TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ValueAnalyst]

Well, I actually don't like the jobs report.

Just trying to have one of my rental properties painted, quotes were almost double what I normally pay. Labor is getting hard to find. The days of inflation are returning! Mark my words!

I remember 18% interest rates on home mortgages. Those days will return !

Labor is tight, but some slack in underemployment and discouraged workers. 18% interest rates are over. The Fed will slow down the economy later this year once wages continue back up; just not yet. Pull this to macro if you want to discuss further.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

It looks like VA the bull is re-emerging. Welcome back!

I've never gone anywhere. Always long and strong until price reaches intrinsic value, which is much higher than price right now.

I may disagree on certain topics with other bulls from time to time, but the key fundamental thesis is intact, and only getting stronger.

 

[Reciprocity]

Labor is tight, but some slack in underemployment and discouraged workers. 18% interest rates are over. The Fed will slow down the economy later this year once wages continue back up; just not yet. Pull this to macro if you want to discuss further.

Labor is not tight, that is one thing that is finally clear in this report. You think labor is tight because the unemployment rate tells you it is. But you forget that over the last 10 years a large number of people just gave up looking for work. This report is one of a few that I have seen in the past, that show people being lured back into the job market. There is still a lot of slack in the marginally connected and completely disconnected workers pool. People are still under employed. Until those things recover, the job market will not tighten to much and the wages will not go up very fast even though many will be making more. The reason is that people coming back into the job market are starting over in many ways so they are taking lower wages to get their feet in the door. This will balance out wage increases in part due to the recent tax breaks and in part due to a lack of critical skills. Employers are going to have to train people for them to make more money at this point. I am watching the U6. When it peaks.. or hits its low and starts to rise again for a few months in a row, I will be looking for exit. At which point, I am going to be going short oil in a big way, because I dont believe oil is going to survive the next recession. 18-24 months.. then 24 months of a recession and 24 months of recovery.. nah.. oil wont make it back from that in the way we are all used to today. Oil will be around for a very long time, but it will be more of a niche player where only the absolutely most efficient producers will survive.

 

[montefuego]

Formidable threat based on what? That it seats up to 7? That you can load it up with more Ikea than you can a minivan? That it'll have OTA updates that make the car better as it gets older? Or just that it's a sportier looking car?

It may be a sportier 'feeling' and driving car. I didn't buy a Model S so I could seat 7 or use it like a truck. I bought it because I believe in the mission of Elon. And, by the way, it makes driving a Boxster feel so 'last century.' The Model S just kills any ICE car I've driven.

 

[montefuego]

Shorts keep track of every departures :
That's 11 people, some of them very senior, in 6 months.

 

[DurandalAI]

Thanks for the welcome! Appreciate the thoughts. Nonetheless, it seems to me that the Jag is somewhat of a threat to the Model X. As for the 'S', my previous car, before my Model S, was a Boxster, and I think when Porsche's Mission E comes out, it will be a formidable threat to the Model S, assuming it is not upgraded before then. The 15 min charging--does it reduce the life of the battery, or did the Europeans figure out a way to avoid that--is a big deal if you go on long road trips. One 40 min stop is fine--eat lunch-- but when the second one rolls around that is a real downer. And the ergonomics and 'sexiness' of the Porsche is not to be underestimated. I think the Model S was based on the Panamera anyway. This is Porsche's reply.
The disappointing ramp seems for sure the bigger, more immediate issue. Where you guys get info on that, is there another site I can look at?
Anyway, all the best to you and I'm glad to be the neophyte in the community.

The Jag has the same interior cargo volume as the Nissan Leaf. So essentially just take a Leaf, add a rear motor for AWD, give it a bigger battery and more ground clearance. Done.

 

[jelloslug]

Well, I actually don't like the jobs report.

Just trying to have one of my rental properties painted, quotes were almost double what I normally pay. Labor is getting hard to find. The days of inflation are returning! Mark my words!

I remember 18% interest rates on home mortgages. Those days will return !

That was when you could deduct any interest that you paid on anything. Those days are long gone.

 

[jelloslug]

The Jag has the same interior cargo volume as the Nissan Leaf. So essentially just take a Leaf, add a rear motor for AWD, give it a bigger battery and more ground clearance. Done.

Don't forget the map pocket under the hood.

 

[DurandalAI]

Labor is not tight, that is one thing that is finally clear in this report. You think labor is tight because the unemployment rate tells you it is. But you forget that over the last 10 years a large number of people just gave up looking for work. This report is one of a few that I have seen in the past, that show people being lured back into the job market. There is still a lot of slack in the marginally connected and completely disconnected workers pool. People are still under employed. Until those things recover, the job market will not tighten to much and the wages will not go up very fast even though many will be making more. The reason is that people coming back into the job market are starting over in many ways so they are taking lower wages to get their feet in the door. This will balance out wage increases in part due to the recent tax breaks and in part due to a lack of critical skills. Employers are going to have to train people for them to make more money at this point. I am watching the U6. When it peaks.. or hits its low and starts to rise again for a few months in a row, I will be looking for exit.

Yes, most people look at the the U3, as opposed to he U6.
I would be surprised if it hasn’t been mentioned before....
Alternate Unemployment Charts

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I'm really surprised that bears don't see the long-term dominance of Semi; explained here in a tweet. The achievement of milestones will drive multiple expansion throughout the next two years, and will lead to sudden SP surges from time to time. This should be expected. Tesla has the field to itself for several years on this, as basically admitted by a Daimler exec recently.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Elon just retweeted a TechCrunch review of Model 3.

This is yet another sign that the Model 3 anti-sell may be over.

 

[Reciprocity]

I'm really surprised that bears don't see the long-term dominance of Semi; explained here in a tweet. The achievement of milestones will drive multiple expansion throughout the next two years, and will lead to sudden SP surges from time to time. This should be expected. Tesla has the field to itself for several years on this, as basically admitted by a Daimler exec recently.

They are no math so good, me thinks (grammar for impact). Hell even I can figure out the math on this one.

In short.. they believe Tesla is lying, they believe Tesla is a fraud and can only survive on the government tit. And no rational thought will sway them from those ideas. We bulls have our own issues. We believe that Elon will finally hit a timeline, which he wont. We believe that Tesla will figure out how to fulfill all of this demand, they wont. Its not really possible. The demand for these products is to large for anyone to fulfill. Even if Tesla teamed up with VW, there are not enough cells. My hope is that they can pull it together sooner then later, but I also do not think it matters that much. Shorts are irate because Tesla gives bad news, the stock goes up. Tesla missing deliveries by a wide margin, the stock goes up. Tesla is way behind on the ramp, the stock goes up. I feel bad for shorts, not really.

 

[Reciprocity]

Yes, most people look at the the U3, as opposed to he U6.
I would be surprised if it hasn’t been mentioned before....
Alternate Unemployment Charts

Interesting.. but that seems high. U6 and the labor force participation rates should capture the "Shadow" Unemployment pretty well. In theory, many uber drivers would be considered employed, but should be considered under employed maybe? Maybe the whole gig economy is skewing things a bit.

 

[Richgoogol]

Just set a limit order at $323.1 for 100 shares, let's see if it gets triggered.

 

[JKCOOKIE]

I'm sorry, can you clarify what the SP is for 0% line (327 doesn't feel right).

That is a great question.Thanks.

 

[Richgoogol]

It's so sad that this could have easily been a 1-2% up day for TSLA if none of these nonsense happened..

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Since ATH on June 26, TSLA underperformance vs. NASDAQ has approached 40%, which has happened only three times in history:

Jul 2015 to Feb of 2016 (7 months)
Apr 2016 to Nov 2016 (8 months)
Sep 2014 to Mar 2015 (7 months)

Following each time, TSLA has run big; and today, Tesla is closer than ever to Model 3, Semi, Energy, Model Y ramps.

 

[mongo]

Since ATH in late June, TSLA underperformance vs. NASDAQ has approached 40%, which has happened only a handful of times in history.

Well sure, any stock will be break ever or negative compared to its all time high.

 

[Starno]

View attachment 285324

Since ATH in late June, TSLA underperformance vs. NASDAQ has approached 40%, which has happened only a handful of times in history.

Comparable to July 2015 through February liquidation of 2016 (seven months)
Comparable to April 2016 through November 2016 (eight months)
Comparable to September 2014 through March 2015 (seven months)

Following each time, TSLA has run big, and today Tesla is closer than ever to Model 3, Semi, Energy, Model Y ramps.

To be honest, TSLA history is quite short to call it " history ". It hasn't even been 8 years ....

 

[BornToFly]

I hate days like this.