TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[bdy0627]

Did anyone here get some stock at under 293 today?

I added but not until it had recovered to the upper 290s. Based upon past experience, I'm wary of trying to add until strong support shows up.I have found it can be much cheaper to miss the bottom but still add at a great price level.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Oh, and by the way, this is what the stock price did after the Model S was introduced in late 2012, and production ramp through 1Q2013. When the positive 1Q results were released, watch out! I don't expect quite such a dramatic price rise this time (the stock is much more well known now), but who knows. For the record, I don't think the 2Q report due early August will the catalyst, I think it'll be the 3Q report in early November that'll move the needle.

 

[trils0n]

All this negative press DOES affect buying behavior, and the shorts are absolutely trying to bankrupt Tesla. Remember the NYT Broder debacle in early 2013? Just as the Model S production was ramping up, some well publicized negative articles hit and it ABSOLUTELY affected Tesla sales.

Since it has been many years my memory is kind of fuzzy, but in either an interview or conference call, cannot remember which, sometime in 2014 perhaps, I remember Elon mentioning it took over a year for the order rate in the northeast US to come back to pre-Broder levels. Was a very damaging article.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

This weekend might have marked the climax of Max FUD for Tesla. The share price low today may eventually be dubbed the "Higgins Bottom".

Increasingly likely that the market actually starts to acquire an immunity to it. I hope they bring it, at FUDicrous levels. It'll be all the more obvious!

 

[jhm]

Tomorrow's WSJ Headline

Tesla stock hit by report of flat tire
Tesla stock fell by more than 10% after a Model S got stranded on I-5 with a flat tire. The Model S from Mr. John Johnson suffered a major malfunction as a bold punctured his front tire on the I-5 near Bellingham WA. Contrary to other cars Tesla's don't carry spare tires but rely on mobile service units to get the tire fixed. However, in this case it took more than 15 minutes for the mobile Tesla unit to arrive. This made Mr. Johnson ten minutes late for his sales appointment. According to Tesla specialist Mark. B. Spiegel -- Mr. Johnson filed a complaint with NTSB and intent to sue Tesla for damages including a lost sales contract. Mr. Johnson and Tesla were not available for a comment.

It is unclear whether Autopilot was engaged and contributed to the flat tire.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

If you want to feel better today, listen to Ben Sullins respond to the horrible hit piece by Maureen Callahan in the New York Post. He does a fantastic job.

Dan

 

[Cosmacelf]

Since it has been many years my memory is kind of fuzzy, but in either an interview or conference call, cannot remember which, sometime in 2014 perhaps, I remember Elon mentioning it took over a year for the order rate in the northeast US to come back to pre-Broder levels. Was a very damaging article.

Yeah, you'd have to do some actual research to figure out what the real catalysts were for the 2013 share price rocket. IIRC, the Model S got a car of the year accolade around 1Q, 2Q 2013 and that helped a lot. I suspect we will see a bunch of positive Model 3 reviews in the next 6 months which should similarly improve sentiment. I do know that A LOT of people are waiting for the short range $35K car though. And leasing.

 

[Curt Renz]

Hallelujah!

Now will the WSJ post a retraction on the initial speculative BS? Of course not, that would be admitting their journalistic ineptitude.

Dan

If Higgins does update his article with the latest Tesla response, he'll deserve a brief salute. If not, ...

 

[gluu]

Uh, no. I'm specifically referring to bid/asks in thinly traded stocks where they sat for, I am not kidding, hours, before being front-run.

Sale of order flow exists solely to provide information used for front-running. Why do you think anyone would pay for order flow? Normally you'd *charge* for order flow.


No, it's not.


Being front-run in a stock with big spreads and high volatility doesn't prevent my order from getting filled, it just means I might get a slightly worse deal.

The front-running has a small effect compared to ordinary volatility when you have high real volume and high volatility. It doesn't amount to much in stocks like TSLA. It does in low-volume stocks where I really noticed it.


Or front-run me themselves, or resell the data for front-running. :sigh:


You just said they're front-running, if you read what you wrote. :sigh:

I think you've really confused yourself on what front-running means. I suggest you review the definition and legal terms. If you think internalization is front-running, then you trading 1 share of TSLA with your friend at the nbbo bid is also front running. This is obviously ludicrous. Internalizers pay for your order flow because you have no market impact and are thus paying them the bid/ask spread in fees, not because they want to front-run you, they want you to self-identify that they won't lose money trading with you.

Also, creating your own definition of what HFT is and isn't doesn't make it any more true, and is frankly preposterous.

 

[jhm]

Didn't Elon once say that he should invest in satire. Perhaps we should start one.

Possible Names:

Uncle Fudger
Onion of the Financial World
Daily Colon ;

 

[oneday]

Didn't Elon once say that he should invest in satire. Perhaps we should start one.

Possible Names:

Uncle Fudger
Onion of the Financial World
Daily Colon ;

Wall Street Urinal

 

[msvoyager]

In case someone missed it. Here is some much need counter weight to this "refund request" FUD:
Tesla says it did not ask suppliers for cash back

 

[wipster]

Careful...you might just see this. Although there would have to be a line in there stating that the tire was on AutoPilot at the time. Then Tesla would have to come up with some statement to justify themselves.

Dan

Also it sparked an electrical fire in the D cell battery in the flashlight that was used to look at the tire. Tesla has not provided comment on this fire.

 

[ZachShahan]

Oh, and by the way, this is what the stock price did after the Model S was introduced in late 2012, and production ramp through 1Q2013. When the positive 1Q results were released, watch out! I don't expect quite such a dramatic price rise this time (the stock is much more well known now), but who knows. For the record, I don't think the 2Q report due early August will the catalyst, I think it'll be the 3Q report in early November that'll move the needle.

View attachment 319485

Totally agree. Reminds me a lot of that period. Q3 report should be the biggie, imho. Until then, who knows — roller coaster.

Back then, there was probably much more expectation that Tesla would fail, and also not nearly as much big money invested into a clearly innovative, competent, financially wise company. That said, once Tesla reports clear success in the Model 3 ramp and profitability, I assume the big money managers will be eager to ride a big new wave and will pour more money in.

Just my thoughts. But this is the only "big-picture view" that makes complete sense to me.

 

[CorneliusXX]

A lot of that doom may already be priced in

But they still have to price in gloom. That's got be worth 20 bucks.

 

[schonelucht]

I've actually done that on contracts for stuff for me personally -- if the contractor delivered late or it wasn't up to snuff, I asked for a rebate. Usually got it.

When you did so , did you beg under the pretwnse that ‘continued operation’ of your company depends on it (basically pay up or we go bankrupt) or did you simply sent a list of shortcomings and invoke the relevant clause in the purchase contract? Honestly, being on both ends of that kind of transactions, it was always the latter.

 

[schonelucht]

It is absolutely 100% clear from what Musk wrote that they are NOT asking for rebates on work with final acceptance.

On the contrary. It’s clear to me that they are.

 

[MP3Mike]

Thanks for sharing. Is there any more substance to this claim that can be shared? Feel free to DM me if you have it but don't want to share publicly.

We have two people on Twitter claiming that Elon called his boss who then forced him to delete the Twitter account:

 

[ggr]

Mod: posts about Montana Skeptic moved to Doxxing discussion out of Market Action . Please take all followup there. --ggr.

 

[Cosmacelf]

We have two people on Twitter claiming that Elon called his boss who then forced him to delete the Twitter account:

View attachment 319535

Awesome! Nice to see Elon fighting back. Go Elon!