TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Starno]

TSLA getting trounced today.

 

[uselesslogin]

I have worked in a large manufacturing facility where we had all the machines brought in from Germany. Ok, it was not automobile manufacturing, but still, high-tech precision, high speed manufacturing. Huge production floor about the size of 22 football fields, many dozens of large machines. All German built. Shipped from Germany and re-assembled and setup right on our production floor.

We had German engineers on site for months helping us get the machines ready for high speed production. The last German engineer probably left after a year. It can take a LONG time to properly setup, calibrate, test, test again, validate, debug, troubleshoot, etc... these complex machines. Test production runs, fix, repeat, etc...you get the picture.

Even if today they can do it faster/better, it could still take a month or two (minimum) to get the line up to full operating speed, probably longer. I would safely estimate 3-4 months at least, probably.

Anyone who says 3-4 weeks is probably on the very high-end of "optimistic"

Yeah FWIW not even reading the thread today - but 'almost done' in Germany - it will be in Nevada in March. I'm sure it will. But at this point I consider 2,500/week by the end of June a success. I'm not really expecting my car this year. I hope I'm being overly pessimistic but back in 2013 we were talking +$10 EPS for 2017. We are at -$11 EPS. I'm honestly surprised the stock is staying as high as it is.

 

[EnergyMax]

If the German automation line were done, it would already be shipping to the GF. I agree on June at earliest for actual deployment and reaching 2500/week.

 

[DragonWatch]

DieselGate or whatever flashy name it goes by in the news, as well as the monkey gas chamber testing really should have an impact on the average consumer's conscience. The fact that it doesn't, based on the lack of public outcry, shows how distanced IMHO we have become regarding corporations and our health/safety.

@DragonWatch Cannon Cocker/String Puller duly noted.

Humm, well I have fired 105, 155 and been around 8" cannons, my biggest was an HE Lance Missile and then MLRS rockets. So, I think I like "Rocket Man." Cannons are so yesterday I almost, notice the word "almost," would liked to have been the guy in the space suit seated in the Roadster playing "Space Oddity" by Jim Bowie. While I am a has been Major, my first or user friendly name is not Tom Though I guess MajorTS could work, you know as opposed to my BS

Your point is well taken above. We now live in an environment where we have become numb to all the communication. To the point that today's drop is almost painless. I/we in tactical operations in 1983 noted, as digital intranets (not Internets) expanded, our targeting data grew exponentially to a point of non-action. While my MLRS launchers could swivel and dance firing twelve rockets at twelve different targets within a matter of seconds, once you got to number twelve, it was time to reload. That surge was unsustainable. So, lesson learned, we as humans cannot sustain a prolonged surge in information. At some point the system or we will crash.

Even Monday's stock downer was blamed on AI/computer intelligence in some circles. . .

Today, while possibly coming back from the abyss, everything I watch is red ~ very red. Am I scared, no ~ but today would be a fantastic day to be riding in Elon's Roadster heading towards Mar's listing to Space Oddity. Now, if I could flip the red toggle cover, and then the toggle switch to fire the BFR; that would be the coolest Okay, they probably just have the computer flip the switch (I forgot, is that an "0" or a "1")

Bottom line, it is not just TSLA dragging things down or is that :-( today?

 

[Yggdrasill]

If the German automation line were done, it would already be shipping to the GF. I agree on June at earliest for actual deployment and reaching 2500/week.

Judging by the descriptions of the semi-automatic lines on the conference call, I think 2500/week could be reached in June *without* the new automated lines...

 

[elasalle]

Down macro day is worst day to second-guess Tesla woes. Let the dust settle a bit on the macros.
With that said, best might be to still close weeklies, and calls till June, July

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I'm liking that forum i striking very reasonable, somber, pessimistic note today. Bodes well for the SP. Or, have I blocked out too many cheerleaders?
I am not blind to the risks though, and I'm ok to revisit $310, $280, and $250, should the dice fall that way

 

[Zaxxon]

Well, I bought a bit at $325. We shall see...

Am I the only one that finds the irony in Jon McNeill leaving Tesla to become Lyft's COO, when what I think Tesla could really super-seriously use is a COO?

 

[Sean Wagner]

Judging by the descriptions of the semi-automatic lines on the conference call, I think 2500/week could be reached in June *without* the new automated lines...

And the only smart way forward when you're constantly paying for machinery capable of building half a million cars per year clearly is to proceed simultaneously with both the established and new lines [which we know can easily be set back by a month or three].

 

[Yggdrasill]

I couldn't hold myself back anymore. Added ~7% to my position at 321.2.

 

[Bobbyducati]

glad i am only sitting on 300 puts i wrote earlier this week. Otherwise id be having a pretty bad week. Curious what tomorrow brings.

 

[johnnybgood888]

I assume that those complaining are generally people who want a minimally priced Model 3 and currently own a car that is getting old and developing problems. Of course some of those expressing frustration may actually be short sellers pretending to be reservation holders. The Model 3 that unhappy folks want would be the version with minimal profit margin for the company. Shareholders should be pleased that versions with higher profit margins are getting priority. That has long been Tesla's general procedure, which makes sense and should not be surprising.

Meanwhile, complaints are not being heard from the horde of Model 3 reservation holders like me who are more than willing to wait. My current car has only been driven for 25,000 miles and is free of problems. I am happy that others are essentially serving as Model 3 beta testers. A longer wait means any necessary corrections will be made and advanced improvements will likely be added before my Model 3 is delivered.

I suspect that most of those unhappy with the delay will eventually buy a Tesla car, even if they temporarily buy something else to replace their current car. Indeed it may be wise for those folks to maintain their Model 3 reservations, and the large majority of them may do so despite frustration being expressed today.

I agree with Curt and a few others who have already said that as shareholders, we should be happy that Tesla are maximizing their GM and profits when cash influx are most needed, and also when they have way more demand than they can fill.

Those who are unhappy waiting for the base model suffers, unfortunately, but that is a choice they made when they plonked their reservation money almost 2 years ago sight unseen. They are surely free to give up their reservations now, but I am quite sure that as soon as the $35k model is available, demand will again skyrocket and easily backfill the reservations lost now.

We all knew this was going to come, that there will be a lot less tolerance for delays and bugs for a mass model 3. But I'm glad that Elon has decided to ensure that bugs and issues are minimal (as per all the reviews of the car that are currently out), at the expense of delivering the car on time, as opposed to the other way around.

 

[Curt Renz]

Down macro day is worst day to second-guess Tesla woes. Let the dust settle a bit on the macros.
With that said, best might be to still close weeklies, and calls till June, July

Although unusual for me, I owned some TSLA calls until a week ago when I sold them at a profit. Options premiums are ridiculously high right now due to the market’s extreme volatility. I would not consider owning options until the premiums settle down. With shares there are no worries about premium erosion or being caught out of the money on expiration day. We long-term shareholders can more easily endure downturns and patiently wait for the uptrend to resume.

 

[Tenable]

If we dont hold 321.54 our next support level is 311.20

 

[johnnybgood888]

Just a comment regarding the delivery estimates. I’m from Toronto and my estimate actually was pulled in. Originally it was late 2018. Now it says mid 2018. With the slower production ramp, perhaps they are now evaluating delivery options to maximize the US EV credit and not hit the 200k units in the US. Sucks for those in the US, but I’m ecstatic that there’s a remote chance of getting mine in <6 months!!

Yeah, I'm in Toronto here and saw the same this morning in My Tesla page. Unfortunately, I would almost prefer for it to be delayed till Early 2019, as I have probably lost the equivalent of 3 Model 3's in the stock market the last 6 months. Not sure if I can close a new car in the middle of this year financially speaking

 

[Matias]

Judging by the descriptions of the semi-automatic lines on the conference call, I think 2500/week could be reached in June *without* the new automated lines...

If they can do 2500/week with the current line, why are they not doing it?

 

[Quassinoid]

Tesla changing the world to EV will take time, longer than some T$SLA investors may have patients for, but it will happen - it is happening! Breath easy and enjoy the ride!

 

[Yggdrasill]

If they can do 2500/week with the current line, why are they not doing it?

We're not talking about a line. By what Tesla says, they have three original automated lines, which suck, and then they have added a lot of semi-automatic workstations. The semi-automatic assembly accounts for over half of the current production (if I interpret their statements correctly). Tesla says they can scale the semi-automatic assembly rapidly, and they probably are adding capacity. Scaling this up will take *some* time, but it would certainly become a top priority if the Grohmann lines don't work as expected.

 

[Bobbyducati]

when will it end...

 

[JRP3]

4:00 PM