TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Hogfighter]

In regards to valuation, Toyota’s market cap is about 1.5x revenue. Tesla’s is about 2x current revenue, assuming 5,000 3’s and 2,000 S/X per week, with a little Tesla Energy thrown in.

Not as overvalued as some would have you believe.

 

[Joe F]

No floods here, but I do know a couple of locals who had their deliveries out of Charlotte delayed due to Florence. So Charlotte may well be working through a bit of a backlog.

But are they shipped via rail, and if so, with some of the tracks washed out in the state, what impact would that have on delivery in Columbia?

Not saying that's the reason, as I don't know how Tesla ships into SC, nor where the local rail terminals are in your neck of the woods, but it's something to consider. Rail traffic was certainly affected in the state.

I have friends in Conway, SC, and while their house was spared damage, areas surrounding them were not as fortunate. A few feet of elevation makes all the difference.

 

[KarenRei]

But are they shipped via rail, and if so, with some of the tracks washed out in the state, what impact would that have on delivery in Columbia?

Not saying that's the reason, as I don't know how Tesla ships into SC, nor where the local rail terminals are in your neck of the woods, but it's something to consider. Rail traffic was certainly affected in the state.

I have friends in Conway, SC, and while their house was spared damage, areas surrounding them were not as fortunate. A few feet of elevation makes all the difference.

... which is why seemingly small amounts of sea level rise are actually such a huge issue. All issues of storm intensity changes aside... the 20cm of sea level rise thusfar, plus the 20-300cm by 2100 (depending on which model you choose and especially which emissions scenario), is so meaningful: that adds to the height of every storm surge. Then factor in the effect of warmer seas on the intensity of the strongest storms...

 

[copyhacker]

But are they shipped via rail, and if so, with some of the tracks washed out in the state, what impact would that have on delivery in Columbia?

Not saying that's the reason, as I don't know how Tesla ships into SC, nor where the local rail terminals are in your neck of the woods, but it's something to consider. Rail traffic was certainly affected in the state.

I have friends in Conway, SC, and while their house was spared damage, areas surrounding them were not as fortunate. A few feet of elevation makes all the difference.

My extended family is in Conway. So far, none of them are in danger, but yes, it’s really bad there.

Unfortunately, SC doesn’t have a Tesla presence. I believe all delivery and service goes through Charlotte.

 

[NicoV]

In regards to valuation, Toyota’s market cap is about 1.5x revenue. Tesla’s is about 2x current revenue, assuming 5,000 3’s and 2,000 S/X per week, with a little Tesla Energy thrown in.

Not as overvalued as some would have you believe.

That would be a good comparison if the growth rate of the 2 companies was the same.

 

[avoigt]

Verified account 17m17 minutes ago
Replying to @ctbarker32
Apologies, we’re upgrading our logistics system, but running into an extreme shortage of car carrier trailers. Started building our own car carriers this weekend to alleviate load.

 

[Fact Checking]

20cm of sea level rise thusfar, plus the 20-300cm by 2100 (depending on which model you choose and especially which emissions scenario), is so meaningful: that adds to the height of every storm surge.

In fact in some regions it's much worse than a permanent increase in tide and storm surge levels, some cities are already almost certainly irreversibly lost to the sea today (in an irreversible process that takes 3-5 decades to play out), such as big parts of Miami and all low lying areas of Florida:

The reason is that the Florida peninsula is a porous plateau of karst limestone, the pressure from the rising sea waters comes from below through the spongy bedrock and rises the table of groundwater, sea level rise cannot be protected against with sea walls, dikes, dams and pumping stations like for example the low lying areas in the Netherlands are protected against:

Due to Florida's unique geology I believe there's no currently known technology to save much of Florida against sea level rise caused by the CO₂ already present in the atmosphere.

The first map above is for 100 cm rise - a ~300 cm rise in 50 years, as some updated models suggest, will have approximately this effect:

Tesla should plan the location of new manufacturing facilities accordingly. Shanghai looks pretty safe, for most parts.

 

[bdy0627]

Verified account 17m17 minutes ago
Replying to @ctbarker32
Apologies, we’re upgrading our logistics system, but running into an extreme shortage of car carrier trailers. Started building our own car carriers this weekend to alleviate load.

Hmm, makes you wonder who the VP in charge of deliveries is/was? I'm no expert on car manufacturing, but anticipating the massive volume increase in deliveries along with the requirements to accomplish it should have been fairly obvious. Since it apparently was not anticipated, now Tesla needs to start building their own car carriers too? How is that going to happen?

 

[jhm]

Verified account 17m17 minutes ago
Replying to @ctbarker32
Apologies, we’re upgrading our logistics system, but running into an extreme shortage of car carrier trailers. Started building our own car carriers this weekend to alleviate load.

I hope they have electric drive units. That would be cool.

 

[jhm]

Surge testing deliveries.

 

[Skryll]

I hope they have electric drive units. That would be cool.

Hmm, makes you wonder who the VP in charge of deliveries is/was? I'm no expert on car manufacturing, but anticipating the massive volume increase in deliveries along with the requirements to accomplish it should have been fairly obvious. Since it apparently was not anticipated, now Tesla needs to start building their own car carriers too? How is that going to happen?

I am guessing that was part of the Semi truck development anyways, looking at what an ideal carrier would look like and how they could be symbiotic. I think it is awesome that they will make something they need themselves and reiterate fast on that based on real world experience.

 

[Tslynk67]

Hmm, makes you wonder who the VP in charge of deliveries is/was? I'm no expert on car manufacturing, but anticipating the massive volume increase in deliveries along with the requirements to accomplish it should have been fairly obvious. Since it apparently was not anticipated, now Tesla needs to start building their own car carriers too? How is that going to happen?

They'll just throw them together from some scrap they've got lying around at Fremont...

 

[Hogfighter]

That would be a good comparison if the growth rate of the 2 companies was the same.

Right....that’s my whole point. You’ve got a growth company with a valuation metric comparable to a cyclical one.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I was reminded today of something I read and reread few times, about difference between peacetime and wartime CEO, and how much Elon Musk embodies wartime CEO:
Peacetime CEO/Wartime CEO
As there are number of behaviours I don't like about Musk towards his lieutenants and how many he's lost, this made me re-question my concerns, and be more comfortable that perhaps he is doing most things right, and some people close to him just can't take persistent state of war...

 

[Fact Checking]

anticipating the massive volume increase in deliveries along with the requirements to accomplish it should have been fairly obvious

So my reading of it is that it was not anticipated, possibly because the number of owners ready to take delivery this week turned out to be much higher than expected?

If Tesla indeed delivers 9k Teslas on the west coast alone this week, that exceeds the highest volume for that region so far by a factor of ~5x.

I.e. they are surge testing delivery levels that extrapolate to a global rate of ~20k deliveries a week, or a million cars a year...

Since it apparently was not anticipated, now Tesla needs to start building their own car carriers too? How is that going to happen?

Tesla might be improvising for this end of quarter week, but Tesla is going to need these carriers to meet average delivery levels expected in 2020 - two short years away, so building them themselves makes a lot of sense.

These carriers would eventually be towed by Tesla Semi trucks, of course. The new carrier platform might also be enclosed and be smaller, to allow the "Factory To Home Direct Delivery" method Elon tested a few weeks ago.

Elon is no stranger to expanding core infrastructure in unconventional ways: SpaceX converted barges into sea going drone ship rocket landing platforms...

 

[bdy0627]

Looks like the key $293 level held nicely today. Shorts keep trying to re-establish a downtrend but have been failing.

 

[cheshire cat]

I was reminded today of something I read and reread few times, about difference between peacetime and wartime CEO, and how much Elon Musk embodies wartime CEO:
Peacetime CEO/Wartime CEO
As there are number of behaviours I don't like about Musk towards his lieutenant and how many he's lost, this made me re-question my concerns, and be more comfortable that perhaps he is doing most things right, and some people close to him just can't take persistent state of war...

"Action this day" ---- Winston Spencer Churchill

 

[BenPrice]

I prefer Elon’s/whomevers strategy of build it ourselves rather than get bent over by the market or go without. Assuming Elon because SpaceX does it too.

Not often this goes wrong.

Often people’s response is wtf, they’re often proven wrong.

Quarterly sales projections are pretty easy to make. I’ve sat through them in a variety of manufacturing industries. Projecting car hauler needs based on projections is easy. One logical reason there is a logistics issue is that they’ve exceeded their projections.

 

[gene]

Since you guys are taliking numbers. Driving down the coast through Malibu to west Los Angeles today, I don’t even count Tesla’s anymore. There’s just way too many. My guess I saw 60 to 70. About 40% model 3, the rest S and X. That’s in a distance of about 80 Miles.

 

[gora321]

It is relaxing when you see green wood in the distance. Same feeling seeing green on the chart