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Tri motor and single motor have swapped production times

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So I initially did single-motor because I was originally going to get the Y for the extra seats on occasion and the occasional need to haul something large. The cybertruck will do both better, however I'm starting to really eyeball that longer range. But now I'm worried about losing place in line, so how solid is that idea of waiting for configuration date and changing it then rather than changing the reservation?
 
So I initially did single-motor because I was originally going to get the Y for the extra seats on occasion and the occasional need to haul something large. The cybertruck will do both better, however I'm starting to really eyeball that longer range. But now I'm worried about losing place in line, so how solid is that idea of waiting for configuration date and changing it then rather than changing the reservation?

From what I read, updating your order you keep the same RN#, how Tesla treats it internally it's hard to say, but probably safe since they will probably open up ordering based on groups of RN#.

I don't expect the cybertruck to arrive early -- so it all depends on your spot in queue.
If you are far enough back there may be no difference in timing, but changing to Tri-motor really is your best chance to get it sooner.

Assuming a mix based on the reservation tracker @550K potential orders:

220K Tri-motor (40%)
275K Dual (50%)
55K Single (10%)

Realistically Tesla doesn't need to do the lower-margin single motor until 1-2 years after production starts.
All depends what their capacity turns out to be, if they build in Texas, etc.

I have a late 2019 Y 7-seat reservation and a very early Cybertruck tri-motor reservation.+
Probably looking at late 2021 for both -- I may change my Y to a performance model if it increases my chances of getting a 7-seater sooner. Just crazy demand all around.
 
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Ordered a tri-motor for my wife last weekend. Was trying to get her into a Y, and she said she wanted a cybertruck instead. Love her.

How long did it take Tesla to get through it's backlog of Model 3 reservations? When I ordered mine it was after the reservation backlog had been cleared I guess.
 
Ordered a tri-motor for my wife last weekend. Was trying to get her into a Y, and she said she wanted a cybertruck instead. Love her.

How long did it take Tesla to get through it's backlog of Model 3 reservations? When I ordered mine it was after the reservation backlog had been cleared I guess.
It was about 18 months or so for the US buyer backlog to clear but the Model 3 ramp up was pretty slow. Considering there will be a decent number of reservation holders that will back out, a faster ramp up, and the fact that you are a current Tesla owner I would think you'd have yours within 6 to 9 months after production starts.
 
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It was about 18 months or so for the US buyer backlog to clear but the Model 3 ramp up was pretty slow. Considering there will be a decent number of reservation holders that will back out, a faster ramp up, and the fact that you are a current Tesla owner I would think you'd have yours within 6 to 9 months after production starts.

Since the CT is a Uni-body, production should be fairly easier then Model S,X,Y, 3. Possibly 5k/Week within a month. With one color option (rumor), i would expect CT delivery to be 3-4 months after production.
 
Reading through all this conversation regarding reservation numbers and "spot in line" concerns, I would caution everyone to remember the Model 3 ramp and all the speculation regarding delivery sequence. People got almost violent about one person or another getting their car sooner than they thought they should.

In the end, everyone will get their cars. And they will be MAGNIFICENT!

Dan
 
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Ok maybe a dumb question... Will all tri-motor's and dual's be built first or is tri first then all the dual's? I have read it both ways.
Is there any proof exactly how the order and production line will be or is this just based off other models and how they were done?
I have a early reservation number first 20-30 minutes.
 
Ok maybe a dumb question... Will all tri-motor's and dual's be built first or is tri first then all the dual's? I have read it both ways.
Is there any proof exactly how the order and production line will be or is this just based off other models and how they were done?
I have a early reservation number first 20-30 minutes.

No official guidance and many factors at work.
If they can get the tri motor power train ready in time, I'd expect priority to them due to higher margins. Also depends on cell supply as tri takes more. Since both have front and rear drive units, the production line impact is less than RWD, AWD varatiants. Supply change wise, they may build both since the tri motor drive unit production rate would be less than the assembly line rate.

Clear as mud, yah?
 
Ok maybe a dumb question... Will all tri-motor's and dual's be built first or is tri first then all the dual's? I have read it both ways.
Is there any proof exactly how the order and production line will be or is this just based off other models and how they were done?
I have a early reservation number first 20-30 minutes.

The most experiencing trim is always first. That has been the Tesla rule since the Model S. The performance were first out the gate. The same will be said with Cybertruck. The Tri-Motor will have first deliveries. The duel Motor will follow a few weeks after. Since the Cybertruck is the first model with a stainless steel uni-body, Tesla may be able to get both Tri and Dual out the gate at the same time. if all goes as planed, by late 2021, we could see a volume of 5K a week.
 
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