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Troy's Tesla Estimates
- Thread starter Troy
- Start date
Hi, everybody. My Tesla Delivery Estimate for Q3 2020 is now 141K and my estimate for this year is still 510K and I still think 500K this year is 95% likely.
Here is how my estimates have changed so far in Q3. Let me clarify this table. On 22 July, my estimate was 145K for Q3, ~185.700 for Q4, and 510K for 2020. Today, on 9 Aug, my estimate is 141K for Q3, ~189,600 for Q4, and again 510K for 2020.
Some of the data sources I have used for today's estimate:
Here is my accuracy. The first table early in the quarter and the second one shows my final estimates on the last day of the quarter. I post all my estimates for free on Twitter. To summarize, in the last 4 quarters my accuracy was 90-96% early in the quarter and 94-99% at the end of the quarter.
The first table above is the simplified version of my table. The detailed version looks like this. This was my Q3 estimate on 16 July 2020:
This was my Q3 estimate on 22 July 2020:
Here is how my estimates have changed so far in Q3. Let me clarify this table. On 22 July, my estimate was 145K for Q3, ~185.700 for Q4, and 510K for 2020. Today, on 9 Aug, my estimate is 141K for Q3, ~189,600 for Q4, and again 510K for 2020.
Some of the data sources I have used for today's estimate:
- North America: VIN data and data from my Model Y Survey HERE and Model 3 Survey HERE and historical sales data like my table HERE that shows Tesla deliveries in 2019.
- Europe: Shipping data. So far in Q3, ships that carry Teslas to Europe have spent 11.92 days loading. I convert that to units.
- APAC (excluding made-in-China Model 3): Again shipping data.
- China: July production at Giga Shanghai
Here is my accuracy. The first table early in the quarter and the second one shows my final estimates on the last day of the quarter. I post all my estimates for free on Twitter. To summarize, in the last 4 quarters my accuracy was 90-96% early in the quarter and 94-99% at the end of the quarter.
The first table above is the simplified version of my table. The detailed version looks like this. This was my Q3 estimate on 16 July 2020:
This was my Q3 estimate on 22 July 2020:
Thank you for all your hard work/estimates!
Troy,
Let me join others here and on your Twitter in thanking you for the awesome work you've been doing. For years now you have developed a reliable and fact based system and reached a 95% initial and close to 99% final estimate accuracy even during the crazy Covid Q2. Not only that, but you share this with everyone, free of charge! People like you make this community so smart about Tesla.
I know you work with facts, not fan fiction, but one thing that I'll be eager to observe is how S/X deliveries will look like in Q4. I think your numbers show the "as is" status, with Raven S/X utilizing about 2/3 of the installed production capacity. One thing to look for on September 22 is if, as I and many others suspect, Elon announces new cells already in production at Kato Road and if those would go into the new Plaid S/X ready for Q4 deliveries. That refresh may only involve the batteries and powertrain, but it could go as far as some tweaks to the exterior and interior as well. In any case, if this does happen, it could represent an upside to S/X numbers in Q4.
Let me join others here and on your Twitter in thanking you for the awesome work you've been doing. For years now you have developed a reliable and fact based system and reached a 95% initial and close to 99% final estimate accuracy even during the crazy Covid Q2. Not only that, but you share this with everyone, free of charge! People like you make this community so smart about Tesla.
I know you work with facts, not fan fiction, but one thing that I'll be eager to observe is how S/X deliveries will look like in Q4. I think your numbers show the "as is" status, with Raven S/X utilizing about 2/3 of the installed production capacity. One thing to look for on September 22 is if, as I and many others suspect, Elon announces new cells already in production at Kato Road and if those would go into the new Plaid S/X ready for Q4 deliveries. That refresh may only involve the batteries and powertrain, but it could go as far as some tweaks to the exterior and interior as well. In any case, if this does happen, it could represent an upside to S/X numbers in Q4.
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