TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Dan Detweiler]

Down about $4 in pre market action.

Well...at least it's never boring with Tesla stock! Let's see if the rally continues from last week or if the bears front another attack.

Dan

 

[sundaymorning]

BMW 5 series continues to be mired by fire issues:

[Editorial] Punitive damage regime should be strengthened for BMW fires

BMW korea:

BMW apologizes after engine fires in South Korea prompt recalls

S. Korea to launch probe into BMW over alleged delayed recall

BMW Fires Deal Blow to German Luxury Carmakers

Transport ministry advises BMW 520d owners to refrain from driving over possible engine fire

 

[HG Wells]

BMW 5 series continues to be mired by fire issues:

[Editorial] Punitive damage regime should be strengthened for BMW fires

BMW korea:

BMW apologizes after engine fires in South Korea prompt recalls

S. Korea to launch probe into BMW over alleged delayed recall

BMW Fires Deal Blow to German Luxury Carmakers

Transport ministry advises BMW 520d owners to refrain from driving over possible engine fire

Those are all electric cars RIGHT ? /S

 

[Dan Detweiler]

BMW 5 series continues to be mired by fire issues:

[Editorial] Punitive damage regime should be strengthened for BMW fires

BMW korea:

BMW apologizes after engine fires in South Korea prompt recalls

S. Korea to launch probe into BMW over alleged delayed recall

BMW Fires Deal Blow to German Luxury Carmakers

Transport ministry advises BMW 520d owners to refrain from driving over possible engine fire

Hmmm...20 reported fires. Wonder why this is the first we've heard of it?

Oh wait, I know. It's because they didn't involve a Tesla. Sorry, should have known better...silly me.

Dan

 

[neroden]

So it looks like the bear raid started in premarket today.

 

[brian45011]

So it looks like the bear raid started in premarket today.

Some of it might be about year over year comparisons using the new revenue recognition standard for RVGs

tsla-10q_20180630.htm

 

[lklundin]

Hey, maybe Tesla will wait for BMW to close down a line or two and hey can get another cheap factory! LOL

You kid (somewhat), but Opel closed their Bochum mega-factory in 2014, and as far as I know only parts of it is in use now, by the DHL/German Post service as a distribution hub. I have to imagine Tesla wished they could have gone on for a few more years, so they could have bought it around now. Opel has another (smaller) factory in Eisenach and one in Kaiserslautern, both are currently at risk of closing. The location of Kaiserslautern could satisfy Musk's required proximity to France + Benelux. VW's factory in Leipzig may close next year. A range of German auto makers will have to reduce production in the coming months, due to the emissions scandal. Throw in the introduction of the Model 3 in Europe and some of these may have to close.

I may be digressing here, but the far right (party AfD) is basically reformulating the now 100-year-old stab-in-the-back-myth to describe how the EU and the Greens and other unpatriotic forces are killing the German (auto) industry, thus endangering the "welfare state" (not a derogatory term in the EU) with their emissions regulation and rush into the inadequate BEVs, see
Produktions-Stopp: EU killt deutsche Autoindustrie
(The Google translation is pretty much readable).
Edit PS. "killt" is a rare imported word, used when English speaking allies took out German WW2 forces.

 

[neroden]

Never attribute relatively small, smooth intra-day market movements to news. It's essentially never due to news of any sort.

The effects of news are either gigantic jumps/drops with a large gap (like the gap after the earnings report) or long, multi-week phenomena.

 

[neroden]

Some of it might be about year over year comparisons using the new revenue recognition standard for RVGs

tsla-10q_20180630.htm

I doubt this had any effect on market action, but I must say that the new revenue recognition standard makes the books *much* more readable and they reflect reality a lot better.

I'm looking through the other GAAP accounting changes: looks like all future solar leases starting in Jan 1, 2019 will *not be accounted for as leases*. That will be interesting. Taking this over to General Discussion.

 

[Unpilot]

And we are green

 

[Runarbt]

And we are green

my guess: new ath this week.

today? up a few % then down to slightly green.

 

[Unpilot]

I kind of like the idea of a relentless slow squeeze.

 

[gora321]

Who will push SP up more? First shorters or conservative longs? or?

 

[TrendTrader007]

007‏ @TrendTrader007
$TSLA added tons of J19 $680s

 

[Runarbt]

Who will push SP up more? First shorters or conservative longs? or?

longs.. short will join at 450 is my guess

 

[Unpilot]

longs.. short will join at 450 is my guess

I thought 360 was some type of tipping point.

 

[LoveTSLA]

my guess: new ath this week.

today? up a few % then down to slightly green.

It will be much more greener...

 

[jbih]

S/X seem to be more or less balanced with regards to supply and demand.

I expect the next iteration of S and X to be so much better than the current models that the demand will go way up. They will probably also offer even larger battery pack sizes and thus range currently unavailable to the Model 3 and other brands, giving them a unique selling proposition.

 

[KarenRei]

I kind of like the idea of a relentless slow squeeze.

I think it needs something to kickstart it; the shorts still seem to believe that the margins are fictional, volumes will be low and SG&A will eat any gains. The >16% leap from the Q2 report was a good start, but what's the next step? I could imagine that the Bloomberg tracker might do the trick to shatter their production volume illusions; it looks nicer and nicer every day (although they need to update their VIN graph!)

 

[bhtooefr]

I thought Musk already said that 100 kWh was the limit for the S/X?

In any case, I wouldn't expect any major changes for the refresh, just the interior - the second generation S/X, OTOH, I'd expect it to adopt lessons learned from the Model 3, and gain parts commonality with it where appropriate.