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Trip Chowdry "analyst" - what is this guy smoking!? Insane Supercharger forecast

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by googlepeakoil, Jan 16, 2017.

  1. googlepeakoil

    googlepeakoil Member

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    I've heard this guy speak on conference calls - and I'm frequently shocked by what he comes up with. But the most recent takes the biscuit, hits the ball out of the park in terms of non-sensical, over-ambitious, total inane rubbish - from a WALL STREET ANALYST.
    The what - he predicts $2.62bn revenue from Superchargers by 2020 of which most will be profit
    The maths - based on 1.5million cars, $0.16 avg per minute at supercharger for 30minutes every day. Which is $4.80 per vehicle, or $7.2m a day.
    Why this is a TERRIBLE assumption!!!
    A. Let's forget Tesla said it's not going to be profit generating. Missed by idiot Trip.
    B. 1.5million cars - each charging for 30mins. Given most will be charging at rush hour you will need 100,000 supercharger bays!!! What have we now, 5,000? So apparently it's going to expand by 20 fold in 3 years!!!
    C. How can "most be profit" when. You have to pay for your electricity. The solar panels on the stalls generate a paltry amount of electricity compared with Supercharger current. At 120kW that's the average consumption of 60-120 houses (dependent on locale / time of year). Covering 1 house with solarpanels is about the same as a house uses in a year - and last I checked a supercharger bay is smaller than a house. Also about 5% of superchargers have solarpanels. So basically Tesla is buying electricity off the grid - maybe at a slight discount.
    Lets break down the other factsOk - breaking it down: Him vs my expectation.
    - 1.5m vehicles. Lets assume Tesla can hit this. I reckon only 1m. So 66% of Trip
    - Every car going to the supercharger, every day. Probably not. Most charge at home. Lets say every 5 days. 20% Charging every day for 30minutes would give you 150-200miles of range. Most people don't do quarter that - averaged over 7 days a week!
    - Every car paying for it's use. NO. 100,000 will have it free - and thus likely to use it more than people who got it free. ALL will have it free for the first 400kW / 1000 miles. So lets assume 20% aren't paying. So 80% are paying.

    Times all of the above together and you come out to about 10% of what Trip said. He's out by a full MAGNITUDE of 10.

    - Finally- building the network + cost/maintenance. Each SC costs circa $500,000 for construction for maybe 10 SC's cars. High-power, reinforced copper cables from a transformer are expensive. Then you got to dig up areas of the road, ground, re-tarmac, supply 100s of the 10kW transformers (each SC requires 15 to deliver 150kW). etc to get the elec back to DC. While they may get more efficient at building them each is also getting bigger. Building the number out to 100,000 would cost Tesla $5bn.

    Thanks to Bill Maurer on SA for crying BS on Trip's logic - and for some of the maths/facts. The rest are my assumptions (100,000 SC's, $500k per SC install, the %ages) that Bill missed.

    This needs to be spread. People count on Trip for investment advice! He should NOT have a job in this industry. This is DotCom era fictional rubbish!
     
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  2. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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  3. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    Coverage of articular topics in the General Discussion thread isn't all that helpful to me personally. I like it when people start up new threads on topics - the topics might have started in General Discussion, but without new threads for new topics, at the limit we get a forum with 1 thread called General Discussion.

    In this particular case, I'd have missed it without this separate topic being started.

    Thanks @googlepeakoil
     
  4. TradingInvest

    TradingInvest Member

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    googlepeakoil, Can you think of a scenario that Trip's predictions come true? You think it's impossible?
     
  5. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Agreed, though with increasing Model 3 sales a higher percentage of Teslas will not have home charging since lower income owners will be less likely to have personal garages. Also, more and more Tesla owners will charge at work as workplace EV charging becomes more common.
     
  6. TradingInvest

    TradingInvest Member

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    Tesla is setting up for something big. They are building superchargers in the cities, one of the reasons is that Tesla network will need these superchargers.

    Generally we are good at linear extrapolation, not tipping point type prediction. At this moment, most people don't believe there will be autonomous cars on Tesla network. Many people don't believe Elon can land rocket even AFTER he landed a rocket. They said it's a fake video.
     
  7. X Fan

    X Fan Supporting Member

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    Agreed plus a different mgt team may decide to monetize the SC investment vs Elons current approach. .
     

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