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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 30, 2017.

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  1. Hogfighter

    Hogfighter Professional Lurker

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    In regards to valuation, Toyota’s market cap is about 1.5x revenue. Tesla’s is about 2x current revenue, assuming 5,000 3’s and 2,000 S/X per week, with a little Tesla Energy thrown in.

    Not as overvalued as some would have you believe.
     
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  2. Joe F

    Joe F Disruption is hard.

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    But are they shipped via rail, and if so, with some of the tracks washed out in the state, what impact would that have on delivery in Columbia?

    Not saying that's the reason, as I don't know how Tesla ships into SC, nor where the local rail terminals are in your neck of the woods, but it's something to consider. Rail traffic was certainly affected in the state.

    I have friends in Conway, SC, and while their house was spared damage, areas surrounding them were not as fortunate. A few feet of elevation makes all the difference.
     
  3. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    ... which is why seemingly small amounts of sea level rise are actually such a huge issue. All issues of storm intensity changes aside... the 20cm of sea level rise thusfar, plus the 20-300cm by 2100 (depending on which model you choose and especially which emissions scenario), is so meaningful: that adds to the height of every storm surge. Then factor in the effect of warmer seas on the intensity of the strongest storms...
     
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  4. copyhacker

    copyhacker Member

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    My extended family is in Conway. So far, none of them are in danger, but yes, it’s really bad there.

    Unfortunately, SC doesn’t have a Tesla presence. I believe all delivery and service goes through Charlotte.
     
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  5. NicoV

    NicoV Supporting Member

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    That would be a good comparison if the growth rate of the 2 companies was the same.
     
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  6. avoigt

    avoigt Active Member

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    [​IMG]
    Verified account
    17m17 minutes ago
    Replying to @ctbarker32
    Apologies, we’re upgrading our logistics system, but running into an extreme shortage of car carrier trailers. Started building our own car carriers this weekend to alleviate load.
     
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  7. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    In fact in some regions it's much worse than a permanent increase in tide and storm surge levels, some cities are already almost certainly irreversibly lost to the sea today (in an irreversible process that takes 3-5 decades to play out), such as big parts of Miami and all low lying areas of Florida:

    [​IMG]

    The reason is that the Florida peninsula is a porous plateau of karst limestone, the pressure from the rising sea waters comes from below through the spongy bedrock and rises the table of groundwater, sea level rise cannot be protected against with sea walls, dikes, dams and pumping stations like for example the low lying areas in the Netherlands are protected against:

    [​IMG]

    Due to Florida's unique geology I believe there's no currently known technology to save much of Florida against sea level rise caused by the CO₂ already present in the atmosphere.

    The first map above is for 100 cm rise - a ~300 cm rise in 50 years, as some updated models suggest, will have approximately this effect:

    [​IMG]

    Tesla should plan the location of new manufacturing facilities accordingly. Shanghai looks pretty safe, for most parts.
     
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  8. bdy0627

    bdy0627 Active Member

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    Hmm, makes you wonder who the VP in charge of deliveries is/was? I'm no expert on car manufacturing, but anticipating the massive volume increase in deliveries along with the requirements to accomplish it should have been fairly obvious. Since it apparently was not anticipated, now Tesla needs to start building their own car carriers too? How is that going to happen?
     
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  9. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    I hope they have electric drive units. That would be cool.
     
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  10. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    Surge testing deliveries.
     
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  11. Skryll

    Skryll Member

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    I am guessing that was part of the Semi truck development anyways, looking at what an ideal carrier would look like and how they could be symbiotic. I think it is awesome that they will make something they need themselves and reiterate fast on that based on real world experience.
     
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  12. Lycanthrope

    Lycanthrope S3XY old dude

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    They'll just throw them together from some scrap they've got lying around at Fremont...
     
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  13. Hogfighter

    Hogfighter Professional Lurker

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    Right....that’s my whole point. You’ve got a growth company with a valuation metric comparable to a cyclical one.
     
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  14. Zhelko Dimic

    Zhelko Dimic Careful bull

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    #38614 Zhelko Dimic, Sep 24, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2018
    I was reminded today of something I read and reread few times, about difference between peacetime and wartime CEO, and how much Elon Musk embodies wartime CEO:
    Peacetime CEO/Wartime CEO
    As there are number of behaviours I don't like about Musk towards his lieutenants and how many he's lost, this made me re-question my concerns, and be more comfortable that perhaps he is doing most things right, and some people close to him just can't take persistent state of war...
     
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  15. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    #38615 Fact Checking, Sep 24, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2018
    So my reading of it is that it was not anticipated, possibly because the number of owners ready to take delivery this week turned out to be much higher than expected?

    If Tesla indeed delivers 9k Teslas on the west coast alone this week, that exceeds the highest volume for that region so far by a factor of ~5x.

    I.e. they are surge testing delivery levels that extrapolate to a global rate of ~20k deliveries a week, or a million cars a year...

    Tesla might be improvising for this end of quarter week, but Tesla is going to need these carriers to meet average delivery levels expected in 2020 - two short years away, so building them themselves makes a lot of sense.

    These carriers would eventually be towed by Tesla Semi trucks, of course. The new carrier platform might also be enclosed and be smaller, to allow the "Factory To Home Direct Delivery" method Elon tested a few weeks ago.

    Elon is no stranger to expanding core infrastructure in unconventional ways: SpaceX converted barges into sea going drone ship rocket landing platforms...
     
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  16. bdy0627

    bdy0627 Active Member

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    Looks like the key $293 level held nicely today. Shorts keep trying to re-establish a downtrend but have been failing.
     
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  17. cheshire cat

    cheshire cat Member

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    "Action this day" ---- Winston Spencer Churchill
     
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  18. BenPrice

    BenPrice Supporting Member

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    I prefer Elon’s/whomevers strategy of build it ourselves rather than get bent over by the market or go without. Assuming Elon because SpaceX does it too.

    Not often this goes wrong.

    Often people’s response is wtf, they’re often proven wrong.

    Quarterly sales projections are pretty easy to make. I’ve sat through them in a variety of manufacturing industries. Projecting car hauler needs based on projections is easy. One logical reason there is a logistics issue is that they’ve exceeded their projections.
     
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  19. gene

    gene Supporting Member

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    Since you guys are taliking numbers. Driving down the coast through Malibu to west Los Angeles today, I don’t even count Tesla’s anymore. There’s just way too many. My guess I saw 60 to 70. About 40% model 3, the rest S and X. That’s in a distance of about 80 Miles.
     
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  20. gora321

    gora321 Member

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    It is relaxing when you see green wood in the distance. Same feeling seeing green on the chart :)
     
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