TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

$60,000 is the average household income in the United States.

It's a big stretch between a Civic that's been paid off for 10 years versus the 3MR.

Give it 2 or 3 years - used Model 3 SR cars will be selling for $20k-$25k right?

 

[Electroman]

No way should the Y have falcons , use the 3 platform . Make it taller. Add some great stying and AWD
Bam!

MY will dampen MX sales, primarily because of lower cost and no FWD. But thats not a bad thing, as MY sales will be many times that of MX anyway, and I suspect even more than M3

 

[MarcusMaximus]

MY will dampen MX sales, primarily because of lower cost and no FWD. But thats not a bad thing, as MY sales will be many times that of MX anyway, and I suspect even more than M3

I'd note here that M3 hasn't seemed to dampen MS sales much at all, despite the same aspects at play.

 

[Etna]

Likewise, MY will increase MX sales because of brand (and next level technology) awareness. Unlike BMW X3 to X5 sales.

 

[gaswalla]

I think if one is in the market for a 150k suv, the 40-50k version is not generally an acceptable alternative - not true for all, but for most

 

[shlokavica22]

You know you got under a bear's skin when he quintuple posts in response to you

You just refuse to listen to reason, don't you?

 

[sub]

I think if one is in the market for a 150k suv, the 40-50k version is not generally an acceptable alternative - not true for all, but for most

Our X was 90k. Maybe both happens, some lower optioned model X sales are siphoned off to the cheaper Y but the increased overall exposure of Tesla brings in enough new buyers that X sales remain the same. This is most likely what has happened with the S/3.

I vote no falcon on the Y, that would not be a smart move. I’m leaning towards buying extended warranty when the time comes for the doors (all 5) alone.

 

[MXWing]

The X has a third row and that makes it a different vehicle class than the Y.

 

[Thekiwi]

The X has a third row and that makes it a different vehicle class than the Y.

Is it certain the Y wont have a 3rd row? Or rear facing seat option like the S?

 

[RobStark]

Is it certain the Y wont have a 3rd row? Or rear facing seat option like the S?

Y is going to have FWD, 3rd Row,and almost as long as X for Half the Price.

 

[electracity]

Is it certain the Y wont have a 3rd row? Or rear facing seat option like the S?

The X is tight with the third row. It's unlikely the Y would have a third row. The Y doesn't need a third row to sell either.

Anything is possible, of course.

 

[KarenRei]

MY will dampen MX sales, primarily because of lower cost and no FWD. But thats not a bad thing, as MY sales will be many times that of MX anyway, and I suspect even more than M3

Reminder: it's Tesla's plan that S and X lose market share. Remember that the EV market grows dramatically every year, yet S+X is limited to a max ~100k vehicles per year due to 18650 cell supply - and neither Tesla nor Panasonic have any interest in investing in more 18650 capacity.

A constant number of vehicles per year in a rapidly growing market equals a rapidly declining fraction of said market.

This is something that the bears frequently forget, but we shouldn't forget it here.

 

[SpaceCash]

It seems many bears are short sellers due to entrenched emotions; they have financial stakes in the ICE world. For ex, perhaps they are a car dealer. They hate Tesla's biz model and fear it will hurt their business.
Their approach is to damage Tesla, fight against it. It's a reasonable reaction; try to harm something you hate. While in reality what they should be doing is hedging their possible decline by investing in Tesla, the way the Saudi's did. Someone should write an article on SA, with this contrarian, yet logical, view. Maybe it would help some of these particular bears switch up their strategy and go long as a hedge.

I've integrated this understanding into my own outlook towards the bears. I really did lean toward it being largely a coordinated conspiracy attack by big oil, and in part it is, but there's a lot of wisdom in what you're saying here.

 

[KarenRei]

The X is tight with the third row. It's unlikely the Y would have a third row. The Y doesn't need a third row to sell either.

Anything is possible, of course.

I only expect the Y to be slightly smaller than the X (internal volume), and almost as long (reducing length increases, not decreases, aero drag). ~20% less cargo space than the X = Rav4 sized (Rav4 = highest selling SUV in the US). In varying markets / generations, Rav4 has been offered in 7-seat configs. As I expect Y to be longer than the Rav4 (but more tapered in the rear), it makes a 7-seat config easier.

Hard to say what Tesla will do; time will tell. But 7-seat configs are both A) possible, and B) have market appeal. Remember, Tesla doesn't sell dozens of different vehicle models, each to its own niche; it needs to fill in as many niches with each model as it can if it wants to move 500k 3 / 700k Y per year.

(The easiest 7-seat config, IMHO, would be rear-facing seats in the back. That way you maximize hip/shoulder room despite the rear taper)

 

[MXWing]

The X is tight with the third row. It's unlikely the Y would have a third row. The Y doesn't need a third row to sell either.

Anything is possible, of course.

Complete speculation but I believe the X in the future gets reworked from the current vehicle.

- Seating for 8 with dual rows of 3. Production sure would be simplified if you reuse the S rear row.

It would be be able to compete with vehicles like the Toyota Highlander.

- It would be controversial but.... no more FWD. I can name a lot of the pros of the FWD, but I believe the cons outweigh the pros. I would factor in cons that Tesla manufacturing and Tesla shareholders would consider, but not the consumer.

 

[MXWing]

I only expect the Y to be slightly smaller than the X (internal volume), and almost as long (reducing length increases, not decreases, aero drag). ~20% less cargo space than the X = Rav4 sized (Rav4 = highest selling SUV in the US). In varying markets / generations, Rav4 has been offered in 7-seat configs. As I expect Y to be longer than the Rav4 (but more tapered in the rear), it makes a 7-seat config easier.

Hard to say what Tesla will do; time will tell. But 7-seat configs are both A) possible, and B) have market appeal. Remember, Tesla doesn't sell dozens of different vehicle models, each to its own niche; it needs to fill in as many niches with each model as it can if it wants to move 500k 3 / 700k Y per year.

(The easiest 7-seat config, IMHO, would be rear-facing seats. That way you maximize hip/shoulder room despite the rear taper)

7 seat config of the S doesn't work -that well- so the Y would have the same issue.

IMHO, the Y should aim to seat 5 and store a lot of cargo. The X I would suggest is redesigned to seat 8 with dual triple rows.

Y takes on midsized SUV market. X takes on larger SUV/minivan market.

 

[Thumper]

My 2¢. I was super impressed on first use of Drive-ON-Nav implementation in our M3. I found the lane change seemed too delayed unless I used Mad Max.

With the ongoing switchover to smart meters, there should be lots of old dumb meters available to use in apartments and condos to accurately charge users for their EV charging. Thoughts?

When will we see a stretch X with two or more falcon wing doors per side? Has to be the baddest possible red-carpet mobile!

 

[Carl Raymond]

They are running out of topics.

Workplace safety concerns? Busted. Worst finding from CALOSHA was a misplaced extension cord.
High rates of production scrap? Never even hit the bottom line.
SEC investigation? Wrapped, no real impact, and no impact to the bottom line.
Lawsuits related to Model 3 production and share price? Tossed out by the judge.
Elon is eccentric? So f'ing what. The dude delivers.
Parking lots full of unsold cars? Oh right, they all got sold.
Can't make money selling cars? Ha!

The only thing I see left in the quiver for shorts to grab is another push on the DOJ story. But that's a straw, not an arrow.

The media are now acutely aware that Tesla has proven themselves and won public approval, and that publishing FUD stories is embarrassingly transparent and damages the credibility of their masthead and the reputation of any journalists with byline attached. Readers will already be questioning how the recent news of a smashingly successful quarter can possibly align with all the negative press they previously read.

The journos also come across as damned unpatriotic if they now dare to throw mud on this home grown success story. There's a grotesque double standard where these publications are happy to wave the flag to enlist your sons/daughters to fight for oil in Iraq, but then pooh pooh a company which builds an unbelievably good product that removes the need for oil in the first place. There's only one place such a double standard can exist - in the boardrooms of big oil and big auto. If more FUD is published, it's pretty clear to readers who's funding it, directly or indirectly.

 

[M3Rider]

I only expect the Y to be slightly smaller than the X (internal volume), and almost as long (reducing length increases, not decreases, aero drag). ~20% less cargo space than the X = Rav4 sized (Rav4 = highest selling SUV in the US). In varying markets / generations, Rav4 has been offered in 7-seat configs. As I expect Y to be longer than the Rav4 (but more tapered in the rear), it makes a 7-seat config easier.

Hard to say what Tesla will do; time will tell. But 7-seat configs are both A) possible, and B) have market appeal. Remember, Tesla doesn't sell dozens of different vehicle models, each to its own niche; it needs to fill in as many niches with each model as it can if it wants to move 500k 3 / 700k Y per year.

(The easiest 7-seat config, IMHO, would be rear-facing seats in the back. That way you maximize hip/shoulder room despite the rear taper)

This could be an option, replacement of cargo space for extra $, definitely does not need to be a standard config.

 

[Words of HABIT]

GM offers buyouts to 18,000 employees - CNN
GM share price up 9% today on the backs of their latest earnings report, so they are doing well, right?
Perhaps not well enough. GM offers buy-outs to 18,000 US White Collar workers.