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Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Nope, it's not worthless, I just don't think it has as much value as you attribute it too.
They were leaders, but since divorcing from MobilEye, Tesla needed to redevelop lots of the same technology, and it has been slow and excruciating progress.
I'm not convinced that they have anything more than usual suspect Mobileye etc, yet, value of that tech is rapidly dropping and I think they're quite a bit behind Google. Now, I think they're still well positioned to succeed and be on the forefront, but that whole effort has turned out much messier than I expected.
I feel jury would be out on how much value there was, should they spin it out. Few $B sure, but $14B? I highly doubt it... But then, Tesla is worth more than the sum of its parts, so this is not how I would prefer to evaluate it.
I hope this makes sense. I just felt you're taking for granted something (AP value) that's arguable, hope that's helpful...
I strongly agree. My AAPL position has been hugely rewarding for me, while most of my colleagues were seeing AAPL go into Chapter 11 following the Scully years. For obscure reasons I thought they would regain their vision, although I was quite nervous when Tim Cook took over. Even then knowing Cook was a master of detail at a critical time I suspected it would work out and doubled down. Now I no longer add to my AAPL position but the dividends alone give me a nice living.
Through all that the FUDsters have been consistent harbingers of doom. An old friend and AAPL hater told me two weeks ago that AAPL had peaked, that ApplePay was a disaster, the iPhone X a technical and sales horror, Apple Music was a major failure plus a few other points. All wrong, repeatedly so, but updated failure stories never seem to end.
Because the FUD for TSLA is similarly ill-informed I am confident this wild ride will be as rewarding as has been AAPL and AMZN (another FUDsters delight). I do believe strongly in Ben Graham's approach, which does require very careful examination of facts. To view TSLA has a high value-based decision one needs to examine buyer loyalty, marketing costs, repeat sales and GM. One also must know enough about accounting to adjust GAAP in a high-growth situation to steady state results. That last aspect kept me sane during the long evolution of both AAPL and AMZN although I took too little risk on the latter because I completely underestimated the resilience of that business model as books, in their physical form, have nearly died.
TSLA has so many unique advantages that are ignored by fudsters that I remain completely confident. Those are, more or less in order:
-the direct sales model;
-the advance ordering model (i.e. quite small inventory for sale);
-over-the air updates;
-Supercharging network;
-owner loyalty (repeat sales, referrals, word of mouth)
-Not last, but critical, mastery of social media and cultivation of owner participation.
Ben Graham knew sustainable value even though the technologies of his day were different. He, and Warren Buffet, will not invest in something they think they do not understand.
With AMZN, AAPL and TSLA we all need to understand the cultural and financial impact of the internet.
Those characteristics are shared by AMZN, AAPL and TSLA as they apply to their spheres of influence.
Other models are wildly successful without the extreme emotional attachment to the company that these three share. These really do stand out.
Of course GOOG and many others have some of those features, but they do not have the degree of financial investment by customers that those three do.
these are the wildcards that I've always said make buying and selling the stock more unpredictable-and IMHO interesting. Getting another entity to buy 10% of the company, randomly and unpredictably is always a factor. not to mention the Elon Musk PUT that is always present and not in the normal calculus done by analysts.
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
HG, thanks I needed that article today
From personal experience, yes, there is a difference between a BMW showroom and say, Tesla ~ really, no kidding. There is even a big difference between a BMW showroom in Heidelberg (Germany) vs Seattle (USA). We bought our second Volvo through a dealer in Heidelberg with no showroom, no examples, and no internet (1990). Could have taken a free trip to pick the car up at the factory, but I was too self important to afford myself the time off. I made eleven international trips that year between the USA pentagon and the European pentagon. Oh, and the 960 was a new style so my V8 was a bit slow off the assembly line:-( Lost a lot of frequent flier miles though because someone shorted PanAm. FYI ~ I still managed to score 300 (max) on both my semiannual physical fitness tests within days of two of those flights.If I wanted a message chair like readily available in our local Toyota showroom; well I would buy one ~ do not have one and will probably die without one. Toyota even has a barista. In Seattle, the showroom has the basics, cables all over the place instead of fossil fuel fumes ~ gotta keep them cars charged you know. Two or three doors down there is a Starbucks, you know, spreading the wealth by buying a coffee so I could test out the cup holders in my future Model X. The whole reason for going into the showroom was actually a battle of the bands. My wife really wanted the Model S, and I was convinced the X was the right choice. She also was having a financial crisis since I was trading in our Prius and Tacoma for a car that cost 4.333333 times more than our first house back in 1975 in Fullerton, California. And, the color ~ she wanted gun metal gray and I wanted the blue (a tad bit better than what our Prius was). I won, so the dealership experience was fantastic ~ we received our blue Model X at the last possible point in time for last years end of 2Q17 ~ as you may recall SP won too.
Today, I still wear Levi blue jeans, sadly not made in the USA, my ride in the Model X is like driving on a cloud (cloud 10, at my age) and any seat in the car is as good as any leather message chair out there! Our daughter is afraid to drive it even though she expects to inherit it ~ joke is on her, we will probably trade it in for a newer version down the road, oops, did I say trade-in; I meant hand-me-down to the daughter. We might go back into a showroom then if there is a driving need to check out the new bells and whistles
Otherwise, I’ll order it on line and skip the showroom all together. Do not fret, I had my own WiFi secure Intranet back in 1983 ~ did not sell or buy things, just fire missions and command and control. Kind of like Twitter today ~ you may have heard of itSo, that is my personal take on Tesla showroom experience USA style
Oh, and the GrandPups (6 & 8) were bragging that they saw a Model 3 during their camping trip last weekend; I really need to get out more
bdy0627
Active Member
Makes sense. The other side of the equation is the shorts, who are almost certainly all in right now. Why would they not be, given that they expect a virtual slam dunk horrible ER. If all of the shorts are in going into the ER, how many new shorts will be coming in after? Much more likely that bulls enter in high numbers after the ER than shorts. Now, if we do dip significantly, it may take a few days for the stock to bottom, which is when I would expect bulls to jump back in with large numbers. Bulls are not going to want to jump back in while a dip is in process since the whole point of waiting out the ER is to avoid going down with the stock temporarily.
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
gavine
Petrol Head turned EV Enthusiast
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Yup, that's the place! I grew up in Canandaigua. Beautiful town in the heart of the finger lakes.
Dan
Did she leave because of the stormy weather?
MartinAustin
Active Member
Free supercharging extended to the Performance AWD Model 3. At first this might seem like they're acknowledging a softening of demand. However I believe they always offered free supercharging to Model S when the minimum price was $69,000, so offering it to a car that starts at $64,000 isn't that much of a change. Plus, the $64,000 Model 3 is one of the most profitable products in Tesla's entire product range, so perhaps it shouldn't be a surprise to see them give it this mild push.
Hmmm, TSLA dipping back into the red. There is still a fair number of analysts and interested parties making negative noise today, despite the din re: AAPL. They are certainly running out of chances to affect the stock using their traditional theories. I think a sub-$300 price is a great place to be if the news is unexpectedly good. Also, a great place to be if the news isn't unexpectedly good! TSLA usually shows a great deal of resilience below $300 and especially below $280.
Hmmm, TSLA dipping back into the red. There is still a fair number of analysts and interested parties making negative noise today, despite the din re: AAPL. They are certainly running out of chances to affect the stock using their traditional theories. I think a sub-$300 price is a great place to be if the news is unexpectedly good. Also, a great place to be if the news isn't unexpectedly good! TSLA usually shows a great deal of resilience below $300 and especially below $280.
You cant downgrade to sell if its already sell. So change to hold a day before then mark it SELLLLLL
The HW is not interesting--it will iterate quickly as is does and even Tesla is not that vertically integrated yet, so they will be buying from the same sensor vendors and process vendors everyone else has access too. The SW Tesla creates is somewhat more difficult to build, but eventually that can be replicated and there are no shortage of start-ups and grad students working on this--its an advantage/differentiator today, but finite. The crown jewels is the data being collected that will feed the machine learning underpinning all these systems. Waymo just announced 8 million miles driven (and data collected). Researchers suggest Tesla is at ~1.2B miles on active autopilot. Both companies appear to have an advantage today and the rate at which they are adding to their data sets is accelerating. This is an advantage that is hard to overcome for a new entrant.
Perfectly logical. P is a $11k premium over AWD, and it appears that the actual cost to Tesla for this option is very little - that it's mainly just a batching and software change over standard AWD. Let's say that free supercharging only upsells high mileage customers - say, 20k miles per year with 10k spent supercharging on highways, or whatnot, and uses 250Wh/mi. So Tesla is giving up, say, $0,24 * 0,25 * 10000 = $600 per year· That's not a very expensive subsidy to tempt people toward paying an $11k premium (or a $15k premium for those not getting AWD). For an "average" P owner it might be more like a $300/yr cost to Tesla. Also, most of these costs (by far) are backloaded, which is exactly the sort of expenses a rapidly growing company wants.
jelloslug
Active Member
Considering that it was basically added retroactively, I cannot see how it's much of an indication.
Yup, back before Supercharging was included with every car, it was included in the price of the P85 and S85 and a $2,500 option on the S60--another enticement to upsell folks into the more profitable models.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
ValueAnalyst on Twitter
In just three months, @Tesla Model 3 will become the top selling sedan in the United States, ahead of @Toyota Camry:
Current Market Cap:
$TSLA: $53B
Toyota: $200B
Current Enterprise Value:
$TSLA: $60B
Toyota: $325B
Investing is not that difficult.
#NotSellingAShareBefore1000
Camry sales plunged more than 22 percent in July.
Toyota Motor North America Reports U.S. Sales for July 2018 | Corporate
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