TSLA Investor Discussions

[Discoducky]

The world may never know...

I imagine you set a buy order at $33 and it executed at $33.05? Did you SWAG that number? I was looking for $32 based on 200 day moving average.

 

[Rifleman]

I just picked up a little bit more at $32.86. I'm happy

 

[Citizen-T]

I imagine you set a buy order at $33 and it executed at $33.05? Did you SWAG that number? I was looking for $32 based on 200 day moving average.

I set a buy order at $33.05, the market price was $33.04 at the time. I effectively wanted it for market price but never ever ever do market orders. And yes, it was an impulse buy. I didn't have a number in mind, it just felt right.

 

[dmckinstry]

I think it might be related to the SolarCity IPO - people selling Tesla shares to take advantage of the low price on SolarCity. As mentioned, volume isn't very high and the decline has been very gradual.

If you're talking about TSLA volume, a lot must have happened in the last two hours. Over 2.1 M volume for the day.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

On the way down already? Time to think about buying. Anyone have an opinion on how much farther we have to fall? I'm not sure yet.

LOL.. well that was fast. Triggered every sell order I set on Tuesday and took my TSLA position to zero. I had planned on a gradual sell off into what I hoped would be a continued updraft over the next couple of weeks. Instead, my triggers ended up selling off everything over about 8 minutes at around 9:40am ET.

I have no opinion on how far it'll fall. I always felt that the ~$28 I paid was a fair price, and thats what the big money on WS priced the stock at 2 months ago. In terms of potential it should be much higher, but the price becomes speculative and volatile once you move beyond the near term value of the company.

I am less concerned ATM about where it'll fall to in the next couple of weeks. TSLA was my mad money that I speculate with. At this point I am concerned with making prudent changes to the 2/3rds of my investments that I normally dont mess with because they are what I am counting on for retirement.

The potential for Republican brinkmanship and Democratic pushback on the debt ceiling has me feeling that the entire market is looking over exposed at this point. Plus, while Cap Gains are going to 21.2%, taxes on dividends are scheduled to go to the new top rate of 39.2%(!!). I support that (sorta), but it makes me think my big safe investments are about to be overvalued.

So at this point, I'm dusting off my matress and installing a nice, safe looking, comforter on it because I'm fixin to stuff a lot of money under it until I get clarity on tax policy and some resolution to the potential debt ceiling standoff.

 

[JRP3]

Do we have a thread for Solar City? I didn't see one at a quick glance.

I think there are two. Here's one: Solar City IPO - Page 3

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

I set a buy order at $33.05, the market price was $33.04 at the time. I effectively wanted it for market price but never ever ever do market orders. And yes, it was an impulse buy. I didn't have a number in mind, it just felt right.

Personally, I think thats a great price 3-6 months from now, which in a rational world means it should be a great price right now.

My issue is that I am a survivalist type, who literally drives around with a fair sized tool box and 2 cases of water, high density ration bricks and assorted other gear in the truck of my car. Just in case. I'll take a peek outta my bunker in a month or two and if the world still exists I'd probably be happy to pick up TSLA @ ~$33.

 

[CyberDutchie]

If you're talking about TSLA volume, a lot must have happened in the last two hours. Over 2.1 M volume for the day.

I wonder if a lot of people had limit buy orders at $33 that got executed today, like mine did. Looks like the downward trend stopped right at about $33, with the high volume right around that time. As long as it goes back up tomorrow, I'm happy. :biggrin:

 

[smorgasbord]

*sigh*, biggest one day drop since when? That fluke "executives are leaving" thing?

Sept 25, 2012 - not even 3 months ago: down 9.78%. Today down only 4.68%

That was when they announced they weren't going to 5000 cars this year. Remember now?

 

[ckessel]

Sept 25, 2012 - not even 3 months ago: down 9.78%. Today down only 4.68%

That was when they announced they weren't going to 5000 cars this year. Remember now?

Ah, yea, I actually flipped back to that area in the Google finance stuff, but the resolution of the stats gets poor as you go back so I couldn't tell if that was in one day.

 

[mitch672]

I think if you believe in TSLA long term, trading in and out of the stock doesn't buy you much.
If your buying and selling on small movements, long term you're more likely to be out than in, as you'll probably miss the small upward movements, and it will probably get away from you, longterm.

If there is a real short squeeze, and it moves $5-10 (or more) in a day or two, you might miss that selling opportunity and really kick yourself for being so shortsighted.

If TSLA is the next Google or Apple, I'd rather stay in it and it not sweat the smaller daily market movements (%5 is small for TSLA), it's just not worthwhile.

 

[ckessel]

If there is a real short squeeze, and it moves $5-10 (or more) in a day or two, you might miss that selling opportunity and really kick yourself for being so shortsighted.

This is sort of the holy grail, sought, but not yet found . Were it to happen, how fast will things move? I've read up on the VW squeeze, but I had a hard time finding detailed info on how the stock moved over the squeeze period.

 

[smorgasbord]

I've read up on the VW squeeze, but I had a hard time finding detailed info on how the stock moved over the squeeze period.

Here's a pretty good summary, written just a few days after the squeeze: http://www.economist.com/node/12523898

 

[kenliles]

W VW short squeeze will not happen with TSLA IMO. That was unique because of the massive single ownership of stock relative to short. With TSLA he short position is a large but less than VW % of e public owned float. As soon as the stock rises during a squeeze the selling will begin to accommodate. It already is Just read the sellers on this board selling at 35 levels. If it gets to 40 many will sell filling the short positions. Short will squeeze and bring the price higher, but no where near the VW example. It's only being used as an template for TSLa because both make cars - that's a mistake, they have no relation to each other. I too believe the squeeze will happen, but not at the VW levels. My guess is it may push and extra 20% out of the stock price. Remember the 'long short' will stay short and not cover believing that EV will simply not survive long term (starkly opposite of anything producing the VW short)

 

[mitch672]

Unless TSLA continues upwards at a slow and steady pace, reservations keep increasing, they must increase production, run a 2nd shift, etc. The shorts are paying interest on the money they are borrowing, eventually they MUST cover. Only a fool would let this get away from them. you see, TSLA might actually be successful, shocker, what would they do with a $40 TSLA, how about $50? How about they announce a dividend, or a split, stranger things have happened.. It will likely not happen until the lower cost 3rd gen model, but it could happen sooner. only a fool would bet against Elon & company long term.

 

[smorgasbord]

While Tesla paying a dividend is more than a long way off (I hold out no hope), I also agree that a VW-like short squeeze isn't going to happen. I think there are a number of high-conviction short sellers here that may even try to double down via options should Tesla get to $40 in the next 6 months (which, btw, I personally think is likely). It may take a run above $45 or $50 for the majority of shorts to cover - but some may wait until their brokerage forces them. The two ways to track this are:

1) Short interest as reported by NASDAQ twice a month.
2) Price of equivalently priced and dated Puts and Calls. Right now for a given strike price and date, Puts are more expensive than Calls. That's because there are more willing Put buyers than sellers. For instance, today a Jan 2014 Put cost $9.60 while a Jan 2014 Call cost only $5.36. Even at $32 (almost $2 less than the current stock price), the Put costs $1 more than the Call. (Chart here). That's an amazing indication of huge short interest.

 

[agelston]

Ok so I present tesla With fib extensions/retracements since earnings. Key Price levels. It's really been a textbook bull since earnings in terms of pullbacks/advancements.

Little current twitter chatter thrown in too.

Hourly Since Earings:
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen Shot 2012-12-15 at 2.20.19 AM.png

30m Recent:
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen Shot 2012-12-15 at 2.20.49 AM.png

5m:
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-15%20at%202.36.25%20AM.png

Sorry if the volume subgraph is imposing, personal preference.

Lemme know if there's anything else that anyone thinks is worth tracking down.

 

[agelston]

2) Price of equivalently priced and dated Puts and Calls. Right now for a given strike price and date, Puts are more expensive than Calls. That's because there are more willing Put buyers than sellers. For instance, today a Jan 2014 Put cost $9.60 while a Jan 2014 Call cost only $5.36. Even at $32 (almost $2 less than the current stock price), the Put costs $1 more than the Call. (Chart here). That's an amazing indication of huge short interest.

Yup Tesla violates put-call parity. Alot.

So much so that at a terrible afterhours bid/ask, I can still make an arbitrage trade at market prices.

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-15%20at%203.11.07%20AM.png

problem is that put-call parity assumes that the stock can be borrowed for the same interest rate as the risk free rate. and brokers charge alot more then .01% to short tesla shares.

 

[Citizen-T]

I think if you believe in TSLA long term, trading in and out of the stock doesn't buy you much.
If your buying and selling on small movements, long term you're more likely to be out than in, as you'll probably miss the small upward movements, and it will probably get away from you, longterm.

If there is a real short squeeze, and it moves $5-10 (or more) in a day or two, you might miss that selling opportunity and really kick yourself for being so shortsighted.

If TSLA is the next Google or Apple, I'd rather stay in it and it not sweat the smaller daily market movements (%5 is small for TSLA), it's just not worthwhile.

Your comments tell me that you don't actually understand how this strategy works. I wouldn't miss such a move, and in fact I would be even more exposed to it than had I just bought and forgot. That's the whole point.

 

[agelston]

Few Videos of Elon from the Solar City IPO Day. Mentions Tesla a bit. Can get his fiscal Cliff opinion too.

So much respect for him, need to find more ways to get Elon capital. Can't wait for Spacex.

Musk: SolarCity IPO Price Sought Wasn't Aggressive: Video - Bloomberg

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000135144

He steps up in the CNBC one when Rive 'can't hear'.

If your buying and selling on small movements, long term you're more likely to be out than in, as you'll probably miss the small upward movements, and it will probably get away from you, longterm.

If there is a real short squeeze, and it moves $5-10 (or more) in a day or two, you might miss that selling opportunity and really kick yourself for being so shortsighted.

Trailing stops work wonders. Limit Trailing Stops are the absolute solution to this problem though.

Basically a trailing stop is a stop order that adjusts based on the market price. So you could buy the stock here and put a trailing stop in for a 10% decline. Right now, your stop would be about 30.7 If Tesla rose to 40, your stop order would be at 36. Stop orders don't adjust down, only up. If we see some serious spiky action then they can be very useful, but don't normally let you 'time the top'.

Limit Trailing Stops would solve this problem completely though. The only difference between a limit tailing stop and a trailing stop is a limit trailing stop only gets activated at a certain price. So you set a limit price, once tesla stock reaches it, the trailing stop is activated.

So this is incredibly useful in capturing the entire 5-10$ move up. So, if you wanted to capture a quick >5 dollar move up, selling out at the top, you can actually place your orders. Buy the stock here, put in a limit trailing stop. Limit price at 40, trailing stop at 2% (will sell 2% from the top). If stock breakouts to 42, your stop price is 41.16. It could collapse back into the 30s, but you'd have sold off at that point. It could peak to 42 then pullback to 41 then move up to 100, but, if we get a move like that, it's generally fairly straight up and straight down. Most effective way of capturing tops i know.