TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Words of HABIT]

TSLA held up extremely well today at +0.19% considering:
GM -1.61%
F (Ford) -2.64%
MGA (Magna International) (major car parts supplier) -1.63%
NIO -8.38% (now how did I slip that in there?)
Most likely down action due to increase Tariff talk/risk.

 

[cheshire cat]

Red Robbo & Co. I remember it well.

There' a man with a good memory

 

[jschwefel]

Exactly. I always blame weak longs more than shorts. Shorts have only no more than 40M shares of ammunition. Longs have unlimited funds. Just keep buying until shorts have to buy back.

Yes. Keep buying shares and force the Shorts to buy back, OR don’t offer your shares to short in the first place. Either will work.

 

[Fact Checking]

Question about this union hearing. Won't Tesla just do like every other manufacturer and run to a non-union state or Mexico if the UAW harassment continues?

Manufacturers generally only need to "run" if the unions are right, i.e. if the company is treating employees badly.

Tesla is treating employees well, for example every employee gets equity compensation (i.e. a stake in the company), which UAW members generally cannot accept because they are contractors. It's something the UAW doesn't know how to handle and these hearings, as long as there's no substance to them, are just nuisance.

If Tesla employees want to unionize then they will be able to - and I suspect they will do so in the European Gigafactory.

There's nothing inherently bad about unions: it's the employee side equivalent of the Chamber of Commerce, a lobbying and collective bargaining organization that represents member interests.

 

[gringotuanis]

14000 years ago the pacific was 350 feet lower than today and I could walk from Lahina to Lanai’i. People weren’t responsible for that. Nature was.

I prefer Elon’s/whomevers strategy of build it ourselves rather than get bent over by the market or go without. Assuming Elon because SpaceX does it too.

Not often this goes wrong.

Often people’s response is wtf, they’re often proven wrong.

Quarterly sales projections are pretty easy to make. I’ve sat through them in a variety of manufacturing industries. Projecting car hauler needs based on projections is easy. One logical reason there is a logistics issue is that they’ve exceeded their projections.

I used to work for one of the nation's top logistics companies for semi truck freight...and this whole discussion is not as easy as you would think. Mostly, the system simply does not have capacity. There were times we were hauling all the loads we could and the customers needed more loads hauled and we were simply maxed out on trucks and drivers. I ran a dispatch board with 600 plus trucks on the weekends and overnights. So to simply have the logistics vp make it happen is not as easy as it sounds if you are outsourcing. All those semi and car hauler companies have hundreds or thousands of clients they already serve.

PS bringing everything in house is called vertical integration and it's something Elon has been known for; for a long time. They just need to crank out another 50 semi prototypes and now they have trailers for them....

 

[gringotuanis]

Since you guys are taliking numbers. Driving down the coast through Malibu to west Los Angeles today, I don’t even count Tesla’s anymore. There’s just way too many. My guess I saw 60 to 70. About 40% model 3, the rest S and X. That’s in a distance of about 80 Miles.

Unfortunately that is unique. Here in the Midwest I rarely see a Tesla (if lucky maybe one a week or 2 weeks) though we do have a supercharger here along I 80 as well as most millionaires per capital I think. Buffet's hometown. Long TSLA via options and stock.

 

[JRP3]

14000 years ago the pacific was 350 feet lower than today and I could walk from Lahina to Lanai’i. People weren’t responsible for that. Nature was.

And?

Edit: We have a thread for that if anyone has questions Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

 

[Menifeer]

14000 years ago the pacific was 350 feet lower than today and I could walk from Lahina to Lanai’i. People weren’t responsible for that. Nature was.

Wow! You're really OLD!!

 

[winfield100]

Wow! You're really OLD!!

https://www.netflixmovies.com/the-man-from-earth-2007

 

[Ludalicious]

TSLA held up extremely well today at +0.19% considering:
GM -1.61%
F (Ford) -2.64%
MGA (Magna International) (major car parts supplier) -1.63%
NIO -8.38% (now how did I slip that in there?)
Most likely down action due to increase Tariff talk/risk.

It did hold up well and finished in the green. Looks to be some calm before the storm. For the good or worse.

 

[Skryll]

Audi Says No To Stocking e-tron At Dealerships: Special Order Only

The Scarlet Letter of a compliance vehicle; special order only.

No in stock test drive vehicles for the walk-in customer to see, touch, and test drive.

Not surprised, don't want them to turn on the AC and ask why its not cooling down like a tesla ( Audi e-tron event September 19th on 90 Broadway in San Francisco – first impressions )

 

[Sudre]

Unfortunately that is unique. Here in the Midwest I rarely see a Tesla (if lucky maybe one a week or 2 weeks) though we do have a supercharger here along I 80 as well as most millionaires per capital I think. Buffet's hometown. Long TSLA via options and stock.

I consider St. Louis the mid-west and I see them every time I drive somewhere. Maybe it is more specific than just mid-west, like your area.

 

[Words of HABIT]

It did hold up well and finished in the green. Looks to be some calm before the storm. For the good or worse.

For the good, definitely. The only storm brewing is Tesla. Tesla will be a force to be reckoned with. Day to day change in share price is just noise. Long term is clear and sunny with a cool driving breeze.

 

[scaesare]

14000 years ago the pacific was 350 feet lower than today and I could walk from Lahina to Lanai’i. People weren’t responsible for that. Nature was.

And 14,000 years ago there were 135 billion tons of petroleum in the ground that is no longer there. Nature was not responsible for that. People were.

 

[Fact Checking]

And 14,000 years ago there were 135 billion tons of petroleum in the ground that is no longer there. Nature was not responsible for that. People were.

Also, 14,000 years ago we were in the middle of an ice age, with a lot of ocean water tied up in ice masses.

That ice melted and sea levels stabilized thousands of years ago:

The recent sudden sea level rise over just a couple of decades started due to humans building an artificial CO₂ heat mirror.

And yes, we humans built that heat mirror by burning up to a trillion tons of coal and oil: hundreds of cubic kilometers of coal mass turned into a global heat mirror CO₂ gas layer which is twice as thick (400 ppm currently) as the ~200 ppm natural one before.

Planetary scale geoengineering with unintended side effects. It's an out of control terraforming experiment executed on the wrong planet: should be done on planet #4 instead, which is too cold.

This heat mirror has (unsurprisingly and in line with predictions made 100 years ago) already raised global temperatures, which increased sea levels as well - and the process is nowhere near finished yet.

 

[gringotuanis]

And 14,000 years ago there were 135 billion tons of petroleum in the ground that is no longer there. Nature was not responsible for that. People were.

Yay oil. Thank goodness we have it, so useful for so many items.

 

[Fact Checking]

Yay oil. Thank goodness we have it, so useful for so many items.

Actually, only 5% of world oil demand is used for "items", the remaining 95% is used as energy, is burned and turned into an atmospheric heat mirror.

If oil was only used for those 5% "items" such as plastics then it wouldn't be a problem whatsoever and wouldn't be one of the forces causing sea levels to rise in an unprecedented fast manner.

But Tesla and others are working on various solutions to reduce oil consumption by a factor of 10-20x.

 

[JRP3]

Yay oil. Thank goodness we have it, so useful for so many items.

We'd have a lot more of it if we weren't just burning it.

 

[neroden]

14000 years ago the pacific was 350 feet lower than today and I could walk from Lahina to Lanai’i. People weren’t responsible for that. Nature was.

So?

Humans are responsible for global warming *today*. The science is straightforward enough that it was explained by Arrhenius in the 1900s. And we can *stop* it if we want to. We should want to, because it's going to cause us a lot of trouble.

 

[abasile]

Tesla's solar panel (not solar roof) business seems to be the weak link in the company right now. They are selling commodity panels and are in direct competition with a plethora of installers. We've twice tried and failed to have Tesla/SolarCity install panels for us, once on our primary residence and again on another house.

Most recently, I went through Pick My Solar to get quotes on a 4.575 kW system with Hanwha 305W panels (Panasonic panels aren't rated for our snow loads up here) and had Tesla try to match our best quotes, with the same 25 year full warranty. We required a main service panel upgrade, but Tesla told us we'd have to find a third party to do that for us. Instead, we went with a reputable, regional installer that's including the main panel upgrade in the job, thus simplifying the process and saving us about $2000. As a TSLA shareholder and Tesla fan, I would have preferred to go with Tesla and would have been willing to pay a $1000 - $1500 premium to do so, but not with the hassle of separately contracting the main panel upgrade. Plus, the regional installer has significantly shorter wait times than Tesla.

Our Tesla solar rep was great and I appreciated dealing with him as well as one of their designers, but the company's "profitability analysis", etc., didn't give them the leeway to be sufficiently competitive. They are going to have to get their costs down to compete in this commodity market.

On the other hand, we had a great experience with Tesla/SolarCity installing two Powerwalls at our home. The Powerwall blows away the current competition on a kWh per dollar basis, and Tesla's installation costs were more reasonable than others. I'm optimistic about the energy storage business and the potential for Tesla solar roofs. Tesla's own products are awesome.

The sales pitch on the Tesla solar panel vs competitors is

1) They are more attractive

2) Tesla can sell you a complete solution, installed and warrantied by one company.

Solar Panels, inverter, control unit, Battery Energy Storage, and EVSE ( electric vehicle service equipment), and BEV.

If one subsystem fails that manufacture can't blame another for the failure.

Anything goes wrong you just call Tesla and they take care of it.