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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 30, 2017.

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  1. azaz

    azaz Active Member

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    where?
     
  2. tivoboy

    tivoboy Active Member

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    Debt is GOOOOOD, if it's cheap. At this point, some corp for that at 475bps would be a nice deal. I'd take that. They might be able to convince people they can pay it. Or put in another conversion option for 475$ in two years. Debt can be good..
     
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  3. M3Rider

    M3Rider Supporting Member

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    #52703 M3Rider, Oct 24, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2018
    Q4 guidance was w/o lower price MR, so today's 20% IS a better number.
     
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  4. Right_Said_Fred

    Right_Said_Fred Moderator

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    Long wait? Reading all the comments here makes time fly.
     
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  5. ThereAre4Cars

    ThereAre4Cars Member

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    I must be a masochist for trying to point out a simple truth about model 3 gross margins during celebrations. I'm gonna stop and I'll try it again when things cool off. I'm certainly not saying they are BAD, just neutral at best. Great quarter in every other respect that I can figure out.

    Heck even Ford going up is going to help us I bet.
     
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  6. Kuhz

    Kuhz Active Member

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    Time for some Teslaquila
     
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  7. EV forever

    EV forever Supporting Member

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    Any recommendations for a good live blog to follow? I will not be able to listen to the call.
     
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  8. BenPrice

    BenPrice Supporting Member

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    Ford misses guidance and raises 5.75%

    This is what happens when you give one family a bunch of money.

    Except they didn’t earn it. Some dude decades ago did. Now we can prop bullshit up
     
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  9. UnknownSoldier

    UnknownSoldier Unknown Member

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    I usually use the MarketWatch live blog. I know, I know. They still have a good live earnings blog despite everything else being horrible there.
     
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  10. CorneliusXX

    CorneliusXX Active Member

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    Booooooo.
     
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  11. MP3Mike

    MP3Mike Well-Known Member

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    #52711 MP3Mike, Oct 24, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2018
    Says the short that wants to keep holding large debt repayments over TSLA's head.
     
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  12. wipster

    wipster Gold Member

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    I see I see said the blind man as he picked up his hammer and saw...

    And in your case, heard too!
     
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  13. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    But... but... what about the Whompy Wheels?!?
     
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  14. njzimmic

    njzimmic Member

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    Should I sell my remaining position which is at $295.00 or hold and wait and accumulate more shares??
     
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  15. Electroman

    Electroman Supporting Member

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    You forgot to add key item to your list : customer deposits increased. So backlog is intact.
     
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  16. Johan

    Johan Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!

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    Well done for taking profit! That's about the highest print so far.
     
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  17. humbaba

    humbaba sleeping until $7000

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    Well, to be fair to @tivoboy holding debt can be profitable. An easy game is playing with other people's money: take out a loan and as long as you have a return higher than the interest you come out ahead by the difference.

    Whether or not it is warranted for Tesla? There's so many perceptions, such as the one that you mentioned, that it becomes hazier. But he is on solid economic ground.
     
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  18. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    From the letter

    "Production in China will be designated only for local customers."

    I know a lot of Australians, New Zealanders, and other Asians were saying they would not buy or strongly reconsider Model 3 if only Made in China versions were available locally.
     
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  19. Zaxxon

    Zaxxon Supporting Member

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    Key words are 'portions of'. They're not going to fully produce cars in China in 2019. That's crazy talk. Probably final assembly, that sort of thing.

    I love that this shareholder letter was clearly written to take apart the naysayer arguments:
    -Minimal ZEV credits. Can't say the net income came from ZEV.
    -Shows Model 3 the #1 vehicle by revenue
    -Calls out stable production despite introduction of AWD and reduction of labor hours. It's tough to get too worked up about missing production goals when the product mix and margin skyrocketed (way past Q3 guidance for margin).
    -Nukes the 'parking lot' theory directly
    -Calls out the crazy trade-up trend for Model 3, as well as the fact that Europe's market for the 3's vehicle class is > 2X the US's, and that orders are coming in the next two months for Europe/China.
    -Directly addresses the vehicle efficiency deficiency of new 'competition' (eg I-Pace).
    -Reaffirms guidance for profitability in Q4
    -Cash/equiv = $3.5B, and guided to increase significantly in Q4 while paying off $230M in notes during Q4. What was that about March notes?

    Other things I like:
    -They guide for increased Model 3 production/deliveries, but do not tie themselves to a specific wildly-optimistic number. With such a positive report, I'm glad they didn't include unnecessary poison pills like that.
    -Reaffirms that they plan to increase service infrastructure investment in Q4. I was a tiny bit afraid that they were going to keep up with the minimal expansion for another quarter, and I don't think they could afford to do that given the sales volume.

    If I had to find a complaint, it's that... Uhh, OK, how about that the solar roof is still clearly not ramping in any significant way. Yeah, that's the ticket. Hang your hat on that, shorty air force.

    At the risk of creating a disturbance in the force, I'm whipping this puppy out once more... TeslaChartMay.jpg
     
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  20. Ulmo

    Ulmo Active Member

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    #52720 Ulmo, Oct 24, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2018
    Here "neutral" is comparing a rosy and reasonable projection (because it's a rosy car) to an even more rosy actuality. That's like saying "I'm really healthy today, even better than yesterday!" is neutral, because I was really healthy yesterday.
     
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