TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[renim]

That needs a bit of context. Current grid mix is 58% coal and the growth going forward is almost exclusively in renewables:

上半年全社会用电量同比增长9.4% _ 滚动新闻 _中国政府网

China's coal imports surge in July - Xinhua | English.news.cn

ok so the reality is about 60%

100,000*0.6*(25/100)*15,000 = a neat 225,000,000 kWh
so 225 GWh per 100k EVs
(for context, this year China could sell close to 1,000,000 plug in car vehicles, + commercial vehicles with even more battery + more battery cycling.)

so yes, Tesla is great for coal, on a global basis

 

[Ocelot]

What apology are you thanking me for? I expressed sympathy for your loss only. You do NOT derisk by paying those premiums. During that extra time things can drive the price down as well as drive it up. Only looking at potential positive events and ignoring negative events in your logic is wrong thinking. Other events recalls, strikes, recession, war, a company releasing a superior or cheaper product can all produced the same effect but you did not consider these?

Sorry, my mistake. Thanks for expressing sympathy towards my losses.

As for the risk, I see your point. However, specifically for Tesla at this specific point in time , I felt having time cushion for the pros of two consecutive quarters of profit, and a maximized production rate heavily outweighed most possible negatives. The earliest we would of known those things was feb 2019. As you are aware, just because you have the time there..,does not mean you have to use it, and can sell reclaiming part of your time premium.

 

[kelly]

I wonder if David Tamberrino is sad that he's no longer able to "analyze" Tesla. For awhile there he got 5 minutes of Internet fame as the guy that Elon called a "bonehead" on the earnings call. Now's he's back to being a boring analyst who is ranked #4,646 out of 4,857 analysts on TipRanks.

Wasn't it Toni Sacconaghi and not Tamberrino?

'Boring, bonehead' questions
Sanford Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi: "And so where specifically will you be in terms of capital requirements?"

Musk: "Excuse me. Next. Boring, bonehead questions are not cool. Next?"

 

[Fact Checking]

Can we go back to wondering how many Model 3s are being produced per week?

One thing that still seems a mystery is the low Q3 guidance of Model 3 production of 50-55k - which suggests a manufacturing rate of 3,850-4,230/week - well below 5k/week sustained.

Is this:

• Due to the Panasonic cell manufacturing bottleneck at the Gigafactory?
• Due to a planned shotdown in Q3 for upgrades, which would lower the rate?
• Or is it simply conservative guidance they expect to beat? (Which would be a first for Tesla, so color me sceptical ...)

 

[Ugliest1]

Yeah, yeah pile on the disagrees Musk lovers... I'm long Tsla but he is not wise in his corporate communications. I'd be happy if he proved the shorts wrong by just working hard and making M 3's profitably. That will kill the shorts off in the long run.

The thing I most disagree with is the armchair quarterbacking. He’s human. He’s going to make mistakes. But overall, he’s got a lot more positive-result decisions behind him than mistakes. A lot.

What have all the armchair quarterbacks done for the world lately?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

One thing that still seems a mystery is the low Q3 guidance of Model 3 production of 50-55k - which suggests a manufacturing rate of 3,850-4,230/week - well below 5k/week sustained.

Is this:

• Due to the Panasonic cell manufacturing bottleneck at the Gigafactory?
• Due to a planned shotdown in Q3 for upgrades, which would lower the rate?
• Or is it simply conservative guidance they expect to beat? (Which would be a first for Tesla, so color me sceptical ...)

I feel that's reasonable guidance, not low. Reasons:
- lines were down for vacations/holidays/break until July 5th, and it took until July 6th or 7th to fully ramp back numbers. Those are 5 days you don't get back, i.e. 3500 you don't produce
- factory was averaging just over 4000 the rest of the days in July. Yes, it peaked over 5000/week few days, but most days were low 4000, with few under 4000, AFAIK
- while ramping continues, at this point slope (of the growth curve/line) is much less aggressive, hence it's not easy to raise average significantly with much greater production in the last month
- Panasonic has issues ramping up, or rather, they will need to invest more by the end of the year to satisfy Tesla's need for both cars and the storage batteries. I can't (and will not) dig out articles that made me think this, but my conclusion was that Panasonic was able to produce batteries for around 4000 cars a week at the end of Q2, and anything more, they need to pillage (i.e stop and reconfigure lines bc. different chemistry) storage battery capacity.

 

[Ugliest1]

I agree it seems like more than simple public-mindedness at this point. Mr. Tripp seems to have a grudge against Tesla for the way they treated him. Today's tweets appear to be more about retribution than public safety.

You see “retribution”, I see a disgruntled poor or mediocre employee resorting to falsehoods. Nice spin though making it sound like Tesla was at fault first. Not your first time doing that.

 

[phil0909]

You see “retribution”, I see a disgruntled poor or mediocre employee resorting to falsehoods.

The two perspectives are not contradictory - both may be correct. I have no interest in the quality of Mr. Tripp's work as a Tesla employee, but the truth or falsity of his information is very important.

You seem awfully concerned about spin. I'm more interested in the facts, at least the important ones. It's clear that Musk and Tripp have a beef with each other, as they are suing each other. I have zero interest in who was at fault 'first'. Can't imagine why you care either.

 

[SPadival]

Yes, well worth reading this twitter string. For those that don’t know Andrea, she used to be the smartest and most correct Tesla analyst before she went off to do something else.

You mean thread

Thread by @AndreaSJames

 

[Matias]

What have all the armchair quarterbacks done for the world lately?

This is investor discussion. At least to me. To me it does not matter, whether CEO is Mother Teresa or not.

 

[30seconds]

I’m going to apologize first. No way can I keep up with this thread anymore.

But, as far as I can tell the last week has;

Shown that the case for Tesla going private has strengthened since Elon’s tweet even if the first notice was confusing and possible problematic.

People love the Model3

Scaling production & deliveries remain a problem, although now we all agree it’s in the 4-6k range

Elon has somewhat of a celebrity lifestyle

SpaceX. wow. If you haven’t been following SpaceX then I’m going to question you Tesla investment in either long or short directions.

MORE massive PowerPack installations reshaping Australian power markets

New transport via tunnels in Chicago & LA

An entirely new ground up chipset production for neural networks

And a bunch of people who look at the above and about Fraud because they either are jealous or lack the imagination of the above.

 

[Moderatefan]

New transport via tunnels in Chicago & LA

This is not Tesla related though.

 

[Moderatefan]

• The negative SEC news that a certain big market participant was insider trading on for the last ~7 days is now public knowledge.

What? Didn't see any news on the subject...

I believe there are a lot of investors on the sidelines that have been scared away by the shorts, and a lot of events/forces that might activate them:

• better Q3 results,

Most likely...Besides the usual hardcore investors (which surprisingly started divesting in Q2), for others it may be very important to see some good results (which has not happened for a while) before they entrust their money to Elon.
So, we may see significantly more buying only after Q3. Which could be an important deadline for majority of shorts to exit by.

BTW. since bears/shorts seem to have at least one mole at the SEC, I believe the main goal of the "SEC probe" is not to get any "conviction" (a single freshman lawyer could make any charges against Elon to be laughed out of court), but:

• To create a well timed negative news cycle with drip-drip leaks about SEC investigation of Tesla,
• to create uncertainty about the going-private deal in the hope of making it fail due to lack of investor support,
• to set the stage for further regulatory and legal attacks against the deal,
• to subpoena highly confidential documents about the going-private negotiations, to use the information to perform insider trading, and/or to selectively release any portions that can be spun in a Tesla-negative way.

Given these points, I am convinced the SEC will investigate their mole and leaker of privileged information which enabled insider trading and market manipulation - all of which are serious felonies that often result in jail sentences and disbarment.

Just kidding!

It's obviously much more important for the SEC to investigate whether Elon tweeting to millions of investors who all receive it within a split second is legal public disclosure, and to investigate whether the belief of Elon that funding is "secured" for one of the hottest new companies on Earth, from Saudis who flew to Elon last year to convince him to allow them in, was an accurate word to use.

Are you saying SEC is taken over by shorts and FUDsters?

One thing that still seems a mystery is the low Q3 guidance of Model 3 production of 50-55k - which suggests a manufacturing rate of 3,850-4,230/week - well below 5k/week sustained.

I think we should be used to the fact that announcement of the new production target reached does not mean Tesla is sustaining that number right now... It means Tesla will sustain it 3 months later. Meanwhile, they will be stopping/tuning/iterating and producing at a much lower volume. This happens pretty consistently with each production target.

 

[oneday]

This is not Tesla related though.

Uhhhh, yes, it is.

Tesla will be building the skates.

 

[RobStark]

Tim Cook, Larry Page, Sergei Brin, Bill Gates, ...

One of these is not like the other.

Tim is not a billionaire.

Dude is only worth ~$625M.

Tim is only relevant in this discussion insofar as he controls Apple's purse strings.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Wealth inequality in this world sure is sane when we start saying someone has "only" $625 million

 

[loky]

I wonder if David Tamberrino is sad that he's no longer able to "analyze" Tesla. For awhile there he got 5 minutes of Internet fame as the guy that Elon called a "bonehead" on the earnings call. Now's he's back to being a boring analyst who is ranked #4,646 out of 4,857 analysts on TipRanks.

That "annalist " has 41% success rate (???), so if some wants to invest should do just contrary to his opinion, with 59% success rate.
Really funny!

 

[RobStark]

Wealth inequality in this world sure is sane when we start saying someone has "only" $625 million

According to Forbes 400 list of richest Americans #400 is David Zalik CEO of GreenSky with a net worth of $1.6B.

Being a billionaire doesn't get you on the list.

Millionaire x625 doesn't put you in the "big dog" list of people in the $40B-$100B category that could fund the privatization of Tesla from personal wealth.

BTW The list is almost all entrepreneurs. I see a few 2nd generation inherited billionaires like Sam Walton's kids. I don't see many 3rd or 4th generation. No Vanderbilts or Morgans.

One Rockefeller. David Rockefeller,grandson of John D Rockefeller, at #93 with 6 children

 

[1208]

Can't the lot of you dip into your wallets and end this all now.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

This is not Tesla related though.

Who do you think will supply the electric motors for the moving platforms?