TSLA Investor Discussions

[Doug_G]

Discussions about the NYT article have been moved to NYT article: Stalled on the EV Highway - Page 25

Getting just a wee bit off topic for this thread!

-mod

 

[hobbes]

New short interest numbers are out: Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com
After going down for two and a half months, absolute number of shares sold short went up again!

Anyone got an idea why?

 

[kenliles]

Test post
Been having trouble with pages being listed but not showing. Sorry for the interruption

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Test post
Been having trouble with pages being listed but not showing. Sorry for the interruption

That's because Doug_G has been doing some housecleaning and moving posts. It takes a bit for the page index to be rebuilt correctly.

 

[kenliles]

Ahhhh. Makes sense. Thx gg

@hobbes. Guessing its just a reaction to the price run-up giving shorts a better entry

 

[smorgasbord]

After going down for two and a half months, absolute number of shares sold short went up again!

Anyone got an idea why?

The higher TSLA's stock price goes, the more profitable it potentially becomes to enter a short position. Just as some here are waiting for a pull-back in the share price to enter a long position, shorters are getting in now to be able to buy back their shares later at a cheaper price on the dip - if not a total meltdown.

 

[PureAmps]

Earnings call on Feb 20th after market close.

That's good news that it is *after* the market closes. Maybe Elon will actually be awake for the conference call this time. Last quarter, when they did it *before* the market opened it sounded like his coffee hadn't quite kicked in yet.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

I'm either excited or worried about the Delivery buttons people are getting tonight.

My reservation #13850 made in November and finalized on the first day I could, 1/11/13, Delivery button received 1/28, has a delivery window of Feb 28-March 14th for my P85.

I saw someone else (hershey101) posted they got their (#18278) delivery button tonight. They Made their reservation on 1/14/13, Finalize button 2/4, Delivery button today 2/10, with a Delivery window of March 13-27.

So their window overlaps mine, even though we are almost 5000 reservations apart.

Does this mean there are a LOT of cancellations, or Tesla is pumping out cars at an enormous rate, or...??

Yes, that was starting to freak me out too despite the fact that I totally buy into the idea that there are some large segments of the order base that aren't even being manufactured yet. I also dislike how dead the Model S reservation tally seems to be lately, along with the negative GDP growth we experienced in Q4, and the looming likelihood that the Sequester will nuke growth going forward.

Sure, the GDP number will likely be revised up, but the lack of good news, and the continuing support to the high cancellation rate hypothesis are kinda freaking me out a little. I did my profit taking on Friday so I'm inoculated against any near term adverse movement, but I'm a Tesla booster and am lusting after some good news.

 

[KD5MDK]

It's a good point and generally true, and certainly true when looking at a software drive business;
but not so much when the technology disrupts in a way to alter the manufacturing capital itself.

Intel is an example. Certainly a capital intensive industry, but they used technology to drive that cost per u it way down and then leveraged it to become the standard used by the industry. Tesla may not achieve that level of success, but that's exactly what they are driving to become. Much of this because of the vision of Elon, to not only change the industry itself (even selling to his competitors as the standard), but his focus on actually changing the manufacturing capital structure, deploying manufacturing design technology within the product design cycle. A big Part of the 'gotcha' he's investing in changes how a car is manufactured and sold, producing misjudge nets by current industry investors about the level of capital required. Using today's technology , the Capital no longer represents the same Intensity to achieve scalable volumes. He's doing precisely the same with SpaceX. Brilliant really and a testament to Elon and the team he's building

I'm not sure I agree with the magnitude of the difference. Intel is extremely capital intensive, but the marginal cost for them is miniscule. There is plenty of opportunity for lean manufacturing, direct to consumer sales, greater customizability, software over hardware, etc to give Tesla massive competitive advantages over existing automakers, but I don't see where they are going to have greater margin than other hardware manufacturers. DE, CAT, HPQ, CSCO, etc all build things. Tesla does have a lot of advantages in terms of corporate focus, growing maturity in handling issues, plenty of factory capacity to add before they run up against limits on their facilities, I love the business model. I just think there is a rational cap on how their stock should be valued until it can be proven that their sales really will break out into the mass market in a business where marginal cost of goods sold is such a high proportion of the total product.

 

[firstinflite]

Sure, the GDP number will likely be revised up, but the lack of good news, and the continuing support to the high cancellation rate hypothesis are kinda freaking me out a little. I did my profit taking on Friday so I'm inoculated against any near term adverse movement, but I'm a Tesla booster and am lusting after some good news.

Keep in mind that TESLA hasnt started production on the 60 and 40Kwh models yet; which may also contribute to numbers being skipped. Remember that most deliveries are for the 85Kwh model..... also, don't allow posters to get into your head about their theories as many are trying to buy TESLA cheaper if there is a selloff. Just look at the market today, from $39 dropped to $37.50 and shares were bought up almost immediately.....

I dont know if any of you guys ever owned businesses or were in any form of high end retail? But its usually very slow after Christmas as a grip load of money has been spent during the holidays buying gifts, jewelry, partying, family vacations, etc..... however, generally speaking, it begins to pick up towards march as more and more people anticipate getting a refund check from filing taxes, which equates to more individual spending. After 10 years of retail and selling high end goods, this is what I've experienced, any thoughts? Again, we're in retail and TESLA afterall is working on Phase 1 expansion, so relax and be patient.

 

[Citizen-T]

I'm not sure I agree with the magnitude of the difference. Intel is extremely capital intensive, but the marginal cost for them is miniscule. There is plenty of opportunity for lean manufacturing, direct to consumer sales, greater customizability, software over hardware, etc to give Tesla massive competitive advantages over existing automakers, but I don't see where they are going to have greater margin than other hardware manufacturers. DE, CAT, HPQ, CSCO, etc all build things. Tesla does have a lot of advantages in terms of corporate focus, growing maturity in handling issues, plenty of factory capacity to add before they run up against limits on their facilities, I love the business model. I just think there is a rational cap on how their stock should be valued until it can be proven that their sales really will break out into the mass market in a business where marginal cost of goods sold is such a high proportion of the total product.

Elon would fault you for reasoning by analogy instead of working from first principals. Lol

 

[Norbert]

I just think there is a rational cap on how their stock should be valued until it can be proven that their sales really will break out into the mass market in a business where marginal cost of goods sold is such a high proportion of the total product.

Once it is proven, the share price will already have gone up. Or? Major factors should be innovation and design, growth potential for (good) electric cars with improving battery tech, and dedication to cost-effectiveness as also seen at SpaceX.

 

[JRP3]

Keep in mind that TESLA hasnt started production on the 60 and 40Kwh models yet

Eh? A number of people have already gotten their 60 kWh cars.

 

[aznt1217]

here is the pullback you smart guys have been wishing for lol

 

[tomanik]

here is the pullback you smart guys have been wishing for lol

Yes now the question of when to jump back in though.

- - - Updated - - -

here is the pullback you smart guys have been wishing for lol

Yes now the question of when to jump back in though.

 

[agelston]

This was not the pullback. This was the test before the pullback (the pullback will be when the market is also weak)

 

[Citizen-T]

This is not the pullback I've been waiting for. Talk to me if/when we see $36.

 

[kenliles]

ditto- I keep long LEAPS (J14,15) regardless;
Sold some Mar13 Calls in the $38.5 area for good profit for a pullback to $36 area- where I'll add both J15 and some shorter term cycle trade stuff-
wouldn't mind getting that pullback before report next wednesday

 

[sp4rk]

My concern is that ... if TSLA had great news to share, would they not be frothing at the mouth to have their earnings call yesterday??? What are they waiting for?

To me, no news is not good news and couple that with the ridiculous NYT story.

All I can now say (as opposed to last week) is that now I've driven one for 3 1/2 days, I cannot see anything but positive news? But who am I?

 

[bonnie]

This is not the pullback I've been waiting for. Talk to me if/when we see $36.

Exactly. Patience is the toughest part.