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TSLA BULL Echo Chamber

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by elasalle, Jan 20, 2017.

  1. elasalle

    elasalle Show me the M$$3

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  2. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    The primary question is whether all that volume will be enough to negate the drag from Solar City legacy business.
     
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  3. neroden

    neroden Happy Model S Owner

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    If this is the bull echo chamber... :)

    SCTY's legacy business is basically a big wad of cash flows which can be securitized to raise capital for expanding Tesla. :)

    Oh, plus installers for the Solar Roofs. :)
     
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  4. neroden

    neroden Happy Model S Owner

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    Anyway, from an investment perspective, the key point here is 300 megawatt-hours of deployment so far, as opposed to, um, zero at the end of the third quarter. About $128 million in revenue. I might dare guess that it's 6 cents per share in profit though that would be a wild guess.
     
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  5. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    Maybe a wild guess, but it really depends on Tesla battery cost and pricing, both of which are speculations right now. From watching other large installations I'd guess Tesla battery costs are probably pretty close to the lowest and getting lower. In practice at the moment their chief competitor is Samsung. Given that all this was zero a couple of years ago and that the utility/industrial level plants have worked well (except for that infamous Hawaiian lead-acid installation that caught fire a few times). I do not think it is unreasonable to imagine that Tesla could sell the 80 Gigawatt-hours of battery packs they have said they'd produce.

    The real problem here is probably not demand but pricing. Several of the recent deals have been under power purchase agreements which leaves the capital cost and performance risk just where the Solar City residential market has been, but vastly larger in scale.

    Right now there is the confluence of three factors: 1)much cheaper and more reliable batteries, 2) much cheaper, more efficient and reliable wind turbines and 3) much cheaper more reliable and efficient solar panels solar panels.

    SolarCity started a few years too soon probably, but now they are, in Tesla, catching a major wave. They can now deliver functioning integrated power plants using a combination of the above and deliver at or near the total costs of a new gas-fired plant. The more remote the demand is the more economically compelling.

    Without trying to speculate on the specifics of the prospective Tesla numbers I will be quite surprised if they do not have a profitable ex-SolarCity business in 2018.
     
  6. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    So SolarCity and AES are doing solar+battery PPAs in Kauai. SolarCity was at $145/MWh and two years later AES at $110/MWh. Part of what enables these PPA to reach such low prices so soon is that the cost of equipment is expected to decline from the time the deal is struck to when it must be purchased for installation.

    Hawaii is a prime market for this sort of solar plant that delivers most of its power after sunset. The island of Kauai has surplus solar during the day. So the only worthwhile way to add more solar is to store it.

    But not all power markets have this degree of solar penetration yet. California just has a few days in spring when solar must curtail production due to oversupply. So California is just starting to approach the point where all new utility solar should be matched with storage, but this will take several more years.

    Consider the possibility for a PPA that begins with 30 MW solar and 0 MWh batteries, but adds 30 MWh early each spring for the next four years. So within five years, you've got 30 MW solar paired with 120 MWh so that nearly all the solar power can be delivered after sunset. The advantage for the grid is locking in a pathway to more storage as solar penetration advances. Additionally there could be an option to accelerate the storage installation to handle unexpected needs like the storage leak and loss of natural gas supply in southern California. The advantage to the installer is that the cost of 30 MWh of storage should decline each year. So it should be possible to write such a PPA with very attractive initial prices. If Tesla were to strike deals like this, it would lock in battery production volumes for multiple years. In fact, the longer term view is that a certain volume batteries have to be replaced year to maintain performance. So a 25 year PPA entails a certain level of battery production volume for 20 years or so.

    So I think this sort of solar plus progressive storage could be an attractive product right now in many markets and give Tesla a steady production schedule.
     
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  7. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    I vaguely recall a Tesla engineer sharing at the Gigafactory opening party in late July that they were at 30 mWh then, so good acceleration.
     
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  8. mmd

    mmd Active Member

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    #8 mmd, Jan 27, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2017
    Wondering, how the author got to 300 mwh. The listed projects add up to ~150 mwh only.
    I guess, there could be tons of small projects making up the rest of 150 mwh installations. Has Tesla disclosed the total installed to this author or somewhere else?

    SCE 80 mwh
    Kaua'i 52 mwh
    Ta'u 6 mwh
    Kruger 3.1 mwh
    Marin college 3.2 mwh
    Fiji 2 mwh
    Stubhub 2 mwh
    La crea brewery 1.2 mwh
    Ocracoek island 1 mwh
    Dent Island 0.5 mwh
    Sierra nevada brewery 0.5 mwh
    Brea Mall 0.5 mwh
     
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  9. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    Don't forget, AMS has a deal with Tesla for 500 mWh of batteries (for 125 million) which it is deploying/selling:

    Irvine Company.............10 mW/ 60 mWh (not sure if this is 2015 or 2016)
    California State U...........2 mW/ 12 mWh (3 campuses--Marin is not part of this)
    Morgan Stanley..............0.5 mW/ 1 MWh (San Fran)
    Inland Empire Utilities....3.5 mW/ 7 mWh
    Irvine Water....................7mW/ 34 mWh

    (These are Tesla batteries, noted on their website) == Total = 114 mWh

    Also an agreement with Southern California Edison for 30 mW/ 200 mWh (I cannot confirm that these are Tesla batteries and not sure if the 80 mWh you had sited above is part of this).

    AMS also has an agreement with Invesco for additional 1.5 to 2 mWh of batteries in 2017

    There is another non-AMS contract in Sommerset England (Camborne Energy Storage?, from what I can garner, 5 mWh)

    I will have to research more to see if the Vermont/Green mountain utility project is TE as well.
     
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  10. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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  11. 3Victoria

    3Victoria Active Member

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    Just a wee niggling detail, capitlization makes a huge difference: mWh is milliWatt-hours ..
    You want to use MWh or MegaWatt-hours.

    Metric prefix - Wikipedia
     
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  12. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    Well, at least I got the Morgan Stanley building right!:)
     
  13. NannerAirCraft

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    Gaining Momentum with Tesla Powerpack

    This was on Oct 27 so I assume all the recent projects like SCE and Kaua'i weren't included in this total as they hadn't been deployed yet.
     
  14. neroden

    neroden Happy Model S Owner

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    I eagerly await the release of Q4 2016 revenue & profit numbers from Tesla Energy.

    I'm hoping they'll blow away analysts' expectations and leave Tesla showing a profit.
     
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  15. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    So finally had a chance to look at the Green Mountain Power site. They're advertising Tesla Powerwalls for their customers:

    TESLA Powerwall – Green Mountain Power

    also they've set up a large scale solar "farm" in Rutland. The website indicates they have 4 MW of battery storage, 4 MWH? Being an energy company I assume that wasn't a typo. So based on the other installs listed above:

    4 MW/ 24 MWh, I assume... (Calif State U was 2 MW/ 12 MWh)

    Solar Capital of New England - Green Mountain Power

    That brings the total with AMS (114 MWh), UK (5 MWh) and Green Mtn (24 MWh) to 143 MWh.

    Adding @mmd's 150 MWh, for a grand total of 293 MWh. Pretty close to 300 MWh.
     
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  16. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    Just noticed. Green Mountain Power has a lease option for 1.25/day for the Powerwall! That's 456.25 per year. Wow!
     
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  17. mmd

    mmd Active Member

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    Link? Is this including installation, and for how many years?
     
  18. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    TESLA Powerwall – Green Mountain Power

    Scroll to the bottom, there are options to

    1) purchase (buy for around 6.5k),
    2) purchase and share (buy for around 6.5k, and get 32 bucks/month),
    3) lease and share (do not get 32 bucks/month).

    "Share" looks like it means you are tied into the grid and GMP will be able to use your powerwall during peak times and you would contribute to the grid.

    Don't know about installation and how long. Didn't research it that much, since I don't live there... bummer don't have these options where I live...
     

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