) after those DITM leaps have been converted to shares.