Trump’s plan to roll back Obama’s fuel economy rules for cars, explained

[Roadster]

Selfishly looking out for CA but perhaps broader long-term impact for EVs nation-wide. Excerpt below. Full article can be found on Vox...

Monthly sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles in the US, 2010 to 2016.
(Argonne National Laboratory)

If the ZEV rules get repealed, that would be a big blow to the electric vehicle market, says John Graham, the former administrator of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs under George W. Bush who worked extensively on fuel-economy issues. “Tesla’s business model would be hurt without the California ZEV regulation because Tesla generates significant revenue from the sale of ZEV credits to other vehicle manufacturers,” Graham tells me. “Several manufacturers have stated publicly that they would not be offering plug-in electric vehicles were it not for the California requirements.”

 

[miimura]

From the end of the same Vox article:

"To be sure, rescinding the [ZEV] order wouldn’t mean the death of all electric cars. “Some manufacturers (e.g., Nissan, Tesla, and GM) would probably continue to offer electric vehicles, even without the ZEV requirements,” says Graham. And, of course, other countries like China and Norway continue to aggressively push pro-electric-car policies, which will influence the types of cars automakers produce.

And over time, if the technology continues to improve, electric cars should catch on even without mandates. “In the long run,” says Graham, “if battery prices continue to decline rapidly, the electric vehicle will not be dependent on the ZEV waiver, as it will be able to compete in the marketplace on its own virtues.”
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I don't know about other people, but no matter what the current administration does, I cannot conceive of a situation that will cause me to buy another non-plug-in vehicle. I'm already pure BEV and see no reason to change. However, I will admit that the VW e-Golf lease would not be nearly as cheap as it was if not for the ZEV mandate.

 

[miimura]

The other point is that reopening the Mid-Term Review does not guarantee a different outcome. The finding was based on facts and the automakers would have to introduce new "evidence" into the record and have everything considered in its totality. If the facts remain such that the additional costs to increase efficiency are paid back 2X-3X over by the lifetime fuel costs, then I see no reason why the EPA staff should come to a different conclusion than what they already did.

 

[RiverBrick]

... The finding was based on facts and the automakers would have to introduce new "evidence" into the record ...

Call me cynical, but can't they just introduce alternative facts now?

 

[renim]

that VOX article skirts close to being fake news.

Trump has indicated a desire to make the EPA/CAFE standards have the normal midterm review.

Trump has indicated a desire to leave CARB/ZEV regulations alone.

the CAFE (EPA and NHTSA) are closely related national regulations
CARB's ZEVs are basically independent state regulations

 

[miimura]

Call me cynical, but can't they just introduce alternative facts now?

I have some faith in the EPA staff to maintain their BS meters, regardless of the stooge chosen to head the agency.