TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EarlyAdopter]

Elon's explanation here: Staying Public

(An excerpt here, though I recommend reading the whole post. It's well written and clear)

"Based on all the discussions that have taken place over the last couple of weeks and a thorough consideration of what is best for the company, a few things are clear to me:

• Given the feedback I’ve received, it’s apparent that most of Tesla’s existing shareholders believe we are better off as a public company. Additionally, a number of institutional shareholders have explained that they have internal compliance issues that limit how much they can invest in a private company. There is also no proven path for most retail investors to own shares if we were private. Although the majority of shareholders I spoke to said they would remain with Tesla if we went private, the sentiment, in a nutshell, was “please don’t do this.”
• I knew the process of going private would be challenging, but it’s clear that it would be even more time-consuming and distracting than initially anticipated. This is a problem because we absolutely must stay focused on ramping Model 3 and becoming profitable. We will not achieve our mission of advancing sustainable energy unless we are also financially sustainable.
• That said, my belief that there is more than enough funding to take Tesla private was reinforced during this process."

 

[Remus]

• That said, my belief that there is more than enough funding to take Tesla private was reinforced during this process.

 

[sundaymorning]

Elon's explanation here: Staying Public

(An excerpt here, though I recommend reading the whole post. It's well written and clear)

"Based on all the discussions that have taken place over the last couple of weeks and a thorough consideration of what is best for the company, a few things are clear to me:

• Given the feedback I’ve received, it’s apparent that most of Tesla’s existing shareholders believe we are better off as a public company. Additionally, a number of institutional shareholders have explained that they have internal compliance issues that limit how much they can invest in a private company. There is also no proven path for most retail investors to own shares if we were private. Although the majority of shareholders I spoke to said they would remain with Tesla if we went private, the sentiment, in a nutshell, was “please don’t do this.”
• I knew the process of going private would be challenging, but it’s clear that it would be even more time-consuming and distracting than initially anticipated. This is a problem because we absolutely must stay focused on ramping Model 3 and becoming profitable. We will not achieve our mission of advancing sustainable energy unless we are also financially sustainable.
• That said, my belief that there is more than enough funding to take Tesla private was reinforced during this process."

Good, so can we raise capital within the next 6 months after profits, Elon? Emotionally, it would be healthy for retail investors who don’t know what the heck is happening. Plus we want to build that China Europe GF ASAP. But before doing that, announce the 6k asap so we can breath a sigh of relief. And did I mentioned asap, please?

 

[Fact Checking]

All of this makes sense, however I do feel in the very near term that shorts will likely attack on the news.

Well, if Tesla shorts insist on donating a few billions of dollars more to Tesla shareholders, I'm sure shareholders won't object! ;-)

Smarter shorts will use the undervalued price levels to cover.

 

[sdtslafan]

Absolutely thrilled we are staying public.

I divested part of my stake because I didn’t want all my money in a private company with poor liquidity and lack of transparency.

I now hope the stock will drop so I can buy.

I think investors will pile on in due time just like they were piling on when Elon tweeted his funding secured tweet. It may not be Monday or next week but it will happen
Chunks of this company are going to be devoured in the coming months...just my opinion. I’d prefer if price stays low so I can buy more as I generate income from my work. I still need a lot of shares to reach my goal.

 

[AZRI11]

This is probably not market related. Didn’t really know where to share. Its basically this twitter guy posting screenshots of an old employee that helped developed the infotainment system breaking his nda because he says it’s Expired. But definitely talking bad about the code.
ato̧̕m̀͡i̴̷̛c̨͝t͝҉͡h̷҉u̵̶m͜͞b͏͝s̀́ on Twitter

Really hates touch screens In cars. What an axe that he has to grind.

 

[Fact Checking]

Good, so can raise capital within the next 6 months after profits,

The good news is that if Tesla is profitable then Tesla doesn't need to raise capital through an equity raise ever again. They made this very clear in the Q2 conference call.

I.e. going forward Tesla will follow the Amazon path.

 

[beachbum77]

It is way too early to see if the class action suits will have any merit. 16 days of price fluctuation does not make a class action suit. If the stock declines from here for the next 6+ months, then, yes, it’ll have validity, but not until and if, then.

The suits are mostly based on what happened within 24 hrs of the tweet. Longs jumped in and shorts bailed out as a direct result of the tweet.

 

[Fact Checking]

We saw a much restraint Elon on Twitter recently. I really wish he will continue to show will power for self control going forward

Yeah, his new method of saving draft tweets and not sending most of them worked really well!

 

[beachbum77]

Fixed that for you.

Smarter short arguments please! 2019 will be very boring if you all get wiped out due to ill considered bets in the stock market.

I received an email notification of the BoD blog post. I never got the one for Elon's post.

 

[sundaymorning]

The good news is that if Tesla is profitable then Tesla doesn't need to raise capital through an equity raise ever again. They made this very clear in the Q2 conference call.

I.e. going forward Tesla will follow the Amazon path.

True, but if the option was there to grow substainially higher in a short time frame, I’d rather take the short cut. But let’s see what numbers look like and what profits will be in Q3 and 4 before I jump the gun and tweet a request to raise capital.

 

[BenPrice]

Best news of the day and I have piles of CRON calls.

Loooooading up on November calls. Mark Spiegel’s dumbass is going to buy me a Tesla or 3.

 

[Fact Checking]

Longs jumped in and shorts bailed out as a direct result of the tweet.

Shorts are, by definition, anti-investors - so I doubt the SEC (or courts) will waste much time on them - although I'm sure the lawsuits will keep a few junior Tesla lawyers busy (and entertained) for months, maybe even years.

Longs who jumped the gun on a "considering" possibility - I'm sure they will be rewarded in the weeks/months to come.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

“I’m thinking about taking Tesla private.”

“funding secured” but “pending shareholder vote.”

Elon also said he will “try” to take retail investors private.

Now had he said “Tesla is 100% going private and retail investors are 100% going to be able to go private at $420, one hundred % without a doubt all papers signed, board approved shareholders voted with 100% confidence”, then you might have a case.

Otherwise, your problem was driven by greed. But stay mad, it’ll help you think more clearly when posting here.

If you think attacking me for having my opinion is going to improve anything, you're going to have another thought coming soon enough. My opinion will be shared by a great many other shareholders.

I'm also still not seeing the "short burn of the century" we were all promised either.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The suits are mostly based on what happened within 24 hrs of the tweet. Longs jumped in and shorts bailed out as a direct result of the tweet.

The point I was making is that you can’t sue for stock price action over a day or a couple of weeks. The judge would laugh you out of the court. If the stock price stays depressed for the next 6 months, then there is an actionable harm.

 

[sundaymorning]

If you think attacking me for having my opinion is going to improve anything, you're going to have another thought coming soon enough. My opinion will be shared by a great many other shareholders.

I'm also still not seeing the "short burn of the century" we were all promised either.

I guess Elon’s “short burn of the century” opinion isn’t as good as yours to be posted on a public forum? It’s his opinion, and thought.... get use to it.

And how many times have you attacked otheres here, including me?

What goes around comes around, seems like you have a problem with taking other people’s opinion. Post all the crap you want, it only makes you look foolish.

 

[Fact Checking]

True, but if the option was there to grow substainially higher in a short time frame, I’d rather take the short cut.

Tesla is not capital constrained in their expansion of existing product capacity anymore: they literally only have to copy their existing Fremont lines, and Chinese banks seem happy enough to fund that through local loans.

Rinse & repeat.

Tesla is not capital constrained in their R&D of new products either: if they do it right they can overlap the Model Y and the Semi with their Model 3 technology as much as possible.

Tesla is mainly execution constrained at the moment - and in that area they improved significantly this year alone.

I don't think it's a good strategy to equity-debt finance a 30 billion dollars annual revenue company. Instead demonstrate robust cash flow and profitability on successful product lines, which unlocks local sources of financing - without the strings of Wall Street financing.

Doing that will also scrape off the barnacles shorts.

 

[beachbum77]

The point I was making is that you can’t sue for stock price action over a day or a couple of weeks. The judge would laugh you out of the court. If the stock price stays depressed for the next 6 months, then there is an actionable harm.

Types of Market Manipulation
Market manipulation comes in many shapes and sizes. The following are a few examples of different types of market manipulation.

• Churning - An attempt by a stock broker to increase activity in a client's account to boost commissions by buying and selling orders at the same price. This activity is intended to drive up the price and attract other investors.
• Ramping - Creating activity or rumors intended to raise the price of a stock.
• Wash trading - Generating activity to push up the stock price by selling and re-purchasing the same security.
• Bear raiding - An attempt by a broker to short sell a security and drive the price down, allowing it to be bought back at a lower price and thus make a profit on the difference.
• Cornering - When enough of a certain stock, commodity, or other asset is purchased in order gain control and establish the price for it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well this sucks...

Staying Public

So effectively, what Elon has done is succesfully fight off a take-over attempt by the Saudi sovereign wealth fund.

Well played, sir, well played.

Now if only Tesla can make better products than Lucid Motors...

 

[jhm]

So if Musk is correct about too many shareholders reluctant or unable to go private, we could be in for a big rebound on Monday.

I suspect that many potential buyers we on the sidelines while this go-private cloud was overhead. Now we can get back to where this stock was going before Elon wondered aloud.

We've got Model 3 production taking off. Tesla stock really does need to start venturing into the $400 handle. It's time. We should see this within a few months.