true M3 delivery lead times?

[astrorob]

although tesla is claiming 2-4 week deliveries for new M3 orders in california, there are many posts here from people who ordered in october who still don't even have a VIN.

what's the prevailing wisdom? tesla's claim of 2-4 weeks seems like bunk to me. anyone know the current average delivery time for a LR AWD M3?

i don't need the car until early february and since i'm going to lease, i wasn't too concerned with getting in under the dec 31 FTC deadline. however if it's really taking tesla 8-10 weeks to build one of these, i had better order this year sometime.

 

[skydreamerjae]

Because during October Tesla was building for the overseas market. When I placed my order the website said 5-9 weeks. And it’s been updating every week and getting shorter every time. Currently it’s at 2-4 weeks. So mid to late December of order before Dec 8th and also pending location.

 

[starboarder]

Yes, its taking 8-10 weeks for some of us that ordered late Sept. Supposedly they focused on international orders first this quarter, so will see if in Dec they can fill all the domestic orders they are promising by end of the year.

 

[astrorob]

interesting, thanks. wasn't aware of the overseas element. they are currently claiming an order by dec 8 will ship by dec 31 and that seems super aggressive - and given tesla's history of aggressive deadlines subsequently missed, i was skeptical.

maybe because they're down to $1875 on the credit that they feel people won't be too angry if they miss dec 31?

i just didn't want to get into a situation where i wait until january to order and then find out we're back up to 8 weeks or something. however, since they could just as easily shift back to prioritizing non-USA deliveries, i guess that could still happen even if lead times are shrinking now.

 

[Friday2020TM3]

although tesla is claiming 2-4 week deliveries for new M3 orders in california, there are many posts here from people who ordered in october who still don't even have a VIN.

what's the prevailing wisdom? tesla's claim of 2-4 weeks seems like bunk to me. anyone know the current average delivery time for a LR AWD M3?

i don't need the car until early february and since i'm going to lease, i wasn't too concerned with getting in under the dec 31 FTC deadline. however if it's really taking tesla 8-10 weeks to build one of these, i had better order this year sometime.

Tesla's goal has always been California deliveries in December. They've been delivering east to west starting with Europe, then east coast through west coast. I ordered 10/18 at Costa Mesa SC with 6-10 week delivery putting me at end of November til end of December. Each week that passes, they reduce the delivery weeks as we get closer to December. Our time is almost here!!!

 

[jjrandorin]

interesting, thanks. wasn't aware of the overseas element. they are currently claiming an order by dec 8 will ship by dec 31 and that seems super aggressive - and given tesla's history of aggressive deadlines subsequently missed, i was skeptical.

maybe because they're down to $1875 on the credit that they feel people won't be too angry if they miss dec 31?

i just didn't want to get into a situation where i wait until january to order and then find out we're back up to 8 weeks or something. however, since they could just as easily shift back to prioritizing non-USA deliveries, i guess that could still happen even if lead times are shrinking now.

Thats highly likely if they continue the current pattern from this year, which is "1st two months of the quarter, prioritize international orders, last month, US orders".

My guess is, if you order in mid january you would likely be looking at mid to late march. If you order now, you will likely get your car the same time people who ordered the beginning of october do, which is last half of december.

Just my guess, but I feel fairly comfortable with it. Its not just "end of year" they prioritize international for the first couple of the months of a quarter. Basically, they ship to the farthest places first, and the closer you are to the factory the later you get your car, so that they deliver most or all orders in a specific quarter in that same quarter... but ordered in the beginning or middle of the quarter will make little difference unless you are matched with an inventory car.

TL ;DR version

"True model 3 delivery time estimates in the US = Last month of the quarter in which you order, with some exceptions, if you are in the US.

 

[Evergreeen]

You'll get it by end of year if not then March then June then Sept.

 

[skydreamerjae]

My boss who ordered a model 3 in January of this year got his car in like 2 days. Lol. SoCal order.

 

[jjrandorin]

My boss who ordered a model 3 in January of this year got his car in like 2 days. Lol. SoCal order.

They were not shipping international then. That started later in 2019. Last year, I ordered my model 3 the day after thanksgiving, and was driving out of the tesla delivery center on 12/04.

 

[astrorob]

ok thanks all, i think i'd better order sooner than later - i have not been following the M3 story closely and thought that lead times were just monotonically decreasing over time. but it does sound like there's good evidence for a spike sometime after the new year.

 

[astrorob]

followup question if anyone knows - i'll be out of town for about a week around christmas time; if they decide to deliver my car during that time are they just going to give the car to someone else? that would suck.

 

[rjsully04]

followup question if anyone knows - i'll be out of town for about a week around christmas time; if they decide to deliver my car during that time are they just going to give the car to someone else? that would suck.

Most likely yes.

 

[jjrandorin]

followup question if anyone knows - i'll be out of town for about a week around christmas time; if they decide to deliver my car during that time are they just going to give the car to someone else? that would suck.

most likely, yes. (EDIT-- someone beat me to this)

 

[ucmndd]

If you order a car in the next few days it’s highly likely they will deliver it to you by the end of the year. They have every incentive to.

 

[astrorob]

lame that i have to guess and optimize my order date to avoid them giving my car away... i'll have to do it closer to the 8th to prevent a disaster. i guess as long as i get the order in this quarter while they are promising late december delivery it's hard to imagine them telling me to wait till march to get a machine.

 

[starboarder]

lame that i have to guess and optimize my order date to avoid them giving my car away... i'll have to do it closer to the 8th to prevent a disaster. i guess as long as i get the order in this quarter while they are promising late december delivery it's hard to imagine them telling me to wait till march to get a machine.

If it makes you feel better they won't tell you about the wait, you just wait and they tell you nothing.

 

[astrorob]

If it makes you feel better they won't tell you about the wait, you just wait and they tell you nothing.

haha yes ignorance is bliss!