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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 30, 2017.

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  1. M|S|W

    M|S|W Member

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    Glad that going private is off the table now.
    Bought my first shares back in 2013 and expect to keep my position in TSLA at least for next 5+ years.

    Next week should be a wild ride for us:D
     
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  2. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    I heard he has a tiny incentive to do so.
     
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  3. 2virgule5

    2virgule5 Supporting Member

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    Well, I’m not 20 anymore so I’ll admit this soft-pretzel twist hurts a bit my back - time for some ludicrous launches to put things back into place.

    Before last night bombshell we were still trying to figure out the meaning of the last few days @$320 ceiling+floor. In retrospect, was it in any way related to this news (known by a few)?
     
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  4. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    That's an interesting observation and fits well with the cryptic tweets Elon sent this week with references to profit and loss:

    Firstly there's the tweet 3 days ago about red Mars followed by a black Tesla Model S:


    Which suggests Tesla profitability, followed by this tweet yesterday:

    Elon Musk on Twitter

    [​IMG]The Red and The Black[​IMG]
    When Elon sent this last tweet then he probably already knew that Tesla would stay public - they were waiting for the end of the trading week to announce it.
     
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  5. HG Wells

    HG Wells Martian Embassy

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    BE CAREFUL !
    Never trust the person or PERSONS who give you the fortune cookie.

    Several years ago a real estate agent took us to lunch at a Chinese restaurant.
    After dinner my wife and I opened our fortune cookies. She got "You will find a happy home", I got "You will make a wise investment".

    Turning to the real estate agent, I said "Where did you buy these?" He turned a bright shade of red.
     
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  6. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    My strategy remains as it has been: two consecutive profitable quarters should bust through the most serious of the short hypotheses. They'll go back to their old demand/competition hypotheses, but that's not going to sustain a campaign. Basically, I'll probably liquidate my TSLA holdings in Q1 or Q2 and use them to buy my Model 3 when my number comes up :)
     
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  7. lunitiks

    lunitiks Cool James & Black Teacher

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    Ok, since nobody else is, I’m going to say it:

    [​IMG]
     
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  8. priscila

    priscila Banned

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    How many times has Elon lied about getting profitable? How many times has he failed? And what about the lawsuits currently forming and Tesla is required to build allowances for these lawsuits? They are built over the P&L hence influencing Q3 results significantly (US GAAP). And what about the latest SeekingAlpha Article stating that Q3 results might even be worse then the net loss of 2XX millions? They are saying it might be 350 millions (net loss) for Q3. They do also have these numbers from somewhere?...

    And what about the Bloomberg tracker now showing only 4000 vehicles produced in the following 3 weeks? What is going on? I do not believe anything anymore that Elon Musk is telling to the public.

    One thing is for sure: If he does not proof to be both profitable (significantly) in both Q3 and Q4 (after cutting jobs and ramping up production) - the shorts will short that thing down to 150 - 200$.
     
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  9. Teslie

    Teslie Member

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    I seriously doubt it. After the bk the shares will be delisted...
     
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  10. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    Very interesting question, I was wondering about that price action mystery too:
    • Could be a big player sensing or knowing the end of negotiations without being an insider, figuring a big wave of stock purchases and soaking up liquidity.
    • Or it could have been an end of Friday weekly options $320 strike price play, executed in an interesting way.
    One thing seems certain: in hindsight my initial speculation that it might have been the 'buyout consortium' was dead wrong!
     
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  11. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    Just for your information: the bankruptcy of short sellers in a short squeeze doesn't cause any delisting of stock - except if the funds that are going bankrupt due to shorting Tesla were publicly listed - most of them are privately held though.
     
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  12. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    If you are referring to your own posts then it might not be the wisest to admit to that publicly. I wish you fast recovery from any addiction you might have though!

    Not legal advice.
     
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  13. Dan Detweiler

    Dan Detweiler Active Member

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    Nice to see we are all back to normal. Threats, accusations, slander, misguided expectations...

    Yeah, all is right with the world. LOL!

    Dan
     
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  14. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    BTW., it's interesting that the going-private discussions have brought forward a couple of internal profit targets of big Tesla shareholders:
    Ark Investment's bear case is $600 Tesla ...

    If more investors share those views we might see a gradual increase in the share price, especially once Q3/Q4 profitability is achieved.
     
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  15. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Supporting Member

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    I can't express how excited I am that things are back to normal and how excited I am for Q3/Q4. Now if my edit button would just go away! I'm hoping for some good buying opportunities next week but honestly I'm not so sure the stock will drop as much as we may hope or think. But I have no idea.
     
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  16. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    #30816 KarenRei, Aug 25, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2018
    Q4 '17: Tesla will be sustainably profitable late next year
    Q1 '18: Tesla will be sustainably profitable in Q3 or Q4 of this year
    Q2 '18: Tesla will be sustainably profitable in Q3 of this year
    Present: Tesla will be sustainably profitable this quarter

    Where exactly are you seeing mixed messages in this?

    It's not difficult to understand. Q2 had positive gross margins on Model 3 without AWD or P in the mix. This quarter, half their mix is AWD and P, which are high margin (esp. P). Production rates are going to be threefold what they were in Q2. Even if you assume no margin improvements in their production process, this is huge.

    But yet assuming no margin improvements would be stupid. You know, the shorts think they're being clever with sharing all of these "high scrap rate", "high rework rate" articles. But the thing is, if accurate, that's a wonderful thing from a long's perspective. If they're getting positive margins with high scrap and rework rates, stop and think for a second what that tells you about how their margins will trend as they continue to improve their production processes. All issues of production rate increases reducing per-vehicle depreciation and labour costs aside.

    All large companies face lawsuits. Rather frequently. Nothing that's facing Tesla looks to be serious. There's no potential multi-billion-dollar judgements over their heads. What, you think some shorts deciding to cover at a brief period of higher prices than they would have otherwise is going to ruin the company - assuming that they can A) establish that Musk's intent was malicious, B) find that he broke a law despite not seeking to profit off of his statement ,C) that the shorts are a protected, aggrieved party, and D) prove that they wouldn't have covered anyway? There just wasn't enough covering during that period to amount to dramatic losses, even if you can establish A, B, C, and D. And regardless, any judgement would be against Musk, not Tesla.

    LOL.

    Now I'm starting to think you're concern trolling here. Surely you've noticed that production rates on the Bloomberg tracker are not constant, but rather grow in spurts, periodically interrupted by downtime or measurement error. The downtimes, when they happen, are good things, because they mean that production will head to either higher rates or higher margins afterwards. That's the whole point of them.
     
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  17. NicoV

    NicoV Supporting Member

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    Delisting doesn’t make the shares evaporate away. They would mostly still keep being traded on the pink sheets. I still have some of those, from companies where I should have been short instead of long.
     
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  18. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    I believe all of this. Tesla's code is quite obviously a complete mess.

    What surprised me is that Superchargers can have their firmware remotely updated (!!!)
     
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  19. ZeApelido

    ZeApelido Active Member

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    Thanks, I was half asleep trying to rock our baby to bed :D
     
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  20. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Banned

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    Why? Obviously remote connection with fees immediately charged to credit cards. Idle fees charged to cars. They have always kept records of who is charging. Salvage cars not allowed. I wonder if police will get around to requesting records as part of investigations
     
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