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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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all i know is, while it’s nice to have those lying @$$holes on twitter on their heels for a second or two, it’s not going to significantly decrease the negative mainstream press, and will have 0 affect on stock price.

we’ll know more when the big boys step in and decide whether or not a bad Q2 is baked into price.

this may happen before or after earnings. or it may have already happened.
the implied 1 day move on tsla over the last 6 qtrs is about 7%

5 of last 6 price % swings have been negative swings (these are 1 day moves - doesn’t include rebounds obv)

bloomberg terminal - but i can’t post the screen for obv reasons
 
Breaking news from WSJ:

A memo to WSJ corporate ad clients detailed the dire financial situation the newspaper is in.

"We are retroactively increasing all your fees for this year's ad spend. That includes ads and stealth ads hidden as opinion pieces or informational pieces. We appreciate your cooperation in your continued investment in our relationship. As our failure will mean millions of stories unheard and justice unserved."

When inquired by about said memo. The spokesman for the paper has this to say:

"This is a one time only event as we do not forsee any future price increases. Necessary steps have already been taken to sack the lead journalists and hire highschool dropouts. The synergy with the new types of journalist will be incredible since the new wolrd order no longer requires journalistic integrity."

Note:if you haven't realized this is satire. Shame on you.
 
Dear neroden,

If it is not deemed too much of a digression, I would much appreciate your view on the impact high frequency trading has on the stock market and its actors.

Thank you.

In the context of this thread, I'm also curious what you/others think of it in relation to TSLA. I assume the massive dip on Apr 2 came from all of the news headlines about Tesla Bankwuptcy and this sort of trading. But don't know much about it or how it relates to less drastic Tesla news.
 
Tomorrow's WSJ Headline

Tesla stock hit by report of flat tire
Tesla stock fell by more than 10% after a Model S got stranded on I-5 with a flat tire. The Model S from Mr. John Johnson suffered a major malfunction as a bold punctured his front tire on the I-5 near Bellingham WA. Contrary to other cars Tesla's don't carry spare tires but rely on mobile service units to get the tire fixed. However, in this case it took more than 15 minutes for the mobile Tesla unit to arrive. This made Mr. Johnson ten minutes late for his sales appointment. According to Tesla specialist Mark. B. Spiegel -- Mr. Johnson filed a complaint with NTSB and intent to sue Tesla for damages including a lost sales contract. Mr. Johnson and Tesla were not available for a comment.
No need to wait till tomorrow.
Tesla slams into 2 adjacent businesses at Newport Beach strip mall
 
Fixed it for ya.

I will concede that “Faux” News and the WSJ have done more than their part to spread FUD, but the Liberal media has arguably done the same and worse.

I remind people that it was the New York Times that ran the Broder hit piece on Model S. CNBC airs hit piece after hit piece, and gives unfettered voice to scum like Lynette Lopez. The Guardian, another Liberal rag, publishes relentless attacks against Tesla at every turn. Just today they posted screaming headlines about the supplier contract negotiations. The article is easy to Google. I won’t post it here and give them another avenue to more clicks.

Where Tesla is concerned, IMO, much of the mainstream lying Liberal media has its own agenda, and one that is not friendly to Tesla.
 
I will concede that “Faux” News and the WSJ have done more than their part to spread FUD, but the Liberal media has arguably done the same and worse.

I remind people that it was the New York Times that ran the Broder hit piece on Model S. CNBC airs hit piece after hit piece, and gives unfettered voice to scum like Lynette Lopez. The Guardian, another Liberal rag, publishes relentless attacks against Tesla at every turn. Just today they posted screaming headlines about the supplier contract negotiations. The article is easy to Google. I won’t post it here and give them another avenue to more clicks.

Where Tesla is concerned, IMO, much of the mainstream lying Liberal media has its own agenda, and one that is not friendly to Tesla.
But really is it helpful to repeatably call out the “liberal” media? Of course almost all media is concerned about and want’s eyeballs. It is not news that there is a liberal or conservative bias in the news. To me we should point out false hoods and perhaps refrain from labeling so much.

Of course you may have a different opinion.
 
Did this article really cause the AH price to drop by $8.05: Cost to insure Tesla's debt rises on growing default fears

Insurance on Tesla's debt, which is sold as a credit default swap contract, increased from Friday by 13 cents to $5.96 per $100 of Tesla debt. That followed a Wall Street Journal report on Sunday that Tesla had turned to some suppliers for a refund of previously made payments in a bid to make a profit, citing a memo sent by a Tesla global supply manager.

Edit: I know AH is volatile... And I see it has come back up to only down $1.34...
 
But really is it helpful to repeatably call out the “liberal” media? Of course almost all media is concerned about and want’s eyeballs. It is not news that there is a liberal or conservative bias in the news. To me we should point out false hoods and perhaps refrain from labeling so much.

Of course you may have a different opinion.

My reason for calling these organizations out is that they generally purport to want to stop or mitigate climate change, but hypocritically attack a company that is pushing the hardest and risking everything to give people a chance to solve the problem.

The Conservative media is at least honest about where they stand on the issue and isn’t being a lying backstabber on Climate Change, even if they are generally wrong IMO in denying the problem.

Public media is really the only news I trust these days. I know that others here distrust NPR, but at least they aren’t purposely being lying backstabbers like The NY Times.
 
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I will concede that “Faux” News and the WSJ have done more than their part to spread FUD, but the Liberal media has arguably done the same and worse.

I remind people that it was the New York Times that ran the Broder hit piece on Model S. CNBC airs hit piece after hit piece, and gives unfettered voice to scum like Lynette Lopez. The Guardian, another Liberal rag, publishes relentless attacks against Tesla at every turn. Just today they posted screaming headlines about the supplier contract negotiations. The article is easy to Google. I won’t post it here and give them another avenue to more clicks.

Where Tesla is concerned, IMO, much of the mainstream lying Liberal media has its own agenda, and one that is not friendly to Tesla.
I am as right wing as they come...well, that's not true, more of a Libertarian lean, but these stories specific to Tesla are common across the board. Left, right, conservative, liberal...doesn't matter. Lies are lies. Deceipt is deceipt. This company is getting it from all sides.

Dan
 
My reason for calling these organizations out is that they generally purport to want to stop or mitigate climate change, but hypocritically attack a company that is pushing the hardest and risking everything to give people a chance to solve the problem.

The Conservative media is at least honest about where they stand on the issue and isn’t being a lying backstabber on Climate Change, even if they are generally wrong IMO in denying the problem.

Public media is really the only news I trust these days. I know that others here distrust NPR, but at least they aren’t purposely being lying backstabbers like The NY Times.
I am not sure I would call being almost completely wrong on climate change being honest.
The Murdock empire has been pretty consistently wrong about that.

If you mean honest in the sense they are true to what the owners want then ...yeah I guess so.
 
I will concede that “Faux” News and the WSJ have done more than their part to spread FUD, but the Liberal media has arguably done the same and worse.

I remind people that it was the New York Times that ran the Broder hit piece on Model S. CNBC airs hit piece after hit piece, and gives unfettered voice to scum like Lynette Lopez. The Guardian, another Liberal rag, publishes relentless attacks against Tesla at every turn. Just today they posted screaming headlines about the supplier contract negotiations. The article is easy to Google. I won’t post it here and give them another avenue to more clicks.

Where Tesla is concerned, IMO, much of the mainstream lying Liberal media has its own agenda, and one that is not friendly to Tesla.
The vast majority of the "liberal" media is only liberal in relative terms. Establishment / pro status quo media would be a better label ...
 
I hate to be a "traitor" (temporarily), but I think in the very short term (~2 weeks), I'm going to bet against TSLA's stock price.

My reasoning is largely macro. Even though Tesla is in an excellent position starting Q3, I believe the combination of the following reasons will drive Tesla's stock price down in the near term:

1. Bad Q2 earnings report with large losses from the 5k rush + preparation for Q3 profits
2. Rocky macros from Trump vs Iran and potentially large scale tariffs with China
3. Peak FUD from shorts as this is their last attempt to drive down prices
4. Historical earnings reaction has been negative. Plus, the stock is recently driven down hard despite extremely positive news of hitting 5k/week. Therefore I believe even a Q2 surprise will still result in a drop in stock price.

To be clear to the shorts: I am bearish on Tesla's very near term stock price, but a big bull on Tesla as a company. I hope this is the only time I have to bet against Tesla's SP.

I'm now a bull between today and Q2 earnings.
But really is it helpful to repeatably call out the “liberal” media? Of course almost all media is concerned about and want’s eyeballs. It is not news that there is a liberal or conservative bias in the news. To me we should point out false hoods and perhaps refrain from labeling so much.

Of course you may have a different opinion.

Tesla is in a unique position to have enemies in both the conservative and liberal media.
 
I agree with this but I think Tesla may not have their best resources at this task yet as they are still production constraint, at the same time wants to sell high margin P models first. Maybe they will ramp up on educating the mass once they have the $35k car produced.

Of course it's still wishful thinking from my side.

And people don't speak about Camry's 0-60 because it sucks. The reliability and fuel efficiency side apparently win the battal. For Tesla to win the same reliability battle we need time. People need to see how ten years old Tesla cars hold up in large numbers. That is the time when large amount of Toyota owners make their switch.

A couple of thoughts from this weekend ...

I have two family members who are both on the list for Model 3s, one is in his 40's and the other is in her 70's. I was talking to both over the weekend as they were mulling over their decision to go through with the purchase and both had comments that I found curious. Timeline, quality and tax incentives were the main issues .... since they are both interested in the extended range batteries I told them the timeline is pretty short at this point, from what I understand the web shows 1-3 months and people are reporting getting their cars sooner than that. The bigger issue is quality, both had concerns which I think are totally unfounded .... they asked what I thought .... I don't have one but I know people that do and I've yet to hear anything less than stellar reviews from those that own the car ... in addition the reviews from various publications speak volumes about how great the Model 3 is. I sent both of them the WSJ review of the performance model and while they are not interested in that model I believe it should alleviate any concerns regarding build quality. Finally both were pretty unsure about the tax credits as to how much and how they are applied, now IMHO they should be better informed if they bothered to put $1k down on the car, I would think they would be following the progress and learning everything they can but alas they did not and I can imagine there are many more like them. My conclusion is that Tesla needs to do a MUCH better job educating their potential buyers ... at least have a "Tax Credit" tab on the website that allows you to put in your delivery zip to see what you are entitled to get. Put some of the reviews on the site ... and get more specific about the models for lay persons ... what they do a good job of is telling everyone what 0-60 speed is .... many of us (including myself) could really give a crap about that. It's fast enough.

Elon wants the model 3 to be a car for the masses, well then promote what the masses care about. Does anyone know what 0-60 in a Toyota Camry is like ? NO because no one who buys one cares. HOW about test drives available at EVERY location .... the masses are not used to buying a car without the test drive. Now you can say these people put money down and they are ready but in my experience many people will be nervous about placing the actual order without driving the car which is what you are asking as test drives for Model 3 are not readily available, I'm sure in this case having my relatives take a test drive would seal the deal. It's beyond stupid not to at least have the test drives for those that have been on the waiting list .... I'd have 2-3 model3s at every location and hire a small staff just to do test drives .... period. Yes I understand they don't need to "sell" the car at this point but I do think they need to close the deal with people on the list and this is a big deal for those who don't follow the companies every move like many on this forum do.

I think Tesla is so concerned with manufacturing that they are dropping the ball in terms of marketing , even when an Apple product is not ready it is in the store for people to get their hands on and play with as this helps build excitement and solidify purchase decisions. Finally, there is a lot of bull$#@$ with this company in terms of press and the internet ... every crash, fire and problem is magnified to a very unfair level as we all know ... having great product demos in stores (test drives) will really go a long way ....

BTW, I just signed up for a model 3 test drive .... let's see how long it takes. I'm betting I'll get one pretty quick because I live in Burbank and there is a Tesla store right here which I hear is stocked with Model3s but many around the country will not have it so easy.
 
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