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TSLA Investor Discussions
- Thread starter Fr23shjive
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CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
They probably got the 3400 number based on VIN reports. We know that's bad methodology though for a variety of reasons. Now we are likely to see a "disappointing" report from Tesla during the conference call.
Edit: Changed "Thud" to "They". Gotta love my when my iPhone decides to be mischievous
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Good point and thanks for the charts. Looks like about a 2 week time frame to (b)reach 36 from here if it follows past trend. That's going to put it just days from the feb 11 report. In a normal chart flow, your right it would pull back, but that's going to be a hard pullback k owing that report is close. Consider that it may not happen or if so to a much less extend. I actually hope there is one to add some LEAP positions. But without an actual market pullback (a definite possibility given the overbought we are in) it may not happen. Just sayin....
Thanks for posting your insights. And charting. Very helpful
Today is going to be fun. We were up 50 cents even before the opening. There is at least one article saying that Tesla is at full production. The article says it's just a rumor and mentions the TMC to incorrectly say that all of next years cars are sold.
Tesla’s Fremont Plant in California Runs at Full Capacity
Tesla’s Fremont Plant in California Runs at Full Capacity
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Oh such a quandry... I want to get more in, but am not sure the price is where I want it. My goals are two-fold. I am long on Tesla, but am also wanting to play smart and build profit to help with an X purchase. My cost basis is $33 so I would prefer to buy below that.
Do you think we'll dip below that again? I originally wanted to buy closer to $30, but I'm thinking that might be wishful thinking.
Would love any insight from those seasoned investors, especially being this close to a quarterly call, etc.
Disclaimer: No worry. I will not be taking anyone's word as gospel and making rash decisions. I always compile information and make an informed decision from there.
Do you think we'll dip below that again? I originally wanted to buy closer to $30, but I'm thinking that might be wishful thinking.
Would love any insight from those seasoned investors, especially being this close to a quarterly call, etc.
Disclaimer: No worry. I will not be taking anyone's word as gospel and making rash decisions. I always compile information and make an informed decision from there.
This is the start of a pre earnings run to mid 36s. post that entirely depends on earnings. confirmed by this mornings action.
buying now is a good idea.
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Its actually absurd how easy it is to chart Tesla.
Same Studies as yesterday, just the 1m ticks morning plus yesterday
Edit: Not seeing under 30 pre earnings. No way in Hell.
buying now is a good idea.
- - - Updated - - -
Its actually absurd how easy it is to chart Tesla.
Same Studies as yesterday, just the 1m ticks morning plus yesterday
Edit: Not seeing under 30 pre earnings. No way in Hell.
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Citizen-T
Active Member
Oh such a quandry... I want to get more in, but am not sure the price is where I want it. My goals are two-fold. I am long on Tesla, but am also wanting to play smart and build profit to help with an X purchase. My cost basis is $33 so I would prefer to buy below that.
Do you think we'll dip below that again? I originally wanted to buy closer to $30, but I'm thinking that might be wishful thinking.
Would love any insight from those seasoned investors, especially being this close to a quarterly call, etc.
Disclaimer: No worry. I will not be taking anyone's word as gospel and making rash decisions. I always compile information and make an informed decision from there.
The trick to having dual goals like this is to split your money (shares) into two camps. A portion that you hold for the long term, and a portion that you "play the game with".
Yup. I have my tesla lottery account. Aggressive options. 3k start. If it reaches 100k I buy a Model X.
so funny:smile:
Oh such a quandry... I want to get more in, but am not sure the price is where I want it. My goals are two-fold. I am long on Tesla, but am also wanting to play smart and build profit to help with an X purchase. My cost basis is $33 so I would prefer to buy below that.
Do you think we'll dip below that again? I originally wanted to buy closer to $30, but I'm thinking that might be wishful thinking.
Would love any insight from those seasoned investors, especially being this close to a quarterly call, etc.
Disclaimer: No worry. I will not be taking anyone's word as gospel and making rash decisions. I always compile information and make an informed decision from there.
I would prefer to buy at 27.5 today. Seriously I believe the shorts are starting to be concerned. They have to buy 25 million share in under 3 weeks. The price is not stopping at 36 as someone suggested. It will pick up even more momentum after it passes 36. I noticed that European buyers are now finalizing. They have surpassed the stated 400 unit/week goal. They are still stating 2 month delivery as reservations past 16xxx finalize. I am never adverse to trading but be wary to trade now may lose large upswing opportunityOh such a quandry... I want to get more in, but am not sure the price is where I want it. My goals are two-fold. I am long on Tesla, but am also wanting to play smart and build profit to help with an X purchase. My cost basis is $33 so I would prefer to buy below that.
Do you think we'll dip below that again? I originally wanted to buy closer to $30, but I'm thinking that might be wishful thinking.
Would love any insight from those seasoned investors, especially being this close to a quarterly call, etc.
Disclaimer: No worry. I will not be taking anyone's word as gospel and making rash decisions. I always compile information and make an informed decision from there.
Other thought would be inauguration speech question expect carbon tax now or even higher credit for electric. Thought Friday 3 million vol was option expiration but two days in a row of high volume. Curious about tomorrowHeard it before but I sure hope you are right
Thumper
Active Member
I am baffled. According to Interactive Charts Shorts went up again today. Do they not know the production rate and the reservation reservoir? Either they are badly informed or they are using altenative logic. Am I correct that the short analytics page is showing the percent of today's trades that were short not the cumulative short positions?
At this point they:
A. Somehow believe that Tesla is lying about everything or have rose colored glasses on.
B. Believe that the financial people can't do their job and don't understand how much profit can be made on the car.
C. History says that car companies fail - and so Tesla must fail.
D. Really haven't done their homework and listened to JP a little too much.
That's all I've got for why they're still holding out...
alephone
New Member
This chart only shows the percentage of sales that were short today. The overall percentage of float that is shorted could go down even when the former percentage goes up (for instance, if there are also a lot of shorts buying to cover). In the context of today's significant price increase on a relative lack of news, it makes sense that there would be a temporary increase in short sales.
Still short volume percentage was big today. I suspect its a blind reaction to add short on the print increase above $35. Otherwise seems really hard to rationalize
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
Everyone needs to realize that the conservative media in this country are still telling everyone who listens (roughly 30-40% of the country, and a much larger portion of investors) that Tesla is a dog and destined for failure. They are in a closed information loop, and the data that we see on how Tesla is largely past the point of danger (and well on the way to profitability), just doesn't penetrate.
It's nice to think that hardened Wall St. investors are immune to this, and tend to be data driven to survive, but in my experience its just not necessarily the case. I have many Wall St. media clients as customers, and almost to a person they were convinced that Romney was going to win, despite massive evidence that he was about to be crushed. If Fox News, and Rush Limbaugh and the Wall Street Journal are all assuring them that Tesla is a dog (which they are) then they will bet against the company because they believe it IS a dog, despite evidence staring them in the face.
We look at the recent story (Why you shouldnt invest in Tesla stock - John Shinals Tech Investor - MarketWatch) as obviously stupid and misinformed. But he is an actual reporter, and Marketwatch is one of the Wall Street Journal's main new media operations. That story was promoted as a "Top 10" story in December. As long as the conservative media machine keeps telling investors that Tesla is Solyndra, conservative investors will happily throw their money away on a short position that we all can see is nuts.
That's okay. If some people disconnect from reality, and bet their money on a fantasy, then other more rational people will benefit from their self-deception.
alephone
New Member
There are less inane people who believe that Tesla has unsound fundamentals.
I would encourage people to read this writeup on VIC: Member Login
(One needs to register with an email address to access it.)
This guy has a strong track record of calling shorts (GDOT, MOTR, SWSH, OCZ, BPZ, HDY). If you are long TSLA, the encouraging thing is that many of his criticisms are unfounded. Most importantly, he evaluates Tesla as if it were an entrenched car company and not a growth story. He acts as if their goal is to sell 20,000 cars/year in perpetuity (not just this year). He pretends that the operating expenses will remain $450M/year, as if they didn't just heavily invest in R&D for the Model S and a full production line. He complains about a reservation rate averaged out over a period of years before it was even clear whether the Model S would be a reality. He is troubled by "negative margins" in Q3. Etc.
While I disagree with most of what he writes, any investor in Tesla should be concerned with
- whether demand can be sustained (indeed, increased),
- risk of recall; Tesla does not have enough cash right now to make a big mistake,
- difficulty of achieving significant gross margins.
I suggest people sit down and try to justify Tesla's current 4B market cap to themselves. There is a highly non-trivial amount of growth already baked into the current price. Even if one suspects just a moderate chance of a significant misstep, this could make it rational to short the stock. Not all the short sellers are crazy ideologues. They might share your model with just a few probabilities going the wrong direction.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
There is also probably some reaction to the Dreamliner/lithium FUD that is starting to spread. The anti-EV crowd is predictably jumping on this to spread bad information and further their agenda.
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