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Trying to Make Sense of Recent Software Versions, Update Numbers, and Downloads


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On the eve of possible holiday software updates tomorrow, and as I review the software releases portrayed in Post #1, it seems that the true pattern of software distribution may be less like an overly-simplistic schism of just two branches (see Scenario A in the imaginary diagram, below) as portrayed in Post #1, and perhaps more complicated (e.g., see purposely-exaggerated Scenario B, below). I’m just speculating without insider information, but separations and mergers of branches and sub-branches may occur due to national and regional regulations and to model-year hardware capabilities. And arbitrary management decisions (limiting the number or region of drivers testing a particular feature, for example) may also play a part.

Most pronounced is the obvious division between those (in the USA) testing (in red in the diagram below) and not testing (black) FSD Beta. After experiencing several FSD Beta versions it seems clear (to me) why Tesla could not and should not distribute FSD Beta to its entire customer base at this time. As I'm sure others have, I’ll re-state the obvious: in the wrong hands FSD Beta could and would be dangerous. (If anything, I wonder how it can be safely in use by as many test drivers as it apparently is.) Even after the safety score disappears from the Tesla App, are daily driving patterns still a factor in deciding when cars receive invitations to subsequent firmware updates?

But FSD aside, without access to all the facts and to Tesla’s operational plans, it can definitely be unclear (and hence frustrating) why certain cars seemingly advance through (non-FSD) software versions, while others do not. Is reliable, regular, extended access to healthy WiFi a factor? How critical is the computer hardware of the vehicle? How much of a part do governments play in determining who gets what? Also, keep in mind that some software versions offer few if any new features to particular models in particular areas. At the risk of stating the obvious, Tesla probably bypasses cars that just won't benefit.

In the long run I suspect that it is a cumulative combination of many general and specific factors that together determine whether a particular vehicle receives an invitation to upgrade its software at a particular time. Given the general factors--region, regulations, model, vehicle age, etc.--and Tesla's own internal management procedures, do we end up with a distribution pattern that looks somewhat more like Scenario B, below (with sub-branches and temporary "parking lots")?

Hypothetical Software-Version Distribution Patterns

Two hypothetical software distribution patterns.
Not shown: symbols (dots, circles, triangles, etc.)
on the lines indicating when software versions are
released in more-or-less sequential order over time
(flowing from top to bottom). The pattern in the table
in Post #1 looks most like Scenario A. I ponder here
whether something like Scenario B may be the more
accurate representation.​
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That's why I'm saying ya'll should keep emailing [email protected] and get them to fix this. I've sent them 3 emails over the past month. The more people we have complaining, the faster they will fix it. Not having live sentry and waypoints over some dumb bug is really starting to tick me off as well.
Oh the irony! I got the update to 44.6 but I'm out of town until the Dec 24th 😆. At least It'll be waiting for me, so that's awesome.


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Supporting Member
...the true pattern of software distribution...

An obvious problem with posting is that you normally can't edit (correct or add to) the contents of a post after a certain point. Therefore, here is a second (improved?) diagram that includes circles to represent hypothetical software updates (black for Production Builds and red for FSD-Beta updates) and arrow-heads to more clearly represent the sequential flow of time. (The distributions of software updates is totally made up, not factual.) See Post #81 for more details.

Diagram - 2.jpg

Two hypothetical distributions of firmware updates over
time for Production Builds (black) and FSD Beta Builds (red).
In Post #81 I suggest that something like pattern B may be more realistic.
Not shown: potential connections between black and red pathways.​
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...As always, if you have any successful ideas, please share.

A common issue I see in multiple TMC Forum threads and innumerable posts concerns the "failure" of a car to receive software updates. While waiting (impatiently, on Christmas Eve) to receive the big 2021.44.25.6 holiday software update (which ironically does not appear to be aimed at U.S. Model X FSD Beta testing cars), I thought I'd add some comments and tips about this subject to Post #1, above.


Supporting Member
Jan 24, 2013
SF Bay Area
Not sure whether the Safety Score disappears when you qualify for FSD, but we did tonight!! Won't try it out until tomorrow. We have version 10.8 which I think just rolled out. I didn't see my safety score just before I got it, but I was at 97 yesterday, and think I probably went up to 98 today. I would be surprised if I jumped up to 99, but that is possible, I suppose. Anyway, a great Christmas present from Elon.


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Supporting Member
02/05/2022 Comments
  • I was hoping to end updates to the OP (original post) when the Production and FSD Beta builds re-joined. But (like our wait for a mythical Tesla CCS1 adapter) that does not appear to be happening anytime soon.

  • I'll keep it going, if only my own use if no one else's, at least for as long as the TMC Forum software can handle the expanding tabular format.

  • In old Perry Mason TV episodes, that fictional master defense attorney with the amazing memory seemingly analyses complex murder mysteries in his head as (à la Sherlock Holmes) he talks to suspects, explores (and sometimes interferes with) crimes scenes, orders poor Della and Paul around mercilessly, and pieces together the facts to eventually solve the case (all in a taut 52 minutes). I'd definitely have to be more like the many other examples of (law enforcement and civilian) film characters developing complex "crazy walls"--i.e., I do better with visual analyses.

  • I note that anxiety and anger over failures to receive FSD Beta software (despite having (a) purchased or subscribed to increasingly expensive FSD and (b) maintained high safety scores) continues unabated on other threads. I had hoped that the tables in Post #1 would help readers better come to grips with why certain cars have or do not have FSD Beta testing software. I cannot say that that has happened. If you are in the category of (im)patiently waiting to become a tester, check this out: What if Your Car is Seemingly "Frozen" at a Particular Software Version?

  • Whether purposely or accidentally, Tesla has certainly created an interesting psychology of car ownership with expectations of ongoing car re-creation and revitalization through over-the-air software updates. I take it this is something that never happened before--i.e., Tesla is the first?
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