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True Cost of Ownership

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by aarons23, Mar 6, 2017.

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  1. aarons23

    aarons23 Member

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    Anxious for the final reveal of the Model 3 and am curious what your guys thoughts are on the dollar amount for the TCO is going to be for the Model 3. Obviously a 35k ICE cars TCO will be a lot more where as a 35k Electric car will be cheaper. Any thoughts on this?
     
  2. 182RG

    182RG Free The Service Manuals From Tyranny

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    This simply isn't true, and is often overstated. I've owned several ICE vehicles in this price range, that I drove to 150K miles with only brakes, tires, and oil changes as necessary maintenance. I performed my own maintenance which kept my costs low. Tesla isn't a big fan of people working on their own vehicles, hence the lack of parts, information, and tools. Don't forget to include taxes, insurance, and registration fees as part of TCO, as well as installation of your home charging infrastructure.
     
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  3. Haxster

    Haxster Member

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    #3 Haxster, Mar 6, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2017
    And also consider depreciation. Will the M3 be more like the relatively low depreciation rate for an MS or MX or more like the high rate of a Leaf?

    In several years, the "first generation" 2018 M3s may look a lot less appealing to buyers than then-current similar models from Tesla and others. And, with ~400K reservations and high volume production planned, there may be a ton of used M3s on the market.

    On the other hand, in 50 years, if they can be kept running, M3s may have quite the collector value.
     
  4. Dwdnjck

    Dwdnjck Member

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    Tony Seba estimates a $35000 model 3 will have a cost of ownership similar to a $25000 Toyota Corolla. Which makes one wonder why anyone would buy anything but Model 3 ,or similar in the future.
     
  5. zenmaster

    zenmaster Member

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    It's not only the base price which brings down the TCO, but the fact that you have such a high production car. The more cars produced, the lower the parts cost. With such a large customer base, competitive aftermarket parts and service will become a worthwhile enterprise eventually.
     
  6. slipnslider

    slipnslider Member

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    I suspect these cars have too much tech to ever become classics. It's hard enough to get a 5 year old phone or laptop to function let alone a 50 year old car that runs on 50 year old computer programs. These things are more likely to be gigantic paperweights than classic cars. The level of expertise required to repair every little fancy tesla gizmo that breaks is going to make that inevitable. I doubt telsa will be interested in servicing them after 8-10 years either, just like apple with their hardware. They want you to throw it away and buy a new one. There is no financial incentive to make high tech gadgets last a long time.
     
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  7. slipnslider

    slipnslider Member

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    If you take a lot of road trips and only have 1 car, the corolla is better. The supercharger network is already struggling and the 3's aren't even on the road yet.
     
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  8. jaguar36

    jaguar36 Active Member

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    The TCO on a 3 is going to vary tremendously depending on how Tesla handles service, and what you are willing to do yourself on it or an ICE. If Tesla uses the same cost structure for service on the 3 as on the S (which would make sense since every thing they service on the S is on the 3) then its likely the TCO will be comparable to a reliable fuel efficient ICE since the high service cost will offset the low fuel cost.

    The supercharger network is far from "struggling" there are a few locations (in CA) that are overcrowded due to locals using them. Pretty much the entire rest of the network is very very underutilized.
     
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  9. TexLaw

    TexLaw Member

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    I'm curious how anyone can have any confidence in any estimates on the TCO of a vehicle that has not even entered production. It's speculation that is based on speculation that is based on assumptions that are based on a few years' data related to other cars.
     
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  10. roblab

    roblab Active Member

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    I don't understand your viewpoint. Maybe on a TCO, but as was stated earlier, "I do my own maintenance" ... and I am not worth paying myself minimum wage. I have spent many many hours under the car or under the hood. Do you price dumping your oil?

    I go on road trips. I have owned Crayolas and Prii. The Tesla is better. FAR better. Power, traction, steering in emergencies or around wet mountain roads (where I live), and room and looks. Some things are not measureable with TCO,

    As to Tesla maintenance, my second gen car has been to the service center once, free, for a 15 minute fix of a squeak in the pano, in 40,000 miles. I had 82,000 miles on my first gen Tesla, with only a few teething problems at no cost. Tires aside, zero maintenance.

    Supercharging network is expanding. I have only once waited at a SC, for less than 5 min, in 4+ years. Usually there are no cars whatever in the SC, over the western half of the US.
     
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  11. osu_cowboy_007

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    If Tesla can save us money on insurance, it could be cheaper than a $25K ICE.
     
  12. ikjadoon

    ikjadoon Member

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    They might have been referring to this issue, where increasing numbers of Superchargers are breaking down / behind on maintenance.
     
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  13. biosci

    biosci Member

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    I must have missed this but have there been talks of owning a Tesla actually having a significant dent in insurance costs per year as compared to comparable vehicles? As opposed to insurance cos saying,"oh you drive a tesla... premium car = premium insurance rates!"
     
  14. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 918 Hybrid

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  15. SageBrush

    SageBrush Active Member

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    Out of warranty repair costs and Insurance are the big unknowns. I'm cautiously optimistic that high volume production and more diverse service strategies will let the Model 3 compete favorably with ICEVs
     
  16. alseTrick

    alseTrick Active Member

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    If Tesla's are cheaper it's due to fuel costs. It's not due to manufacturing reliability and repair costs/service plans.
     
  17. DavidP

    DavidP Member

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    Yes, you're right. It's the main feature for all the electric car.
    For exemple, for the life of the car, I will save 20 000$ in gas at minimum!!
    Note, that I drive near 50 000km/year with a 6L/100km car.

    One of the real pleasure of ownership is to never stop again at a gas station ;)
     
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  18. jaguar36

    jaguar36 Active Member

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    Keep in mind that the fuel savings may not be all that substantial depending on where you live and what gas prices do.
    Currently our S is running an average of 325Whr/mile, which works out to an equivalent cost of 39mpg where I live. Keeping in mind the size of the S thats still pretty good, but even if the 3 is significantly lower, its quite possible that it won't be significantly cheaper to fuel than a good hybrid ICE.

    Course gas prices could also sky-rocket.
     
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  19. TexLaw

    TexLaw Member

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    Wow, man! How much are you paying for gas and power? I see you live in New Jersey, but I didn't think it was that bad.

    I assumed 325Whr/mi for a MS, 30MPG for a comparable full-sized sedan (a number chosen after a cursory look at average numbers), $2.10/gal for gas (about the average in the Houston area), and $0.07145/kWh for home electricity (my contract price if I spread the fixed portion of the delivery charge over 1000kWh). With those assumptions, I get about 88MPGe.
     
  20. CmdrThor

    CmdrThor Active Member

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    The Model S rear wheel drive costs approximately $580 per year for annual service if you buy the 4 year plan. Model X is nearly $690. I am going to venture out and guess Model 3 maintenance will run in the $400 per year range or just over $0.03 / mile if you drive 12,500 miles per year. Tires will likely run another $0.02/mile or so. That would put 5 year maintenance at around $3,125.

    This is likely going to be cheaper than similar sized sedans (Edmunds lists an Audi A4 5 year maintenance as $5,906), but it is not going to be as cheap as some people hope.
     

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