TSLA Investor Discussions

[daniel]

... Makes me wonder about seeking alpha allowing such trash on its site.

Web sites purporting to tell you what companies to invest in are invariably nonsense. If the writers knew what companies to invest in, they'd be rich and would not need to work as writers. That's why the Motley Fool is garbage, while Planet Money is a great program. The former tells you where to invest your money; the latter presents stories illustrating concepts in economics.

The SA editors have requested that I start writing articles instead of commenting, but it just doesn't seem as much fun. Maybe I'll give it a shot.

If they've invited you to write articles, and if you have the time to do it, then you definitely should. You could counteract some of the FUD. I wouldn't even mention the doofus. I'd talk about the underlying economics of electric propulsion, sustainable energy, and the reduction of pollution.

 

[vfx]

... You could counteract some of the FUD. I wouldn't even mention the doofus. I'd talk about the underlying economics of electric propulsion, sustainable energy, and the reduction of pollution.

Agreed but remember, it's an investing site. No bashing of technologies or singling out companies that are disrupting the current paradigm, snippy insults to commenters, complaining to SA about stalking posters or bragging about your place of residence. It's an investing site.

 

[Lloyd]

One well written article with verifiable facts would undo an entire year of jp! You should do it right.

 

[Fr23shjive]

With the worries coming from the Greece and other European countries I wouldn't be surprised if they had a big impact on Tesla stock. Right now it's hoovering around $28, with all the bad news we've been getting from Europe I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop to mid-lower $20s.

 

[VolkerP]

If Greece keeps worrying you, why not raise some venture capital and buy it? You need $200b to cover the debts. The rest should be a bargain :tongue:
Serious: The Greek slowly realize that big change must happen to end that crisis. None of the established political parties is up for that job because they all fed on that corrupt feudal-like system for decades and the Newcomers have no viable agenda. No one knows a good solution (or it would have been implemented years ago).

 

[erha]

Looks like there will be some really good buy opportunities in the coming days. Unfortunately, I don't have any more money to invest. Actually, I start doubting that deliveries of the car will make the stock go up too much. I think we have to wait until Europe's economy is stable before we will see the stock raise

 

[Robert.Boston]

The first Model S delivered should help TSLA relative to the market. The trauma in Europe + weak job figures in US + sharp deceleration in China = bad news for the market. TSLA stock price generally tracks the market (which makes sense, given that the ability of people to buy new cars of any sort tracks economic well-being).

 

[Dragon]

It this keeps up I'll have to sell something to make money. And since I only have the Roadster as valuable item... I'll start with the winter tires, the cup holder for 2,50 $, then the soft top, following the brake system (don't need it).

 

[daniel]

Agreed but remember, it's an investing site. No bashing of technologies or singling out companies that are disrupting the current paradigm, snippy insults to commenters, complaining to SA about stalking posters or bragging about your place of residence. It's an investing site.

Which is why an article about the true value of electric propulsion and the management and engineering excellence at Tesla would be relevant for long-term investors looking for a company with real growth potential. There are speculators who consider themselves investors, who want to know how to make big money fast, and there are charlatans like the Motley Fool who pander to them; and there are people looking to invest for the long term, who want to know which industries are going to provide products people will buy in the future, and which companies are poised to meet those needs. You could provide solid information to the latter class of investors, and you could do it without bashing anyone or even mentioning the naysayers.

 

[TESLAficionado]

I got lately some shares at 28 and keep following it - I am in for the long run and will buy more if it drops further, wich would be a very good price imho.... my limit would be 2 more buy-ins with the same volume (with partly recapital. later on). The company is great and I do believe in what they do. Their products are well designed and quality materials are used (not many aluminium cars out there that do not rust). So for me this is a great investment oppurtunity.

Go TESLA!

 

[zack]

Got back in the moment it crossed the 80 and 200 day simple moving averages. I'll be watching it like a hawk, of course. It's not the 22nd yet. 8^D This is an incredibly volatile stock.

 

[Citizen-T]

Retested the 27.50ish level and held. I think this bodes well for the short-term.

 

[zack]

Got out at 28. It's not that good of a day in general. Fun to play, though!

 

[Fr23shjive]

Have any of you guys used Trefis.com?

How useful of a tool is website like that? I've never delved much into stock valuation but I've always wanted to. Seems like it would be a good tool to use to estimate earnings and stock valuation.

 

[joefee]

Have any of you guys used Trefis.com?

How useful of a tool is website like that? I've never delved much into stock valuation but I've always wanted to. Seems like it would be a good tool to use to estimate earnings and stock valuation.

Yes, I think Trefis has very good tools for stock valuation. I used their site to model TSLA at $54 per share next year. However …. you should not trade on my so so, do your own homework.

 

[vfx]

Yes, I think Trefis has very good tools for stock valuation. I used their site to model TSLA at $54 per share next year. However …. you should not trade on my so so, do your own homework.

A few things:

Gross margins improved in subsequent years, reaching 17% by 2010, primarily due to cost efficiencies, ​

vehicle options

(leather seats, carbon fiber interior, metallic paint etc.), and launch of the Roadster internationally.​

When the Tesla Roadster 1.0 was introduced in 2008, the battery cost ~$36,000 for a 53kWh capacity, equivalent to $680 per kWh. This fell to ~$472 per kWh for the Roadster 2.5 introduced in 2010.​

Batteries tend to wear out and need to be replaced after 3 to 4 years of use. This could be a huge cost burden for the consumer.​

• These factor may encourage consumers to purchase a car on lease instead of buying it outright.
• Leasing companies buy at wholesale prices, which will eat into Tesla's gross margins.

 

[daniel]

Yes, I think Trefis has very good tools for stock valuation. I used their site to model TSLA at $54 per share next year. However …. you should not trade on my so so, do your own homework.

Wunderlich said $42. Although stock analysts are notoriously unreliable, I suspect they're better than on-line tools run by a computer program. I think an 80% increase in value in one year is overly optimistic, though I do expect TSLA to rise gradually with the success of the Model S and successive models.

Or maybe I misunderstand and you're just getting raw data from Trefis and making your own extrapolation. But I still think that $54 in a year is overly optimistic.

 

[Citizen-T]

$54 in 12 months time is perfectly doable. There are tons of examples of super-high-growth companies that made these kinds of moves.

salesforce.com, inc.: NYSE:CRM quotes & news - Google Finance
Netflix, Inc.: NASDAQ:NFLX quotes & news - Google Finance
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc.: NASDAQ:GMCR quotes & news - Google Finance

Now, I'm not saying that this is going to happen with TSLA. Just that it is well within the realm of possibility.

 

[Mile Erlic]

This is my very crude valuation. The luxury car market in the US is about 1 Milion vehicles, about the same for luxury SUVs. BMW alone sells about a quarter million luxury sedans. Tesla predicts it will sell about 20k Model-S vehicles, and a year later add 15k Model-X. If wealthy woman in their 30s-60s really like this car, the numbers will be much larger, perhaps 100k very quickly. So if we take 30k vehicles at an average $70k, pe=20 and margin 20%, I get $8.4 Billion or $80 per share.

 

[daniel]

I'm not talking about what's possible, but rather what I expect. And I expect Wunderlich probably has a better handle on likely valuations than any of us. But I'll be delighted if you are right. If it is at $80 per share any time in 2013, come visit me in Spokane and I'll buy you lunch.