TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Reciprocity]

Why not? The spread between max VIN and overall VIN distribution have been about the same since beginning of Feb. I don't see any evidence that max VIN doesn't represent the overall production pace with a constant delta.

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That big gap is ominous but it also is reassuring because it appears they are past the gap and now we can see the results. My guess is that we will see a large batch of Vins registered with NHTSA soon but no later then next week. This is the sign im looking for that would point to quick ramp to 2.5k/w by the end of the month. They have about 12400 total vins, so they have about 2400 left. They seem to be assigning vins at the last minute for some reason. Some type of bear trap? Or am I just being to conspiratorial? You have 3 weeks, so if they register 3000-5000 vins in the next batch it will be a very good sign. If only 1000, then hide your kids and hide your valuables. At least until following week, when they might do a big batch. Its just to difficult to determine anything based on Vins, but one thing is certain, they need vins if they are producing cars and they are running low.

 

[Ulmo]

Why not? The spread between max VIN and overall VIN distribution have been about the same since beginning of Feb. I don't see any evidence that max VIN doesn't represent the overall production pace with a constant delta.

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That’s been my interpretation so far, too. We still need to calculate density & gaps, but the #s cluster on the trend.

 

[PaulusdB]

In others words, “Elon tweeted.” I can’t wait to see his Twitter story arc after he gets his new share package. More bad art + occasional announcements & chitter chatter, or will he do something different/more/less?

I sincerely think his compensation package is just background noise to everything else that goes on in his mind.

 

[bdy0627]

Shorts are giving us a rollercoaster ride this morning.

 

[Richgoogol]

I really thought today would be the day TSLA would be hiking..I guess not...at least not yet

 

[bdy0627]

I really thought today would be the day TSLA would be hiking..I guess not...at least not yet

With shorts typically representing 65% of the daily trading again now, it will probably take some positive ramp news to negate their influence. A tweet about the Grohmann line being installed would be helpful...

 

[ZeApelido]

I'm really confused as how investors could be hoping for significant positive stock price rise right now? I thought it made sense that current price changes are mostly related to model 3 ramp, and right now most signs on that front are negative (for now)...

 

[bdy0627]

I'm really confused as how investors could be hoping for significant positive stock price rise right now? I thought it made sense that current price changes are mostly related to model 3 ramp, and right now most signs on that front are negative (for now)...

Sometimes stock movement precedes public awareness of news...

 

[ZeApelido]

Sure. So perhaps there are some signs somewhere that the ramp has progressed?

 

[Tenable]

Doesn't mean much, but I got a call today on a M3 res configured 2 weeks ago. No VIN as yet, but the Tesla rep said she was speaking to about 100 people per day regarding their configs.

 

[Reciprocity]

Doesn't mean much, but I got a call today on a M3 res configured 2 weeks ago. No VIN as yet, but the Tesla rep said she was speaking to about 100 people per day regarding their configs.

Uh, its your fault I bought $MU a few days back.. and Thank you!

 

[Tenable]

Uh, its your fault I bought $MU a few days back.. and Thank you!

SO SORRY!! ;-) I'm heavily overweight twtr as well but not everything goes this well. Happy to hear you're crushing, but as always "not an advice."

 

[montefuego]

Great info. Ideal for the Put/Call strategy I have. The problem is that as soon as I implement my strategy its going to go straight up or down and wipe out one or the other or even worst.. stay the exact same until they expire. In general though I think the bias should be to the upside, but I expect more of the same until we get better delivery numbers. Then the good news should come fast and furiously, with Y reveal, Pickup reveal, Semi going into production and then Y going into production. Its going to be exciting. Now if they could just figure out how to build all this stuff.

I'm really concerned about the competition coming Tesla's way from Jaguar, Porsche, Volkswagen, eventually Mercedes. They are very technically competent companies exactly in the market (that Tesla has taken from them). I could be wrong, but I'm thinking that the Geneva Show is why the stock is currently on the downside. What do you guys think?

 

[Reciprocity]

I'm really concerned about the competition coming Tesla's way from Jaguar, Porsche, Volkswagen, eventually Mercedes. They are very technically competent companies exactly in the market (that Tesla has taken from them). I could be wrong, but I'm thinking that the Geneva Show is why the stock is currently on the downside. What do you guys think?

I think its down because deliveries are clearly lagging the pace that would be required to hit 2500/w. I mean they seemed to all but stop for what seemed like 2 weeks and then they registered an anemic 1000 Vins with the NHTSA after lag period.. But who knows.

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm really concerned about the competition coming Tesla's way from Jaguar, Porsche, Volkswagen, eventually Mercedes. They are very technically competent companies exactly in the market (that Tesla has taken from them). I could be wrong, but I'm thinking that the Geneva Show is why the stock is currently on the downside. What do you guys think?

I see lots of concepts, but very few cars available to buy. I don't think it's a big deal for Tesla, certainly not at this moment.

 

[Tenable]

I'm really concerned about the competition coming Tesla's way from Jaguar, Porsche, Volkswagen, eventually Mercedes. They are very technically competent companies exactly in the market (that Tesla has taken from them). I could be wrong, but I'm thinking that the Geneva Show is why the stock is currently on the downside. What do you guys think?

Tesla's stock reflects the disappointing ramp in production against projections / expectations. The competitors are generally laughable and low volume. Even if/when solid competition appears, its a boon for Tesla not a detriment. These topics have been beaten to death on this forum. Searching should give you a solid view of our members thoughts. Welcome to TMC.

 

[jhm]

Sometimes stock movement precedes public awareness of news...

 

[madodel]

I see lots of concepts, but very few cars available to buy. I don't think it's a big deal for Tesla, certainly not at this moment.

We have been hearing about Tesla Killers for years. Where are they? They are always on the horizon. And if they ever actually sell those cars they will take market share from their ICE cars. They are competition to their own market, not Tesla's. Which is why they don't want to sell them in the first place. Where are the 100's of thousands of Bolts? In a year I have seen exactly one and that was at a Drive Electric event in NJ. Nice little car but not a threat to Tesla.

 

[jelloslug]

We have been hearing about Tesla Killers for years. Where are they? They are always on the horizon. And if they ever actually sell those cars they will take market share from their ICE cars. They are competition to their own market, not Tesla's. Which is why they don't want to sell them in the first place. Where are the 100's of thousands of Bolts? In a year I have seen exactly one and that was at a Drive Electric event in NJ. Nice little car but not a threat to Tesla.

They are in the same place they have always been: just around the corner.

 

[RiverCard]

Proxy adviser Institutional Shareholder Services Inc. called Tesla Inc.(TSLA) [s" tsla] plan to award Chief Executive Elon Musk an estimated $2.6 billion compensation over a decade "unprecedented," and advised shareholders to vote against it.